Geopolitics
In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:
- A Bottom For Miners?
- Mish thinks this may be a good purchasing window
- Hit To Housing
- Rising interest rates are kryptonite to home prices
- Vanishing Jobs
- Trump can't replace the jobs lost to automation
- The Year Of The Iconoclast
- Anti-establishment platforms gather steam around the world
After years and years of declining/0% interest rates, the trend may be reversing. Market interest rates have risen faster over the past month than in decades.
Chris and Mish see this as having implications that will ripple through all asset classes. As Mish warns:
I’m watching interest rates just rise and rise. And the thing here is everyone’s betting on this massive inflationary scenario under Trump. I’m not sure I get it. Now, long term, we can all look at this and say, “Yeah, he’s going to take less money in in taxes, he’s going to waste more on infrastructure, he wants to increase military spending.” Of those, the only one I agree with is lowering taxes but the analysis is negative, negative, negative from Congressional CBO and all the people who figure this stuff out.
So we’ve got this surge in interest rates and money pouring into the dollar. The dollar’s going higher. I look at all of this and I think, “Hmm, a surge in interest rates. Ah, it’s likely to affect an ugly market.” The rising US dollar impacts exports in a negative fashion. The stock market is incredibly overvalued. And we know what generally happens when interest rates rise: I’m looking at a potential deflationary bust. Especially when we factor in Trump’s trade policies that might very well cause a global trade war.
Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Off The Cuff: Repercussions Of Rising Rates
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonIn this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:
- A Bottom For Miners?
- Mish thinks this may be a good purchasing window
- Hit To Housing
- Rising interest rates are kryptonite to home prices
- Vanishing Jobs
- Trump can't replace the jobs lost to automation
- The Year Of The Iconoclast
- Anti-establishment platforms gather steam around the world
After years and years of declining/0% interest rates, the trend may be reversing. Market interest rates have risen faster over the past month than in decades.
Chris and Mish see this as having implications that will ripple through all asset classes. As Mish warns:
I’m watching interest rates just rise and rise. And the thing here is everyone’s betting on this massive inflationary scenario under Trump. I’m not sure I get it. Now, long term, we can all look at this and say, “Yeah, he’s going to take less money in in taxes, he’s going to waste more on infrastructure, he wants to increase military spending.” Of those, the only one I agree with is lowering taxes but the analysis is negative, negative, negative from Congressional CBO and all the people who figure this stuff out.
So we’ve got this surge in interest rates and money pouring into the dollar. The dollar’s going higher. I look at all of this and I think, “Hmm, a surge in interest rates. Ah, it’s likely to affect an ugly market.” The rising US dollar impacts exports in a negative fashion. The stock market is incredibly overvalued. And we know what generally happens when interest rates rise: I’m looking at a potential deflationary bust. Especially when we factor in Trump’s trade policies that might very well cause a global trade war.
Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Executive Summary
- How the Deep State/"shadow government" came to be
- A number of "quiet coups" have concentrated power over the decades
- The moral hypocrisy of today's ruling elite and the public's growing rebellion against it
- The key success factor the current people's coup will need in order to triumph
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Power Struggle Unfolding Before Our Eyes available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part 1, we reviewed six narratives that seek to “explain” Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2016 presidential election. We then distilled these narratives down into three categories: moral claims, elite machinations and structural economic/social issues.
I propose that the most comprehensive explanatory narrative of Trump’s improbable victory is The People Staged a Coup D’Etat.
Threats to Democracy
To understand this narrative, we must first examine the structure of the American system of governance and the previous “quiet coups” that consolidated power in new elites.
In broad brush, the U.S. Republic was designed to be run by elites—hence the Electoral College and the bicameral legislature with a senate overseeing the rabble of the House of Representatives.
The founders—particularly James Monroe and his allies—were acutely aware that the greatest threats to an enduring democracy were a tyranny of the majority, a majority that undermined the civil liberties for all, or an elite whose powers could not be constrained. This is the purpose of the balance of powers between the Executive, legislative and judicial branches of the federal government.
But these structural efforts to restrain a tyranny of the majority or an above-the-law ruling elite, the U.S. has experienced both a tyranny of the majority—the Jim Crow racial discrimination that was institutionalized in the Southern states until the mid-1960s—and a ruling elite that is above the law.
I would argue that the current ruling elite (neocon, neoliberal) personified by Hillary Clinton, is effectively a force unto itself, i.e. above the law.
The roots of this ruling elite’s expansive power can be traced to the 1940s rise of the National Security State, the catch-all term for the institutions (CIA, Department of Defense) established by…
Why The Ruling Elite Are Becoming Frightened
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- How the Deep State/"shadow government" came to be
- A number of "quiet coups" have concentrated power over the decades
- The moral hypocrisy of today's ruling elite and the public's growing rebellion against it
- The key success factor the current people's coup will need in order to triumph
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Power Struggle Unfolding Before Our Eyes available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part 1, we reviewed six narratives that seek to “explain” Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2016 presidential election. We then distilled these narratives down into three categories: moral claims, elite machinations and structural economic/social issues.
I propose that the most comprehensive explanatory narrative of Trump’s improbable victory is The People Staged a Coup D’Etat.
Threats to Democracy
To understand this narrative, we must first examine the structure of the American system of governance and the previous “quiet coups” that consolidated power in new elites.
In broad brush, the U.S. Republic was designed to be run by elites—hence the Electoral College and the bicameral legislature with a senate overseeing the rabble of the House of Representatives.
The founders—particularly James Monroe and his allies—were acutely aware that the greatest threats to an enduring democracy were a tyranny of the majority, a majority that undermined the civil liberties for all, or an elite whose powers could not be constrained. This is the purpose of the balance of powers between the Executive, legislative and judicial branches of the federal government.
But these structural efforts to restrain a tyranny of the majority or an above-the-law ruling elite, the U.S. has experienced both a tyranny of the majority—the Jim Crow racial discrimination that was institutionalized in the Southern states until the mid-1960s—and a ruling elite that is above the law.
I would argue that the current ruling elite (neocon, neoliberal) personified by Hillary Clinton, is effectively a force unto itself, i.e. above the law.
The roots of this ruling elite’s expansive power can be traced to the 1940s rise of the National Security State, the catch-all term for the institutions (CIA, Department of Defense) established by…
Executive Summary
- Recognizing manipulation
- Absorbing information on your own terms
- Dealing with propagandized friends & family without ruining relationships
- Healing the polarization the propaganda creates
If you have not yet read Part 1: We're Being Played available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Staying In Control
Personally I do not have a TV precisely because ‘they’ are so good at what they do. I do not trust myself to resist their efforts because their methods are beyond my ability to resist 24x7x365.
I can maintain my vigilance for only so long, before I give up and give in. What I’m trying to say here is that it is not a sign of any weakness on your part if you have been taken in by their methods, only that you are human. There is no shame in being played, it’s a function of how you and I are wired.
If I did have a TV, I would absolutely not allow the sound to be on during commercials, and even better I would get a TiVo or its equivalent and skip past commercials.
But we can control how much we get played by simply not exposing ourselves to too much of the junk.
Awareness is your first key to not being played. It’s your first line of defense. Avoiding unnecessary propaganda/subliminal stimuli is your second key.
So staying in control of ‘your’ thoughts and emotions is as simple, and as hard, as being aware of the efforts to sway and/or implant ideas in your head and then avoiding those efforts as much as possible.
The benefit of doing so is a happier and more authentically connected life. After all, it is your ideas and gifts the world needs, not your regurgitation of someone else’s.
Also, advertising is largely built upon the idea of…
How To Protect Yourself From Persuasion & Propaganda
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- Recognizing manipulation
- Absorbing information on your own terms
- Dealing with propagandized friends & family without ruining relationships
- Healing the polarization the propaganda creates
If you have not yet read Part 1: We're Being Played available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Staying In Control
Personally I do not have a TV precisely because ‘they’ are so good at what they do. I do not trust myself to resist their efforts because their methods are beyond my ability to resist 24x7x365.
I can maintain my vigilance for only so long, before I give up and give in. What I’m trying to say here is that it is not a sign of any weakness on your part if you have been taken in by their methods, only that you are human. There is no shame in being played, it’s a function of how you and I are wired.
If I did have a TV, I would absolutely not allow the sound to be on during commercials, and even better I would get a TiVo or its equivalent and skip past commercials.
But we can control how much we get played by simply not exposing ourselves to too much of the junk.
Awareness is your first key to not being played. It’s your first line of defense. Avoiding unnecessary propaganda/subliminal stimuli is your second key.
So staying in control of ‘your’ thoughts and emotions is as simple, and as hard, as being aware of the efforts to sway and/or implant ideas in your head and then avoiding those efforts as much as possible.
The benefit of doing so is a happier and more authentically connected life. After all, it is your ideas and gifts the world needs, not your regurgitation of someone else’s.
Also, advertising is largely built upon the idea of…
In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:
- Impact Of A Trump Presidency On The Markets
- What will the most likely trends be?
- Plummeting Bond Prices
- Good or bad?
- The Unbearable Lightness Of Stocks
- Rising prices in the face of rising interest rates
- Gold's Prospects
- Inflation? Higher rates? What will it mean for gold?
Axel and Chris address the increasing sell-off in the bond market, which can also be described as the sudden rising of interest rates. In an over-indebted financial system as ours, rising rates will make it more expensive to service the outstanding debt, placing increasing headwinds on economic growth. Right now, the stock market is ignoring that — instead, it's pricing for perfection. Axel warns that this "oddity" will need to correct soon, one way or the other.
Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Off The Cuff: Multiplying Market Oddities
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonIn this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:
- Impact Of A Trump Presidency On The Markets
- What will the most likely trends be?
- Plummeting Bond Prices
- Good or bad?
- The Unbearable Lightness Of Stocks
- Rising prices in the face of rising interest rates
- Gold's Prospects
- Inflation? Higher rates? What will it mean for gold?
Axel and Chris address the increasing sell-off in the bond market, which can also be described as the sudden rising of interest rates. In an over-indebted financial system as ours, rising rates will make it more expensive to service the outstanding debt, placing increasing headwinds on economic growth. Right now, the stock market is ignoring that — instead, it's pricing for perfection. Axel warns that this "oddity" will need to correct soon, one way or the other.
Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:
- Deconstructing The Election Results
- Why the upset happened
- Insurmountable Odds?
- Trump inherits a country in tremendous debt
- The Sell-off In Bonds
- Is the world's biggest bubble bursting?
- The Age Of The Iconoclast
- Brexit + Trump is just the start of this age of upsets
So much to talk about this week…. Chris and John deconstruct Trump's upset win as well as the tremendous challenges he faces, inheriting a grossly overleveraged economy that is grossly overdue for a market correction. They're also are extremely concerned by the sharp acceleration we've seen this week in the sell-off in the bond market. As a reminder, the size of the bond market dwarfs other financial assets (except derivatives). It is "for all the marbles", as they say.
Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Off The Cuff: The Sell-Off In Bonds
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonIn this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:
- Deconstructing The Election Results
- Why the upset happened
- Insurmountable Odds?
- Trump inherits a country in tremendous debt
- The Sell-off In Bonds
- Is the world's biggest bubble bursting?
- The Age Of The Iconoclast
- Brexit + Trump is just the start of this age of upsets
So much to talk about this week…. Chris and John deconstruct Trump's upset win as well as the tremendous challenges he faces, inheriting a grossly overleveraged economy that is grossly overdue for a market correction. They're also are extremely concerned by the sharp acceleration we've seen this week in the sell-off in the bond market. As a reminder, the size of the bond market dwarfs other financial assets (except derivatives). It is "for all the marbles", as they say.
Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Community
Prepare Direct
Learn more