Services Inflation; The Speed of Science PREVIEW This week, it was hard to sort out the events that caused the various market moves. Here were the U.S. data releases this week: Retail Sales: headline unchanged, expected +0.2% [Fri] Consumer Price Index: headline +0.38% m/m, expected +0.2% [Thu] Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.29% m/m, “final demand” PPI +0.4% m/m, expected +0.2% [Wed] From… Services Inflation; The Speed of Science PREVIEW This week, it was hard to sort out the events that caused the various market moves. Here were the U.S. data releases this week: Retail Sales: headline unchanged, expected +0.2% [Fri] Consumer Price Index: headline +0.38% m/m, expected +0.2% [Thu] Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.29% m/m, “final demand” PPI +0.4% m/m, expected +0.2% [Wed] From…
Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK PREVIEW Payrolls looked “surprisingly strong” on Friday, with the headline number at +263,000, with +250,000 expected. That wasn’t a big difference, but markets sold off hard immediately following this release – except for oil and gasoline, which had great days, apparently unaffected by payrolls one way or the other. Wolf Richter, who is usually on top… Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK PREVIEW Payrolls looked “surprisingly strong” on Friday, with the headline number at +263,000, with +250,000 expected. That wasn’t a big difference, but markets sold off hard immediately following this release – except for oil and gasoline, which had great days, apparently unaffected by payrolls one way or the other. Wolf Richter, who is usually on top…
65 Billion Pound Solvency Problem and The Hybrid War Explained PREVIEW The big market-moving news this week – as you probably know by now – was the solvency problem in the leveraged UK pension funds. (Leveraged? Pension funds???) The UK pension funds were holding UK sovereign debt, the price of which has been plunging (due to rising rates), which wouldn’t normally matter (just hold until maturity,… 65 Billion Pound Solvency Problem and The Hybrid War Explained PREVIEW The big market-moving news this week – as you probably know by now – was the solvency problem in the leveraged UK pension funds. (Leveraged? Pension funds???) The UK pension funds were holding UK sovereign debt, the price of which has been plunging (due to rising rates), which wouldn’t normally matter (just hold until maturity,…
A Huge Dollar Rally, and A Tipping Point PREVIEW The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday; looking forward, Powell is hawkish, and talks about maintaining a “restrictive policy for some time.” For those who want to get it from the horses mouth, and have a lot of time to kill, you can listen here (Source – FOMC/YouTube). Wolf Richter’s take on… A Huge Dollar Rally, and A Tipping Point PREVIEW The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday; looking forward, Powell is hawkish, and talks about maintaining a “restrictive policy for some time.” For those who want to get it from the horses mouth, and have a lot of time to kill, you can listen here (Source – FOMC/YouTube). Wolf Richter’s take on…
FedEx Projects Global Recession; Spike-Induced Pellagra? PREVIEW The Consumer Price Index release on Tuesday (expected: -0.1% m/m, actual: +0.12% m/m) had the strongest impact on prices this week; equities sold off hard (more than 2% in five minutes). The S&P 500 Index (SPX) eventually closed the day at the dead lows, which is never a good sign, since it means “there was… FedEx Projects Global Recession; Spike-Induced Pellagra? PREVIEW The Consumer Price Index release on Tuesday (expected: -0.1% m/m, actual: +0.12% m/m) had the strongest impact on prices this week; equities sold off hard (more than 2% in five minutes). The S&P 500 Index (SPX) eventually closed the day at the dead lows, which is never a good sign, since it means “there was…
ECB Raises Rates; The Golden Ruble PREVIEW The market-moving event this week: the European Central Bank decided to raise rates by 75 bp, so now deposits are yielding (are you ready?): a grand total of 0.75%. Back up the truck! Note: the ECB previously had negative rates from 2016-2022. Wolf has the charts: ECB Shocked, Shocked, to Find that Inflation is Going… ECB Raises Rates; The Golden Ruble PREVIEW The market-moving event this week: the European Central Bank decided to raise rates by 75 bp, so now deposits are yielding (are you ready?): a grand total of 0.75%. Back up the truck! Note: the ECB previously had negative rates from 2016-2022. Wolf has the charts: ECB Shocked, Shocked, to Find that Inflation is Going…
Be Careful Out There; Technocracy in a Nutshell PREVIEW Payrolls came in reasonably strong on Friday; the headline number was +315,000, with the labor force growing by 786,000, a fairly brisk increase, marking a new high for the labor force. That means a lot more people started actually looking for work. (Series: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) – CLF16OV, civilian labor force 16 years… Be Careful Out There; Technocracy in a Nutshell PREVIEW Payrolls came in reasonably strong on Friday; the headline number was +315,000, with the labor force growing by 786,000, a fairly brisk increase, marking a new high for the labor force. That means a lot more people started actually looking for work. (Series: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) – CLF16OV, civilian labor force 16 years…
Cold Water from Jackson Hole; Drought Meet Hydropower! PREVIEW Every summer, the Fed throws a big party at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Fed chairman typically gives a speech about the money matters of current interest, and anyone who is anyone in the markets-and-finance biz gets invited (Source). “The Kansas City Fed will host its 45th annual conference starting today at the Jackson Lake Lodge… Cold Water from Jackson Hole; Drought Meet Hydropower! PREVIEW Every summer, the Fed throws a big party at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Fed chairman typically gives a speech about the money matters of current interest, and anyone who is anyone in the markets-and-finance biz gets invited (Source). “The Kansas City Fed will host its 45th annual conference starting today at the Jackson Lake Lodge…
No Pivot For You; Build Back Better Revealed PREVIEW The market-moving news this week had to do with the prospects for another Fed rate increase. The information was delivered to the great unwashed via the “Fed Minutes Release” on Wednesday, where it sure sounded like more rate increases were already baked into the Fed’s cake: Fed sees interest rate hikes continuing until inflation eases… No Pivot For You; Build Back Better Revealed PREVIEW The market-moving news this week had to do with the prospects for another Fed rate increase. The information was delivered to the great unwashed via the “Fed Minutes Release” on Wednesday, where it sure sounded like more rate increases were already baked into the Fed’s cake: Fed sees interest rate hikes continuing until inflation eases…
Whither Inflation, and The Monkeypox Gambit PREVIEW The big market/economic news this week was the Consumer Price Index. If you were pro-Grandpa, you focused on the month over month figure of 0%, which Grandpa himself gloated about; if you were anti-Grandpa, you focused on year over year, which was 8.48%. Below, find the y/y chart: it shows the worst inflation since the… Whither Inflation, and The Monkeypox Gambit PREVIEW The big market/economic news this week was the Consumer Price Index. If you were pro-Grandpa, you focused on the month over month figure of 0%, which Grandpa himself gloated about; if you were anti-Grandpa, you focused on year over year, which was 8.48%. Below, find the y/y chart: it shows the worst inflation since the…