Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills PREVIEW I’ll lead again with my new focus: rate increases. Where are we? Last week: July 27, 92%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2, 50%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase This week: July 27: 71%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2: 44%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase Source Not much change. The prospects for a rate increase are similar to last week,… Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills PREVIEW I’ll lead again with my new focus: rate increases. Where are we? Last week: July 27, 92%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2, 50%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase This week: July 27: 71%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2: 44%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase Source Not much change. The prospects for a rate increase are similar to last week,…
Fed Rate Increase Still on Track; Fighting to The Last Ukrainian PREVIEW My focus this week: what are market expectations are for Fed rate increases, and prospects for a recession? Futures markets predictions for Fed rate increases located here. Last week: • July 27, 71%: 2.25% – 2.50% +0.75% vs. now • Nov 2, 61%: 3.00% – 3.25% +1.5% vs. now This week: • July 27, 92%:… Fed Rate Increase Still on Track; Fighting to The Last Ukrainian PREVIEW My focus this week: what are market expectations are for Fed rate increases, and prospects for a recession? Futures markets predictions for Fed rate increases located here. Last week: • July 27, 71%: 2.25% – 2.50% +0.75% vs. now • Nov 2, 61%: 3.00% – 3.25% +1.5% vs. now This week: • July 27, 92%:…
Credit Contraction; Recession Indicators Grow PREVIEW First, I have some bad news. My data provider decided to stop shipping futures data to me (it was a free service which I’ve used for over five years) – the last updated value was Thursday at end of day. So, my charts for all futures contracts in this report end on Thursday. Now, I… Credit Contraction; Recession Indicators Grow PREVIEW First, I have some bad news. My data provider decided to stop shipping futures data to me (it was a free service which I’ve used for over five years) – the last updated value was Thursday at end of day. So, my charts for all futures contracts in this report end on Thursday. Now, I…
Dead Cat Bounce; A New Reserve Currency PREVIEW The markets were mixed for most of the week. However on Friday, there was a bit of a surprise rally in equities. Financial Entertainment News thought the pop on Friday was due to this: The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said consumers expect inflation to rise at a 5.3% annualized rate as of the… Dead Cat Bounce; A New Reserve Currency PREVIEW The markets were mixed for most of the week. However on Friday, there was a bit of a surprise rally in equities. Financial Entertainment News thought the pop on Friday was due to this: The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said consumers expect inflation to rise at a 5.3% annualized rate as of the…
Fed Raises Rates 75 Basis Points; Europeans Back Immediate Peace PREVIEW The big news of the week: on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a rate increase of +0.75% (75 bp) to 1.75%. This was hinted at on Monday, and as per the Fed press conference at 14:30 Eastern on Wednesday, the rate increase was blamed on last week’s surprisingly hot CPI print (0.97%… Fed Raises Rates 75 Basis Points; Europeans Back Immediate Peace PREVIEW The big news of the week: on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a rate increase of +0.75% (75 bp) to 1.75%. This was hinted at on Monday, and as per the Fed press conference at 14:30 Eastern on Wednesday, the rate increase was blamed on last week’s surprisingly hot CPI print (0.97%…
Hot CPI print; Unconditional Surrender PREVIEW The big news: on Friday at 8:30 am EST, CPI came in hot: +1.0% m/m, or an incredible +12% if you annualize the number versus last month’s +0.3% m/m. This really moved the markets, some charged higher, others plunged. For the most part, it was a risk-off move. The buck had a huge rally –… Hot CPI print; Unconditional Surrender PREVIEW The big news: on Friday at 8:30 am EST, CPI came in hot: +1.0% m/m, or an incredible +12% if you annualize the number versus last month’s +0.3% m/m. This really moved the markets, some charged higher, others plunged. For the most part, it was a risk-off move. The buck had a huge rally –…
Oil in Storage Drops Again; Rising Disability as a Signal PREVIEW Oil hit a new multi-decade (since 2008) weekly closing high this week, up +4.64 to 118.85. There was talk about OPEC+ pumping more oil to make up for Russia sanctions (now that Russia’s oil is now headed off to China and India), but I guess it wasn’t enough. Prices moved steadily higher. Interestingly, the open… Oil in Storage Drops Again; Rising Disability as a Signal PREVIEW Oil hit a new multi-decade (since 2008) weekly closing high this week, up +4.64 to 118.85. There was talk about OPEC+ pumping more oil to make up for Russia sanctions (now that Russia’s oil is now headed off to China and India), but I guess it wasn’t enough. Prices moved steadily higher. Interestingly, the open…
Technocrat Kissinger Suggests Peace; Ed Dowd’s Church Picnic PREVIEW So, the reasonably big market move this week: SPX reversed its 7-week decline, and printed a strong-looking bullish reversal candle, but it was not enough to pull the skeptical forecaster back into an uptrend. The SPX move (+6.58%) came mostly on Thursday and Friday, alongside a bullish sector map (discretionary, energy, financials, and tech led)…. Technocrat Kissinger Suggests Peace; Ed Dowd’s Church Picnic PREVIEW So, the reasonably big market move this week: SPX reversed its 7-week decline, and printed a strong-looking bullish reversal candle, but it was not enough to pull the skeptical forecaster back into an uptrend. The SPX move (+6.58%) came mostly on Thursday and Friday, alongside a bullish sector map (discretionary, energy, financials, and tech led)….
Weekly Market Update: Russia War Heats Up; America’s Doctor MIA PREVIEW Well, last week I said to watch prices. This week, we saw prices explode higher, in virtually all of the commodities I track: Gold: +84.30 [+4.27%] Silver: +1.57 [+6.06%] XAU: +12.11 [+7.81%] Palladium: +626.27 [+26.97%] Crude: +21.76 [+19.22%] Copper: +0.43 [+8.76%] Lumber: +100.84 [+7.76%] USD: +2.15% EUR: -2.99% 10-year; -27 bp [to 1.70%] Risk assets… Weekly Market Update: Russia War Heats Up; America’s Doctor MIA PREVIEW Well, last week I said to watch prices. This week, we saw prices explode higher, in virtually all of the commodities I track: Gold: +84.30 [+4.27%] Silver: +1.57 [+6.06%] XAU: +12.11 [+7.81%] Palladium: +626.27 [+26.97%] Crude: +21.76 [+19.22%] Copper: +0.43 [+8.76%] Lumber: +100.84 [+7.76%] USD: +2.15% EUR: -2.99% 10-year; -27 bp [to 1.70%] Risk assets…
Invasion Thursday; Watch Prices PREVIEW So, the invasion I thought wouldn’t happen – happened last Thursday. The press, and the Biden-Handlers were simply overjoyed with this outcome. Out with COVID, In with Invasion! Yay distraction! The timing was impeccable. If the Biden-Handlers had planned the invasion themselves, I don’t think it could have possibly been better-timed. [Totally unrelated – I… Invasion Thursday; Watch Prices PREVIEW So, the invasion I thought wouldn’t happen – happened last Thursday. The press, and the Biden-Handlers were simply overjoyed with this outcome. Out with COVID, In with Invasion! Yay distraction! The timing was impeccable. If the Biden-Handlers had planned the invasion themselves, I don’t think it could have possibly been better-timed. [Totally unrelated – I…
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