Home Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK

Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK

The User's Profile davefairtex October 9, 2022
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Payrolls looked “surprisingly strong” on Friday, with the headline number at +263,000, with +250,000 expected. That wasn’t a big difference, but markets sold off hard immediately following this release – except for oil and gasoline, which had great days, apparently unaffected by payrolls one way or the other.

Wolf Richter, who is usually on top of everything data-related, remains perplexed as to what is causing the labor market to remain so tight. He has lots of useful charts, here: (Source – Wolf Richter). For me, the labor mystery is (perhaps unreasonably) simple: paraphrasing Clinton – it’s disability, stupid. Here are my receipts: this month, self-reported disability in the population 16+ increased by a huge 907,000 people. Many of those are old people, but some (around a third) are 16-64. I claim a constantly-rising number of self-reported disabled people of all ages ends up producing a “suprisingly tight” labor market. Even if some of the self-reported disabled people can still work to some degree, the magnitude of the change (increase) in disability (almost a million people in just one month!) will end up shrinking the labor force, both by decreasing the number of able-workers, as well as increasing the need for a family caregiver which will also take an able worker out of the labor market to take care of newly-disabled mom, dad, husband/wife, or child. Most people cannot afford a home-care nurse aid.

Black line in the chart below is the smoothed 12-MA version of the choppier red line (actual series); the smoothed line is better at showing the trend, but it introduces a delay also. If you just look at the red line 2021-present, that’s the 3.2 million newly disabled people since 2021. Did something happen in 2021? I forget. It was so long ago. [My guess for the large dip in first half of 2020: a bunch of the older people in the CNP Disabled 16+ group died during year one of the pandemic.]

Here’s one more “surprisingly strong” labor market indicator: FRED series LNS12032195, or “I’m working part time, due to economic conditions/slack work.” See how it screamed higher in 2008? And look where it is now – unchanged. In 2008, we didn’t know we were in a recession until about 4-6 months in, and so this indicator was really useful because it gave us advance warning. This time, post-pandemic, the “pulse” of the slack work series hasn’t moved above resting, even though we’re probably in a recession right this minute. Is it different this time? Yes. I claim the massive increase in disability (workers and non-workers) makes it so there is no “slack work” right now. Add to that the vax mandates that have caused resignations and early retirement – which I don’t have numbers for just yet.

Crude screamed higher this week, completely ignoring payrolls – rising 13.15 [+16.54%] to 92.64.  Crude rose five days out of five, jumping above the 50 MA on Friday for the first time since July. That’s a bullish signal. The weekly candle pattern (confirmed doji – a sort of swing low) was given a top rating by my candle model, and crude is now in a strong uptrend too. This all happened because the pesky OPEC+ cartel decided to drop production by two million barrels/day, after watching the Biden-Handler Strategic Petroleum Reserve pillaging push oil prices lower for several months. (n.b. if the Biden-Handlers respond by increasing the SPR release to 3 mbpd, that will work for about 20 weeks, after which the SPR will be empty.)

OPEC+ Agrees to Sharply Cut Oil Output in Blow to Biden (Source – Epoch Times). “Draft White House talking points to the U.S. Treasury Department, which were reported by CNN, described the expected cuts as a ‘total disaster’ and stated that they could be seen as a ‘hostile act.’” Apparently, the mostly-black-and-brown oil-resource-colonies aren’t allowed to slow their own national oil production because the racist Biden-Handlers say they can’t. See, I can racialize things too.

And now, the SPR-pillaging report: it came in at 6.1 million barrels this week. Is it illegal to use public resources to fund a political campaign? It sure should be – the “contribution” comes to $574 million this week alone. Once again, our public “emergency energy-parachute” is being used as a Biden-Handler stay-in-power campaign contribution. As we can see above, however, the oil market is now “looking through” these releases – so the Biden-Handlers are now draining the reserves we all paid for to no purpose at all. Water is now entering their re-election campaign boat faster than they can bail.

And now, after a full year of draining the SPR, word of the pillaging has finally made it to the MSM. Only a year late. But that’s the MSM for you – always late to the party. “Oh wow, no WMD In Iraq!”

Biden says he’ll release 10 million more barrels from the dwindling ‘oil piggy bank’ after OPEC’s production cuts — but this is the big risk with more withdrawals (Source – Yahoo Finance).

Gold rallied strongly at the start of the week, but ran into resistance at the 50 MA and then fell back on Thursday and Friday. Even so, gold still managed to climb [+37.30 +2.23%] back above 1709.30. Gold/Euros did even better [+42.79 +2.50%], ending the week well above the 50 MA. The swing low candle print for gold/U.S. dollar had a very high rating; gold may be at or near a low, although if there is a strong rally in the buck, that might cause some trouble. I’d feel a little more secure about the weekly reversal if gold could close above the 50 MA.

Silver did reasonably well also, climbing 1.22 [+6.39%] to 20.25 – and this is after falling for 3 days starting on Wednesday. Perhaps that 8% rally on Monday was a bit too much. That said, OI remains very low for silver, so even after the big Monday rally, the banksters haven’t jumped in short; they still appear to be setting up for a move higher. Even after the big move this week, OI is actually lower than it was last Friday. And silver is above the 50 MA too.

The buck moved in opposition to the metals, selling off in the first half of the week, then rallying strongly in the second half, ending the week up 0.53% to 112.68. Looks like the whole “pivot” fuss turned around after it became clear the BOE wasn’t going to restart its Quantitative Easing program. My guess: the bankster cartel really doesn’t want to restart QE; if they do, they will be blamed for the tidal wave of energy-inflation that appears poised to destroy European industry, as well as the financial well-being of the Western Plebes overall, including the pensions. Call it the energy-inflation wave the “You’ll Own Nothing” campaign. If the banksters raise rates, and the energy-inflation still rips, they can always say “We tried our best. Blame Putin! Or maybe Climate Change! But don’t blame us.” Long story short – a pivot may still be a ways off into the future.

Equities rallied for the first two days this week, then unwound much of the gains on Thursday and Friday, ending the week up 1.51%, printing one of those “shooting star” candles on the weekly chart, which looks fairly bearish. S&P 500 (SPX) remains in a downtrend; no new closing low this week, but the close on Friday did look ugly.

The most recent, exciting, maybe-its-a-pivot risk-on rally only lasted a few days this time around.  Yet – contrast SPX with gold. Which looks healthier? SPX didn’t retain much of its upside move by end of week, while both gold and silver did manage to hold on to a fair amount of gain. This, on a week where the dollar ended up higher. Not sure that makes for a bottom for the metals, but it does provide hints that there is a fair amount of buying interest.

Problem is, when the worm finally turns, the actual metal will vanish in seconds. I do wonder how rapidly Trudeau will change the rules on PSLV when this finally happens. A possible rationalization: “Gotta have silver to make solar panels, you know – so sorry, I have to confiscate your PSLV holdings. Here’s a tiny fraction of what they’re worth. Don’t complain, or else you’re a racist and you stand with the Swastika. Hail Climate Change!” The confiscation speech finishes with the usual straight-arm salute. Note: if you have enough shares of PSLV, you can actually take delivery. But you have to have a lot of shares to do this, and it takes about a month. From what I understand anyway; I’ve never actually tried it. (I’m long PSLV. Wish me luck.)

And crude oil has reversed back into an uptrend.  Through this week’s price action, Mr. Market is telling everyone who will listen that OPEC+ probably can and will beat SPR pillaging. The Biden-Handlers are not pleased. What will they do?  Feed Saudi Arabia to the Iranian Mullahs?  They might just be that crazy. After all the nuke talk, I don’t put any bit of stupidity past them.

And the buck appears to be heading to new highs. I suspect money is fleeing Europe once more. It’s about energy-inflation: loading the cost of the energy-inflation onto government debt, so the politicans can survive, while they simultaneously increase the possibility of EU breakup and sovereign default. Uh. Climate Change. Or stupidity. It’s hard to tell the difference sometimes.


3 stabbed, 1 fatally, in string of New York City subway attacks (Source – ABC);
“Police have made more than 600 arrests for illegal cutting instruments on the subway so far this year. Transit Chief Jason Wilcox said that’s a 95% increase from last year.”  Defund the Police? Or, maybe Federalize the Police, to take care of the crime wave, so those Biden-Handlers would then command a huge (armed) national police force.  Just think of all the raids!

Media Lying About Climate Change And Hurricanes (Source – shellenberger); NOAA: “We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major.”

BREAKING: CEO of US election software firm Konnech arrested for storing data on servers in China (Source – postmillenial); “Eugene Yu, the CEO of the software firm Konnech, has been arrested in connection to the storage of data on servers in China.” Note that literally the day before, the New York Times called it a “conspiracy theory.” (Source – gettr/kirk). Maybe we should try paper ballots counted by hand?


Gazprom resumes gas supply to Italy after weekend stoppage (Source – euronews)

Democrats Float an End to US Troop Protection for Gulf Nations After OPEC+ Production Cut (Source – Epoch Times); Here ya go, China.  We’re tired of protecting Saudi Arabia. Your turn now. I’m sure you guys won’t misuse your new power.

The EU reached a tentative deal to impose a price cap on the sale of Russian oil to third countries, Politico Europe reported on Tuesday citing diplomatic sources. (Source – RT); You over there. I’m talking to you, India. We forbid you to pay more than (say $60/bbl) for oil that you buy from Russia.  Otherwise, our Navy will…oh wait…you mean we don’t have a Navy?


Fauci Defends Funding of EcoHealth, Dismisses Lab Leak Theory (Source – ET); Did Peter Dazsak give someone an ultimatum?  “Defend me, and give me more funding, or else I flip.”

Batshit crazy: EcoHealth Alliance and Peter Daszak just got a NEW federal grant to research coronaviruses (Source – alexberenson)

Creepy Bill Gates Makes Ominious Prediction: ‘We’re Going To Have A Hung Election And A Civil War,’ Misinformation ‘May Bring It All To An End (Source – gatewaypundit); “One of the best-selling books last year was a book by Robert Kennedy, saying that I like to make money and kill millions of people with vaccines,” he said. “It’s wild that [that] sells well.”   Turns out that misinformation, in the COVID era, is when waaaay too many people start to talk about what you’ve been up to.

“…Normalcy only returns when we have largely (ha ha) vaccinated (ha ha) the entire (ha ha) global population.” (Source – gates/bitchute); at 0:50.

Beware the “Duper’s Delight”! (Source – mindtools); They get an endorphin high when they put one over on us. The bigger the con, the bigger the rush. Sometimes they giggle at very odd moments. Apparently, they can’t help it.

We could be in for a severe flu season. Here’s what to know. (Source –; Do they mention vitamin D? They do not.

Covid wave looms in Europe as booster campaign makes slow start (Source – CNN);  “European and British officials have endorsed the latest boosters only for a select groups of people, including the elderly and those with compromised immune systems…But willingness to get yet another shot, which could be a fourth or fifth for some, is wearing thin.”

Florida State Surgeon General recommends “against the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines for males ages 18-39 years old.” (Source – twitter/Ladapo)

Florida study shows mRNA COVID vaccines kill kids (Source – Steve Kirsh); Steve is a bit less restrained than Ladapo.

CDC V-safe Data: Hundreds of Thousands of Americans Sought Medical Care After COVID Vaccination (Source – CHD); “Some 782,900 people reported seeking medical attention, emergency room care and/or hospitalization following Covid-19 vaccination. Another 2.5 million people reported needing to miss school, work or other normal activities as a result of a health event after getting a Covid-19 vaccine.” The CDC covered up this data for 463 days.  We can now see why.  Out of roughly 10 million records; a 7.8/100 rate of seeking medical attention, and 25/100 missing school/work immediately following the shot roughly confirms the “1-dose/2-dose gap” we saw back in 2021.  (Source – CDC); 1-dose/2-dose gap: 14.6% (79.7% got 1-dose / 68% got 2-doses).  Our countrymen (and women) were telling us how awful the first shot was by refusing to get the second shot 14.6% of the time. We just had to read between the lines.

Australia has quietly stopped recommending more Covid vaccines for almost everyone under 50, and Norway under 65. (Source – berenson/substack); Australia was into “lockdowns for the unvaccinated” (i.e. restricting their activities) 11 months ago – so long ago I can barely remember.  Now, it’s No Booster For You, under-50s.

“Are The Kids Ok?” – VSRF. (Source – rumble/VSRF); a must-see 3:27 video, the posting of which got Dr. McCullough suspended from WEF/TWTR ahead of the election 30 days from now. Censored = must-see. An observation; if myocarditis weren’t so newly-common, they wouldn’t be spending time and effort to try and normalize it. I never knew myocarditis existed prior to 2021.

New study: A simple nasal wash reduces the risk of being hospitalized for COVID by >8X (Source – Steve Kirsh); spoiler alert: the ‘simple nasal wash’ is saline.

Rapid initiation of nasal saline irrigation to reduce severity in high-risk COVID+ outpatients (Source – sagepub);  Trial data link for the previous article; this appears to be a nasal spray RCT (povidone-iodine vs. saline) in high risk patients that failed, since there was virtually no difference in outcomes between placebo and treatment arms. Then (I’m guessing) the trial scientists noticed that…shockingly, none of the high-risk patients died, and very few were hospitalized, in either spray arm compared with much more unpleasant outcomes that happened to the matched people (BMI, age, etc) in the general population.  So, the answer: you can pick saline, or dilute povidone-iodine for your nasal spray.

According to this trial, it doesn’t appear to matter. Of course, the horribly corrupt NIH pretends not to know about nasal sprays. How about we Defund NIH?


Retired general David Petraeus predicts the US would destroy Russia’s military in Ukraine and sink its naval fleet if it used nuclear weapons (Source – businessinsider); General Petraeus appears to believe that nuclear wars can be won with conventional forces. His resume (source – KKR) shows he is on the Trilateral Commission, the Council on Foreign Relations, and he was DCI(A) under Obama, just to name a few.  He’s definitely in the Big Club. His comments provide a sense of what they are thinking.

There is no long-term prospect for peace and security in Europe without regime change in Russia (source – 19fortyfive); Mr. Mustache (John Bolton) loves Regime Change. Another, more outlier indicator. How about: we give him (and all his neocon friends) a rifle and a one-way coach ticket to Poland, so they can all run off and Drang Nach Osten.

The Dark Side of Ukraine (source – armstrong)

Sabotage cause of massive train disruption in northern Germany, rail operator says  (Source – DW); first pipelines, and now trains.

Europe faces deindustrialization and social unrest – Belgian PM (Source – azerbaycan24); “Our populations are getting invoices which are completely insane. At some point, it will snap. I understand that people are angry…people don’t have the means to pay it…some 64% of the country’s citizens were afraid of not being able to pay their energy bills which had reached a staggering average of €700 ($690) a month.”

Winter is coming. How many companies will the EU lose due to energy issues? My guess is, the national governments will step in and deficit-fund the massively increased cost of energy for a season, dumping it on the backs of the taxpayer to be “paid later.”  This will crush the Euro – buck should rally as a result. Will it cause sovereign defaults and the breakup of the EU?  The longer the “public energy-inflation bailout” continues, the more likely this happens. We all know energy bills of $700/month just aren’t sustainable, and it will end badly. For me, the question is just one of timing. What will cause the EU bondholders to finally snap and bail out wholesale – like they did with the Gilts in the UK?  Or – maybe – the public in Europe will revolt and say enough with the “sanctions”?  These are the options I see.

A second question: nuclear war. Will the WEF order their Young Global Leaders to calm down before it all really explodes? Or is an explosion the goal?  If a few cities get nuked, maybe the WEF imagines this will help address “Climate Change” and help them dodge the blame for all the deaths from the forced-vaccination campaigns? And of course they would attempt to blame Bad Vlad for all of it, say the nuclear war is all his fault, and as post-war punishment, they could try to turn Russia into a resource colony in order to provide fuel for their private jet travel. I really hope the WEF isn’t that stupid and suicidal.

In our Hybrid War, we are engaged in a Vaccine Campaign. It is now in its final phase. Most everywhere, the other side appears to be looking for a face-saving way out. Vax-crazy Australia stopping the boosters for the under-50 group is the largest, most recent indicator. It is as if your nutty Uncle has emerged from the basement looking somewhat more sane, after two years below the surface making crazy pan-banging noises at all hours of the day and night. And “Little Elf” Fauci appears to be fighting for survival. Why else would he fund Daszak – again?! He’s not crazy. My guess: someone put a (metaphorical?) gun to his head and he had no choice, on his way out the door.

The BLS disability numbers – still rising – point to a ticking clock as well as an order of magnitude assessment of vaccine injury. The total increase in disability (age 16+) since the start of 2021 is about 3.2 million people; workforce disability increase (age 16-64) is smaller, but still substantial at about 1.4 million. Why a ticking clock? Once the word gets out – once the dam breaks – this story will simply explode. Those 3.2 million people all have loved ones who will not be pleased. This is why censorship is so critical for the WEF’s plan, and the converse – once it breaks down, things will develop rapidly afterwards. In the meantime, labor market will (I’m guessing) remain tight, until the spike of disability from all the shots tapers off. Assuming it does taper off. I’ve heard other people predict cancers and a horrid 2023. Let’s hope the disability tapers off.

Looking at the WEF’s Vaccine Campaign tactics – imagine if Richard Nixon made it illegal for Vietnam war soldiers to speak of their experiences.  Imagine if he made it illegal for the news to report on how many troops were injured and died, if he disallowed the construction of a Vietnam war memorial, if there were no footage permitted to be shown from the war itself.  This appears to be the plan. “The Vietnam War is Safe & Effective. Deaths are very, very rare; the few wounded have had just minor wounds, they recovered quickly, and are now fine. We are winning. The Vietnamese people have hailed us as liberators.” Gosh doesn’t that feel great?  This is their story. No dissent or challenge is permitted. They just can’t risk it. History has shown them what happens if they allow people to say what really happened.

Regardless of this effort, the same mechanisms that turned Americans against the Vietnam war is doing the same thing for this Vaccine Campaign.  These include Personal Stories, Injuries and Deaths, Evidence of vaccine failure, Experts Reversing Positions, Reveals/Confessions from Insiders.   And of course, the body count.  They are censoring as much as possible to prevent it, but their effective censorship ability is at (maybe) 60%, and falling.  Gettr, gab, substack, rumble/bitchute/odysee (and truth social?) are where the cool kids hang out these days.  Only the squares remain on twitter/facebook/youtube. If you have a video “taken down” on youtube – it is now quickly reposted on rumble. Humanity’s “immune system” is now responding rapidly and well to the “WEF Vaccine Campaign censorship virus.”

I believe that the WEF are most afraid of stories.  Stories are human, emotional, Man is an emotional creature, and I’m guessing that’s why Dr McCullough got banned from TWTR for posting that video: the former pediatric ICU charge nurse telling her story about how she had to give chest compressions to yet another vaccine-injured child, the day before she was fired, so this little boy would not die.  She saw with her own eyes, again and again: The Kids Are Not OK. And nobody was allowed to report anything to VAERS.  [At 1:33 – the link – again (Rumble/VSRF)].   Nurses are tough because they have to be. Many see more death in one week than normals like me see during a lifetime. You can see it in their eyes, if you know what to look for. But this nurse didn’t get the combat-nurse Medal of Honor. Instead, she was fired. And WEF/Twitter did not dare let her story go out. They know what happens to The Campaign when soldiers like her are allowed to describe their real life experiences. So, McCullough had to get banned. And he did. For posting a VSRF video!

I hypothesize that The Reveal is still in the future – The Pfizer Papers: a hypothetical document that shows the WEF/Biden-Handlers knew that the shots would never work, and they will cause a great deal of disability and death. They did, you know. They knew. And they did it all anyway. And the document will be leaked, someday – probably to save someone’s ass. One wrinkle: if Bad Orange Man isn’t real careful, he’ll be the one they try to hang for it.  Say a 50/50 chance on that.

Any organization (you know who you are) that is participating in the organized mass-death-and-injury coverup will find themselves “in a difficult position” once The Reveal occurs. Maybe you should consider backing away from the censorship now? Turn over a new leaf, as it were, before its too late? After all you were just following orders.  And if you repent now, maybe we will forget what came before. It’s worth a shot, amirite?