davefairtex

Retail Sales Winner, SPR Refilled, and an Ebola Lab Leak??

There were just 2 reports this week, alongside the things I usually track: Retail Sales (RSAFS): +0.19% m/m, prior +0.51%m/m, +1.49% y/y. Recessionary. Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.54% m/m, prior -0.46% m/m, -0.45% y/y. Recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -22B (-0.27%) w/w, prior -0.02% w/w. Deflationary. Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): +7.7B (+0.05%) m/m, +0.1% y/y. Deflationary. […]

Buck Smashed, Metals Rally, and Bad News is Good News

There were two reports this week, plus the series I usually monitor: Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.18% m/m (prior +0.12% m/m); mildly inflationary. Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.04% m/m (prior -1.26% m/m); deflationary, declining-but-flattening; driven by energy. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -1.4B (-0.02% m/m), prior -0.51% m/m. deflationary; 2-year low. Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): -35B […]

Payrolls and Disability, The Dollar Turns Lower, & The Nanoparticle Pandemic

It was Payrolls Friday this week, along with a number of other events: Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS): +209k (0.13%) m/m, prior 0.20%. Slowing, but positive. Temp Help (TEMPHELPN): -56k (-1.86%) m/m; recession hint. Part-Time Work (LNS12032196): +124k (+13.08%) m/m; recession hint. Avg Hourly Earnings (CES0500000003): 33.58 (+0.36% m/m); inflationary. Employed 16-64, With a Disability (LNU02076955+LNU0207696): +153k […]

Huge Silver Deliveries; Populist Authoritarianism

There were a number of reports this week: Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -21B [-0.25%] w/w. Deflationary. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): +1.5% q/q, +6.74% y/y. Not adjusted for inflation. Personal Income (PI): +0.4% m/m. Inflationary. Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +1.72% m/m. New high. Expansionaary. Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES): -6.85% m/m. Recovery slowing. Heavy Truck Sales […]

Worker Shortages, Autism Prevalance, Reactor-Northwoods

One report to discuss today and then the Fed Balance Sheet: Housing Starts (HOUST): +291k [+21.7%], a huge move higher. May be seasonal. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -26.26B [-0.31%]. The big global-economic news was the BOE raising rates 50 bp (to 5%) on Thursday, when the expected move was +25 bp. (Source – Pfizer/Reuters). “Joseph […]

Hawkish Pauses, Deflation, and The Old Man who Lost his Horse

Five reports and the balance sheet this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +0.34% m/m, prior +0.37% m/m. Mildly recessionary (1y horizon). Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.16% m/m, prior +0.51% m/m. Mildly recessionary (1y horizon). Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.12% m/m, prior +0.37% m/m. Inflation (1y horizon). Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.24% m/m, prior +0.01% m/m. Deflation (1m and […]

Fed Rate Increase Likely, Polycrisis, UFO disclosure

While there was a ton of “polycrisis” news this week, there were just two reports: Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): +3.4B w/w. Mostly unchanged. ISM Services: actual 50.3, expected 52.2. Flat. Rates appear to be lining up for a 25 bp rate increase ahead of the Fed meeting coming up on Wednesday, June 14th. The odds […]

More Disability & A Fix For Mass Formation?

Four reports this week – payrolls, ISM, the Fed balance sheet, and total bank credit Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS): +339k, expected +190k, prior +294k. Expansion. Unemployment (UNRATE) 3.7%, prior 3.4%, expected 3.5%. Low, Sideways Trend. Employed Part-Time – Could Only Find Part-Time Work (LNS12032196): +7k, but in a downtrend. Expansion. CLF 16-64, With a Disability, Men+Women […]

PM Correction, Rate Increase Ahead, No Reform w/o Crash & Burn

Consumer Sentiment: 59.2, expected 58.0, previous 57.7; contractionary. Q1 GDP (2nd estimate): +0.3% q/q (+1.3% annualized), up from +0.275% (1st estimate); contractionary. Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +1.1% m/m, expected -1.1% m/m, prior +3.2%; expansionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) -20B w/w; deflationary. This week both the 1 and 10-year rates moved higher, while the 1-month […]

Term Spread Predicts Recession; Confidence in Childhood Vaccines Plunges

There were 3 reports and a balance sheet this week: Industrial Production (INDPRO): +0.48% m/m, +0.24% y/y. Short term: recovery. Retail Sales (RSAFS): +0.42% m/m, +1.57% y/y. Short term: recovery. Housing Starts (HOUST): +2.14% m/m, -29% y/y. Single Family house construction has been crushed (HOUST1F), down 39% y/y, while Multifamily 5+ (HOUST5F) fell just 13%. […]

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