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Services Inflation; The Speed of Science

Original Content
51
By davefairtex
October 16, 2022

Services Inflation; The Speed of Science

Original Content
By davefairtex on
October 16, 2022
51

This week, it was hard to sort out the events that caused the various market moves. Here were the U.S. data releases this week:

  • Retail Sales: headline unchanged, expected +0.2% [Fri]
  • Consumer Price Index: headline +0.38% m/m, expected +0.2% [Thu]
  • Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.29% m/m, “final demand” PPI +0.4% m/m, expected +0.2% [Wed]

From the CPI perspective, inflation isn’t stopping, and this is with crude oil down pretty briskly since the high.  This isn’t about energy right now. Wolf Richter has the chart breakdown on both Retail Sales (Source – Wolf) as well as the CPI (Wolf Again); services appear to be the key contributing factor. Here are where the top m/m CPI/services increases currently are: delivery services (+2.9%),  health insurance (+2.1%), motor vehicle repair (+1.9%), vehicle insurance (+1.6%), vet/pet services (+1.6%), medical care (+1.0%).  If it continues at this pace, delivery services will be up +34.8% y/y. That’s just insane. Other areas (leisure/hospitality) have also seen substantial increases in costs. Do we imagine that a Fed rate increase will contain services inflation? I’m not so sure.

Why the increase in services labor costs? At first, I thought this might just be disability. Then I compared labor force and wages for leisure/hospitality workers, vs. labor force & wages for information workers. Turns out, workers fled leisure/hospitality in 2020, and some have yet to return, even though the wage increase on offer was very strong. Contrast with information workers, where the labor force has returned and a whole lot more, but the growth in wages is much lower as a percentage. Manufacturing and construction are somewhere in the middle, while workers have returned in force to transportation (not shown). Not every sector is the same.

My guess: our current labor shortage in services is a combination of fear of working in person, along with disability; note that many “disabled” people can still work in “information”, but they cannot work in manufacturing, or leisure services. This makes disentangling these factors a fairly difficult task. I do think that both factors contribute meaningfully to our labor shortage. This matters, because I don’t think a Fed rate increase will affect either one. Perhaps, if we imported a whole bunch of new, unvaxxed, young, fearless workers from other places who demonstrated their hardiness by walking a fair distance to get here, might this “fix” the problem? Just thinking out loud.

Note the rise in services inflation this week made any sort of near term “pivot” unlikely.

The buck U.S. dollar chopped higher this week, up 0.46% to 113.20, with the big gain coming on Friday. This week, marked a new closing high for the buck; it remains in an uptrend, although not a very strong one. Most of the currencies fell against the buck this week: EUR -0.58%, CAD -1.33%, JPY -2.42%, and AUD -2.93%, while GBP +0.55%. JPY is down almost 50% vs. the buck over the past two years; great for exports, not-so-great for inflation. Projections are for a 75 bp rate increase at the upcoming meeting on November 2. No hint of a pivot appears to be dollar-positive.

Gold was pounded hard this week, falling 60.40 [-3.53%] to 1648.80. While that’s not a new low, it is not very far away from one.  So much for my hope that gold would close above its 50 MA. My poor model is confused by all this back-and-forth. Almost half the losses came on Friday; the banksters did not ring the register as prices fell (i.e. the Open Interest did not fall along with price, as it usually does) and I suspect that’s a bearish sign. Someone appears eager to move prices lower.

Silver had a horrible week; it fell 2.18 [-10.78%] to 18.07, dropping 5 days straight. As with gold, the biggest loss happened on Friday.  Silver didn’t make a new low, but it did mark a new weekly closing low, which is definitely a bearish sign. Support is (roughly) at 17.50. As with gold, the banksters increased their short positions on the decline – in silver, the mover higher in OI was dramatic. This means our friendly banksters increased their short positions as price fell. This is not normal. Meanwhile, 100-oz bars (!) are now selling at a 14% premium. For now, the banksters still own the place via the COMEX, and they sure seem eager to push prices lower right now.  Let’s see what happens at end of month when it is time to deliver physical metal.

The 30-year mortgage rate shot up 26 bp this week to 6.92%, hitting a rate not seen since 2002. Rates have moved up in a big hurry since the start of this year. Whenever things move this rapidly, I always assume there are some leveraged funds that borrowed money to bet big, and have now been wiped out. We just don’t know who they are just yet.

Pillaging of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased this week: it is up to 7.7 million barrels, which comes to a $658 million campaign contribution to the WEF/Biden-Handler cling-to-power campaign. That contribution is just for this week alone. At this pace, the SPR will be empty in 53 weeks. There was a time when maintaining the SPR was bipartisan –  politicans from both sides of the aisle worked to protect the people. But that bipartisan spirit was then – and this is now – and the WEF/Biden-Handlers are charting a brand-new course. They are selling off our valuable SPR in a naked (and very expensive) attempt to cling to power. But hey, it’s not their money, so who really cares?

The SPR-pillaging appears to be working for the moment. Crude fell 7.03 [-7.59%] to 85.61 this week. The black marubozu candle print was very bearish, and the move took crude back below its 50 MA line. None of that looks great if you’re long crude oil, but still – no new low. Gasoline also plunged, losing 0.28 [-10.26%] to 2.45.

So, I found some receipts about the Biden-Handler strategy of “using the SPR to lower gas prices before the election”:

Remember how the Biden-Handlers were telling us – not long ago – how high oil prices would help fight Climate Change by encouraging the rich to transition to the expensive EVs?

Biden Says The Quiet Part About The Energy Transition Out Loud (Source forbes).

That lasted (roughly) up until oil hit $120/bbl. And now Saudi Arabia tells us that, just last month, the Biden-Handlers were begging OPEC+ to hold off their production cut, but just for the month of October.

Biden administration asked Saudi Arabia to postpone OPEC decision by a month, Saudis say (Source – CNBC).

After the election, the Saudis were apparently free to do whatever they wanted. The Saudis said, thanks-but-no-thanks. Not only that, the Saudis ratted out the Biden-Handlers to the international press.  Boy were the Biden-Handlers angry.

Some Democrats push to punish Saudi Arabia after OPEC+ move to cut oil production (Source – NPR).

Someone doesn’t like being told “no”. Or maybe it was the tattling. What insane policy will the Biden-Handlers come up with in response that will end up backfiring horribly on the people of the United States, while destabilizing the rest of the world? Maybe: backing Iran in a new Gulf War 3? Regime Change in Saudi Arabia? Really, anything could happen. The core problems: the Biden-Handlers are not working for You and Me, they’re working for the WEF, and they really aren’t very bright. Only Tool: a big hammer. Every problem: a nail. Smash. Smash. Smash. Welcome to Technocracy.

 


Foreign:

China ‘began stockpiling PPE months before Covid outbreak’ (Source – telegraph); PPE stockpiling appeared to start about two months before that Event 201 exercise. Literally everyone knew. Except us.

Event 201 (source – centerforhealthsecurity); “The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY.”

Former French Presidential Candidate Shocks the World: ‘Macron and Most MPs Are Not Vaccinated’ (Source – NTD via rairfoundation); masks, lockdowns, and vaccines: required for thee, but not for me. I wonder what the force-vaccinated French think of their Young Global Leader?

Rare protest against China’s Xi Jinping days before Communist Party congress (Source – CNN); “Say no to Covid test, yes to food. No to lockdown, yes to freedom. No to lies, yes to dignity. No to cultural revolution, yes to reform. No to great leader, yes to vote. Don’t be a slave, be a citizen,” reads one banner. “Go on strike, remove dictator and national traitor Xi Jinping,” reads the other.

Protests in China are Mild and Rare, eh CNN?

Note: the 20th Party Congress is coming up, starting this Sunday, October 16. Once Chairman Xi is in place for an unprecedented third term, he will have purged his enemies, rewarded his supporters, and will be in a more secure place to conduct…enthusiastic actions around the world.

To return to growth [in China], if it is to be sustainable, it will not be enough to reverse recent policies that may have suppressed business exuberance. Instead it will require a radical (and unlikely) transformation of the country’s business, financial and political institutions.” (Source – twitter/Pettis); China has poured a record amount of capital into “investment.” That strategy has a sell-by date on it that has long since expired. Once every city has a train station, an airport, and a subway, what then? Reading between the lines – eliminating Zero COVID isn’t going to cut it. What will Chairman Xi do?

Truss premiership ‘hanging by thread’ after Kwarteng sacking and latest U-turn (Source – guardian); Truss caused the Gilt-crash. Now, she is being held responsible. Does it matter?  It feels as though the Uniparty is just as strong in the UK as it is here in the U.S.


Domestic:

A Democratic challenger who raised $10.8m is facing an uphill battle against the Maga congresswoman (Source – Guardian); the Oligarchy coughed up $10m to try and defeat Marjorie Tayler-Greene in her Congressional race. MTG is definitely a threat.

The FBI offered Christopher Steele $1 million to corroborate his dossier (Source – justthenews); Retired FBI supervisory special agent Bassem Youssef, said “…Never in my entire career have I heard of such an offer to pay a source to corroborate their own information…The FBI queries other sources in order to validate the original source of information. It is unheard of that the FBI would offer to pay Steele $1 million to corroborate his own information.” Every national agency is a target for capture.  Defund National Police.

MSNBC reporter Dasha Burns made a bold statement on Tuesday telling viewers Democrat senatorial candidate John Fetterman is “having a hard time understanding our conversations” following her interview with the Pennsylvania Democrat earlier this week. (Source – gatewaypundit);  This is an MSM reporter actually doing her job.  Another Oligarchy failure signal.

Creepy Joe strikes again! Biden sneaks up behind girl, grabs her shoulders and tells her ‘no serious guys until you’re 30’ – as the uncomfortable teen tries to laugh it off (Source – dailymail); picture > 1000 words.  Now just imagine the reaction in MSM if the Bad Orange Man had done something similar.

Newt Gingrich: Tulsi Gabbard’s Departure Is Bad News for Democrats (Source – ET); “The reason why she is leaving the Democratic Party, according to Gabbard, is because it represents the “powerful elite,” not normal people.”  Tulsi’s departure ahead of the midterms is another Oligarchy failure signal.


“Health”:

Congressman Reveals Cause of Death of Teenage Daughter (Source – ET); the 17-year-old “passed away from sudden heart problems.” Even the Uniparty factotums will figure it out, eventually. Then what?

Can’t Make This Up – Moderna CEO Announces Development of New mRNA “Injection” to Repair Heart Muscle After a Heart Attack (Source – gatewaypundit).

Moderna Product Pipeline (Source – moderna); vaccines – flu, RSV, C19+flu, C19+flu+RSV, toddler RSV, hMPV+PIV3, RSV + hMPV, CMV, EBV, HSV, VZV, HIV, Zika, Nipah, 3x cancer, another dozen therapeutics. Call this a “Moderna BOLO.”

U.S. extends Covid public health emergency even though Biden says pandemic is over
(Source – CNBC); a pandemic eyebrow-raise from the MSM. Crack in the dam.

Private business jets DEMANDING unvaccinated pilots (Source – gettr).

New Report Details Efforts to Infiltrate, Disrupt Health Freedom Movement (Source – CHD); “The Citizens’ Commission to Safeguard Freedom released a report which lays out detailed evidence of disruptive infiltrators who introduce top-down organizational structures that limit discourse and push well-intentioned health freedom groups towards right-wing extremism.” A BOLO for WEF fifth-column trolls. BOLO is my word-of-the-week.  🙂

FOI (Tom Fitton) expose extensive Biden Administration propaganda campaign to push Covid-19 vaccine in pop culture, social media (Source – paul alexander); “Judicial Watch has obtained 249 pages of records from the Department of Health and Human Services detailing the extensive $250 million dollar taxpayer funded government project to promote and push the Covid-19 vaccine through the use of celebrities, the late night “comedy” shows, sports stars, musicians and various social media outlets.”

TRENDS IN SERUM TESTOSTERONE LEVELS AMONG ADOLESCENT AND YOUNG ADULT MEN IN THE UNITED STATES (Source – Study); Mean total testosterone decreased from 1999-2000 (605.39 ng/dL) to 2015-2016 (451.22 ng/dL).  Data from CDC NHANES.  “AYA” age range: 15-39 years old. I wonder what happened in 2021?

Association of Circulating Sex Hormones With Inflammation and Disease Severity in Patients With COVID-19 (Source – Study); “lower testosterone concentrations during hospitalization were associated with increased disease severity and inflammation in men.” T for severe COVID: 18-114, vs non-severe COVID 95-217. Note that T also drops sharply when you get sick, or have surgery, and it drops 1% per year above age 30. Declining with age: NAD+, glutathione, vitamin D, bifidobacteria, and now T.

Low-fat diets and testosterone in men: Systematic review and meta-analysis of intervention studies (Source – Study); “There were significant decreases in sex hormones on low-fat vs high-fat diets.” Especially in men of European descent.

NAOMI WOLF: Are Lipid Nanoparticles Subtly Changing Human Beings? (Source – HumanEvents); “We know that LNPs are gumming up, in both men and women, the factories of hormones; Dr. Chandler has shown that they disrupt the ovaries, and Amy Kelly has shown that they disrupt the Leydig and Sertoli cells, the factories of masculinity, the generators of testosterone in the testes.”

TUCKER CARLSON ORIGINALS THE END OF MEN OCTOBER 5, 2022 (Source – rumble); the colorful hour+ video describes at least some of the myriad ways to address the T issue. I can attest that at least one method does appear to work, involving near-infrared light. The problem can be fixed. You just have to know the problem exists – similar to Vitamin D.

“We had to really move at the Speed of Science”  (Source – twitter/Roos alt rumble/Roos); “In COVID hearing, #Pfizer director admits: #vaccine was never tested on preventing transmission. ‘Get vaccinated for others’ was always a lie. The only purpose of the #COVID passport: forcing people to get vaccinated. The world needs to know. Share this video!”

Fact Check-Preventing transmission never required for COVID vaccines’ initial approval; Pfizer vax did reduce transmission of early variants (Source – Reuters); as always, a fact-check is an “ouchie” signal from the Oligarchy, and a Reuters fact-check is a “double-ouchie.” This makes the above-video a must-see. The real story: an EU Parliament member was brave enough to stand up for normal people, and tough enough extract the truth from a Pfizer director. Remember his name: Rob Roos, from the Netherlands. Vax Mandates were shown, in this two minute video, to be a deadly con, but the fact that an EU politician was this brave is a big Oligarchy failure signal. We need more of that here in the U.S. Can we borrow Mr. Roos?


Vaccidents

I wasn’t quite sure where to put this. Over the past year or so, I’ve heard people use the term “vaccidents.” Is it really a thing? So, I looked up fatal accidents over the last half-year (Source – DOT).  Looks like 17,000 fatalities in the first six months in 2019 and 2020, vs. 20,000 fatalities in both 2021 and 2022. That’s an increase of 18% for those keeping score at home – largest increase ever in history. And, it started in 2021, with a really absurd rise (+21.8%) in 2Q 2021, the quarter after the shot-campaign started in the U.S. No decline back to normal for 2022 either. So, I think vaccidents are a thing. Note too, the increase in fatal accidents are likely a good proxy for a probable increase in total auto accidents nationwide. Takeaway: be careful out there on the road.

 

So, what’s on the table right now?

“We had to really move at the speed of science.” What does that mean? It is a Kamala-grade word salad  (Source – dailywire); “It is time for us to do what we have been doing and that time is every day. Every day it is time for us to agree.” The tactic: say something confusing and meaningless, and use a lot of words to do it. We are in a Hybrid War, and sometimes in war, confusion is the goal. Pfizer must have focus-tested different responses, and sprinkling the word “science” on top of the word-salad made it sound like a factual response, while momentarily confusing the target. “I don’t understand what she said, but she used the word ‘science’, so it must be legit.” Clearly, they knew. They didn’t care. They didn’t want to say that, so they gave us a double-helping of science-word-salad hoping we would be confused long enough for them to flee. Word salad causes the unsuspecting target to focus on keywords in a vain attempt to extract meaning. “Science”, in this case. Just my guess. Didn’t work on Mr Roos though.

I think it is probable that gas and oil prices will scream higher post November 8. The Biden-Handlers are predictable: they aren’t very bright, they are desperate to hang onto power, their policies are absurdly unpopular, they really want oil prices to move higher (just – not right this minute!), and we have a date certain after which they will want to see those oil prices resume their ascent.  That’s November 8. Money may start moving in advance of that date too. Just a guess – not financial advice – etc.

The combination of disability alongside a probable strong reluctance of some (the 20%?) to return to in-person work, my sense is that the services inflation probably won’t go away, unless and until the disability and fear ends up fading. If/when that happens is anyone’s guess. Fed rate increases probably won’t address this issue. At least until the recession gets bad.

And then we have the engineered depression via energy deprivation. It is hitting Europe right now, with the damage seen in fits and starts. Destroying a nation’s industry won’t be a very popular strategy, and the WEF is targeting the heart of Europe – namely, Germany. The WEFers must blame others (Russia, the U.S., the German government), but the people will probably figure out where it all came from – just like the people of the Netherlands saw the truth after the cow farts, fertilizer, and bugs. Just this week, we saw Mr. Roos of the Netherlands questioning that Pfizer exec – a WEF-cow-fart blowback, of sorts. I predict Germany will at some point elect a Meloni. Or a Roos. That is the next major waypoint. Same thing will probably happen in France as well. The French can get a bit cranky when told to “mangent de la brioche.” You guys eat crickets and lock down, while we have filet mignon and fly private. History really does rhyme, and the demand for fair treatment is universal among the species. It is literally built into our DNA.

And, of course, there are the knock-on effects from the interest rates that are all exploding higher. The leveraged players will continue blowing up. As to who, and when, I am not sure. Will banks go down as a side effect? Probably, yes. Again probably starting in Europe (Credit Suisse, Deutchebank, etc), but I wouldn’t be surprised if U.S. firms have placed leveraged bets on the EU banks that will end up blowing a few of them as well. Looks like “selective (but temporary) money printing” will be the strategy that our friendly central banks select. At least right now.

And there’s Chairman Xi’s new power boost after his upcoming Chairman For Life coronation that happens this Sunday. What will he do with his new power-up? End Zero COVID? Attempt Reunification as part of a Greater East-Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere gambit?  (Source – Wiki). Oops that last was Japan, not China. My mistake. I meant Belt-and-Road. No doubt Chairman Xi will do something. Probably soon. He’s got some big, unsolvable problems at home. Perhaps he needs a distraction?

For us in the U.S., if the goal of our enemy was to weaken our people, (say by) slowly eliminating testosterone in the men of fighting age using a low-fat diet, no light exposure, processed foods, smoking cessation (!), obesity, toxic chemicals, and finally a mandated “vaccine” whose toxic particles bio-accumulate in the testes (among other places), this could be a great set of ways to move towards the goal. Low-T by design may be just one of the many campaigns being waged against our men.

Even for the keyboard warriors, there are some reasonably easy ways to fix the issue. But you first must know that it is a problem, and that there is a solution, before you can take action. My sense: the closer we are to the natural world, the less of a problem we will have. That’s not the path the WEF has planned for us, but we don’t need to select their option. We can just say no.

We remain in a Hybrid War. Fortunately one attacker isn’t all that bright, and while they are absurdly rich, there aren’t very many of them, and they have been relying on infiltration, censorship, and misdirection to stay out of the spotlight. Even so, the secret is coming out, week by week. The other group appears to be much smarter, with a longer planning horizon, but they have existential problems of their own. Once-in-a-generation property bubble pops don’t just vanish of their own accord, and there is also a massive oil production deficit, a crop shortage, a water shortage, and a one-child demographic cliff.  And other things too.

For us – as with the problem of low-T – once we realize we are at war, the various solutions emerge as time passes, and as more people clue in to the situation.  The primary issues: #1 getting more people to notice that we have a problem, and then #2 unifying to solve it.

– Peak Prosperity –

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