Dead Cat Bounce; A New Reserve Currency PREVIEW The markets were mixed for most of the week. However on Friday, there was a bit of a surprise rally in equities. Financial Entertainment News thought the pop on Friday was due to this: The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said consumers expect inflation to rise at a 5.3% annualized rate as of the… Dead Cat Bounce; A New Reserve Currency PREVIEW The markets were mixed for most of the week. However on Friday, there was a bit of a surprise rally in equities. Financial Entertainment News thought the pop on Friday was due to this: The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said consumers expect inflation to rise at a 5.3% annualized rate as of the…
Fed Raises Rates 75 Basis Points; Europeans Back Immediate Peace PREVIEW The big news of the week: on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a rate increase of +0.75% (75 bp) to 1.75%. This was hinted at on Monday, and as per the Fed press conference at 14:30 Eastern on Wednesday, the rate increase was blamed on last week’s surprisingly hot CPI print (0.97%… Fed Raises Rates 75 Basis Points; Europeans Back Immediate Peace PREVIEW The big news of the week: on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a rate increase of +0.75% (75 bp) to 1.75%. This was hinted at on Monday, and as per the Fed press conference at 14:30 Eastern on Wednesday, the rate increase was blamed on last week’s surprisingly hot CPI print (0.97%…
Hot CPI print; Unconditional Surrender PREVIEW The big news: on Friday at 8:30 am EST, CPI came in hot: +1.0% m/m, or an incredible +12% if you annualize the number versus last month’s +0.3% m/m. This really moved the markets, some charged higher, others plunged. For the most part, it was a risk-off move. The buck had a huge rally –… Hot CPI print; Unconditional Surrender PREVIEW The big news: on Friday at 8:30 am EST, CPI came in hot: +1.0% m/m, or an incredible +12% if you annualize the number versus last month’s +0.3% m/m. This really moved the markets, some charged higher, others plunged. For the most part, it was a risk-off move. The buck had a huge rally –…
Oil in Storage Drops Again; Rising Disability as a Signal PREVIEW Oil hit a new multi-decade (since 2008) weekly closing high this week, up +4.64 to 118.85. There was talk about OPEC+ pumping more oil to make up for Russia sanctions (now that Russia’s oil is now headed off to China and India), but I guess it wasn’t enough. Prices moved steadily higher. Interestingly, the open… Oil in Storage Drops Again; Rising Disability as a Signal PREVIEW Oil hit a new multi-decade (since 2008) weekly closing high this week, up +4.64 to 118.85. There was talk about OPEC+ pumping more oil to make up for Russia sanctions (now that Russia’s oil is now headed off to China and India), but I guess it wasn’t enough. Prices moved steadily higher. Interestingly, the open…
Technocrat Kissinger Suggests Peace; Ed Dowd’s Church Picnic PREVIEW So, the reasonably big market move this week: SPX reversed its 7-week decline, and printed a strong-looking bullish reversal candle, but it was not enough to pull the skeptical forecaster back into an uptrend. The SPX move (+6.58%) came mostly on Thursday and Friday, alongside a bullish sector map (discretionary, energy, financials, and tech led)…. Technocrat Kissinger Suggests Peace; Ed Dowd’s Church Picnic PREVIEW So, the reasonably big market move this week: SPX reversed its 7-week decline, and printed a strong-looking bullish reversal candle, but it was not enough to pull the skeptical forecaster back into an uptrend. The SPX move (+6.58%) came mostly on Thursday and Friday, alongside a bullish sector map (discretionary, energy, financials, and tech led)….
Weekly Market Update: Russia War Heats Up; America’s Doctor MIA PREVIEW Well, last week I said to watch prices. This week, we saw prices explode higher, in virtually all of the commodities I track: Gold: +84.30 [+4.27%] Silver: +1.57 [+6.06%] XAU: +12.11 [+7.81%] Palladium: +626.27 [+26.97%] Crude: +21.76 [+19.22%] Copper: +0.43 [+8.76%] Lumber: +100.84 [+7.76%] USD: +2.15% EUR: -2.99% 10-year; -27 bp [to 1.70%] Risk assets… Weekly Market Update: Russia War Heats Up; America’s Doctor MIA PREVIEW Well, last week I said to watch prices. This week, we saw prices explode higher, in virtually all of the commodities I track: Gold: +84.30 [+4.27%] Silver: +1.57 [+6.06%] XAU: +12.11 [+7.81%] Palladium: +626.27 [+26.97%] Crude: +21.76 [+19.22%] Copper: +0.43 [+8.76%] Lumber: +100.84 [+7.76%] USD: +2.15% EUR: -2.99% 10-year; -27 bp [to 1.70%] Risk assets…
Invasion Thursday; Watch Prices PREVIEW So, the invasion I thought wouldn’t happen – happened last Thursday. The press, and the Biden-Handlers were simply overjoyed with this outcome. Out with COVID, In with Invasion! Yay distraction! The timing was impeccable. If the Biden-Handlers had planned the invasion themselves, I don’t think it could have possibly been better-timed. [Totally unrelated – I… Invasion Thursday; Watch Prices PREVIEW So, the invasion I thought wouldn’t happen – happened last Thursday. The press, and the Biden-Handlers were simply overjoyed with this outcome. Out with COVID, In with Invasion! Yay distraction! The timing was impeccable. If the Biden-Handlers had planned the invasion themselves, I don’t think it could have possibly been better-timed. [Totally unrelated – I…
Producer Prices; Sovereign Defaults PREVIEW This week I’m going to lead off with the economic indicators – some of my favorites, including: Retail Sales; headline +4.36% m/m, more than erasing last month’s drop.This was a large move. The economy is now heating up again. Industrial Production; +1.41% m/m; INDPRO is now at a 3-year high.That’s positive for growth. Producer Prices;… Producer Prices; Sovereign Defaults PREVIEW This week I’m going to lead off with the economic indicators – some of my favorites, including: Retail Sales; headline +4.36% m/m, more than erasing last month’s drop.This was a large move. The economy is now heating up again. Industrial Production; +1.41% m/m; INDPRO is now at a 3-year high.That’s positive for growth. Producer Prices;…
Bad Consumer Sentiment; Pandemic, Phase II in Progress PREVIEW It was another new eight-year high for the master resource this week. Oil did sell off on Tuesday, but made it all up and then some with Friday’s big rally. On the week, crude rose +1.52 [+1.67%] to 92.33. Oil remains in a strong uptrend. Every dip has been bought for the past three months…. Bad Consumer Sentiment; Pandemic, Phase II in Progress PREVIEW It was another new eight-year high for the master resource this week. Oil did sell off on Tuesday, but made it all up and then some with Friday’s big rally. On the week, crude rose +1.52 [+1.67%] to 92.33. Oil remains in a strong uptrend. Every dip has been bought for the past three months….
Oil hits $90; Shoes Left To Drop PREVIEW The master resource just keeps slogging higher, rising +3.98 [+4.58%] to 90.81, breaking out to the new 8-year high on Friday. Is it geopolitics? Shortages? Lack of exploration over the past two years? The end of the pandemic? Yes, I think so. Fun fact: OPEC has raised its production quotas by 400,000 bpd, but the… Oil hits $90; Shoes Left To Drop PREVIEW The master resource just keeps slogging higher, rising +3.98 [+4.58%] to 90.81, breaking out to the new 8-year high on Friday. Is it geopolitics? Shortages? Lack of exploration over the past two years? The end of the pandemic? Yes, I think so. Fun fact: OPEC has raised its production quotas by 400,000 bpd, but the…