davefairtex

Cold Water from Jackson Hole; Drought Meet Hydropower!

Every summer, the Fed throws a big party at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Fed chairman typically gives a speech about the money matters of current interest, and anyone who is anyone in the markets-and-finance biz gets invited (Source). “The Kansas City Fed will host its 45th annual conference starting today at the Jackson Lake Lodge […]

No Pivot For You; Build Back Better Revealed

The market-moving news this week had to do with the prospects for another Fed rate increase. The information was delivered to the great unwashed via the “Fed Minutes Release” on Wednesday, where it sure sounded like more rate increases were already baked into the Fed’s cake: Fed sees interest rate hikes continuing until inflation eases […]

Whither Inflation, and The Monkeypox Gambit

The big market/economic news this week was the Consumer Price Index. If you were pro-Grandpa, you focused on the month over month figure of 0%, which Grandpa himself gloated about; if you were anti-Grandpa, you focused on year over year, which was 8.48%. Below, find the y/y chart: it shows the worst inflation since the […]

Payrolls, Gold Deliveries, Beginning of the Beginning

Payrolls were surprisingly strong on Friday; headline +528k, with about 250k expected. Of course, this bit of economic good news caused equities to sell off, along with gold, silver, and the 10-year bond. The initial sell-off was all about disappointment surrounding the much-hoped for “Fed Pivot” – theory being, the weaker the economy appears, the […]

Pivots, Recessions, and Covid-Zero

Two things happened in the markets this week: The Fed Pivot What’s a Recession Anyway? First, the Pivot. Which hasn’t happened, insofar as I can see, but the markets appear to believe that the Fed has “pivoted” – setting up to raise rates less enthusiastically than previously thought. Listening to the Federal Open Market Committee […]

Fed Meeting This Week

We have a Fed meeting Wednesday; this week, there was no material change in rate increase projection from the futures markets: a roughly 81% chance of a 75 basis point rate increase, with more rate increases projected to come after that. (Source) The European Central Bank actually did raise rates 50 bp this week, for […]

Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills

I’ll lead again with my new focus: rate increases. Where are we? Last week: July 27, 92%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2, 50%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase This week: July 27: 71%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2: 44%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase Source Not much change. The prospects for a rate increase are similar to last week, […]

Fed Rate Increase Still on Track; Fighting to The Last Ukrainian

My focus this week: what are market expectations are for Fed rate increases, and prospects for a recession? Futures markets predictions for Fed rate increases located here. Last week: • July 27, 71%: 2.25% – 2.50% +0.75% vs. now • Nov 2, 61%: 3.00% – 3.25% +1.5% vs. now This week: • July 27, 92%: […]

Credit Contraction; Recession Indicators Grow

First, I have some bad news. My data provider decided to stop shipping futures data to me (it was a free service which I’ve used for over five years) – the last updated value was Thursday at end of day. So, my charts for all futures contracts in this report end on Thursday. Now, I […]

Dead Cat Bounce; A New Reserve Currency

The markets were mixed for most of the week. However on Friday, there was a bit of a surprise rally in equities. Financial Entertainment News thought the pop on Friday was due to this: The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said consumers expect inflation to rise at a 5.3% annualized rate as of the […]

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