Consumer Economy
Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS); 159.5M +73K (+0.05% m/m)
Personal Income (PI); 25.79T +71.4B (+0.28% m/m)
Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES); 15.3M -281K (-1.83% m/m)
GDP (GDP); $30.33T +369.1B (+1.22% q/q)
ISM Manufacturing; 48.0 (contraction), last month 49.0.
U-Michigan Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT); 60.7 (prior 61.7)
Auto/Light truck sales moved slowly lower – auto sales made a new 3-year low, as did heavy truck sales, but the overall auto/light truck sales were not particularly bearish.
Personal Income moved higher, but it wasn’t a new high, due to last month’s decline. Annualized, this month’s increase was +3.36%. That’s not keeping up with actual inflation.
GDP, annualized, rose 4.88%. That’s a nice number, but it’s probably also not keeping up with actual inflation.
Consumer sentiment remains depressed; when the value drops below (say) 85-90, that’s a bad sign. We saw a YUGE plunge in sentiment during the 2022 Autopen-recession-that-wasn’t, as well as a plunge “ever since Trump got into office.” I suspect the plunge is an artifact of Mockingbird Media/Tariff Terror/Orange Hitler, but it still has an effect on the cows in the herd.
Headline Nonfarm Payrolls (establishment survey) were much lower than expected. In addition, the “Part Time/Economic: Only PTW Available” series rose by 103k. That means: there is less “full-time work” available this month, although it didn’t make a new high.
That said, the revisions to previous-month payrolls are ramping up. Last month’s numbers were revised lower by 133k, dropping down to just +14k, which is a pretty horrific result. It might even have resulted in a Fed rate cut.
Jobs Shocker: July Payrolls Far Below Estimates, Follow Massive Revisions Lower [Aug 1]
(source – zerohedge)
Trump isn’t happy about the now-constant (absurd) revisions; he has fired the head of BLS. His Truth Social post complained about the large revisions that have been going on since 2024 (pointed out by Ed Dowd as well), which appeared to be done in order to get the Cackler elected. And – my guess – this year’s “revisions” helped make sure that Powell didn’t cut rates. Trump pretends the economy is “booming”, but revised payrolls numbers might not support this.
by twalker5 
