Deportations + Disability = Full-Time Jobs, No-Recession (Yet), and Makes SPX New Highs

So when trying to make a “recession trade”, an additional factor might include doing the math on when “they” want such a thing to occur.  Panicking all the little people into SELL SELL SELL will add to the chaos and damage (we saw this during the Trump Tariff Terror), but if it happens “too soon”, then it won’t affect the “election”.  Primaries don’t start until March [2026], so presumably “disaster” should start 3-4 months earlier, slowly moving into a 24/7 Mockingbird Panic.  Perhaps October-November 2025 might be one guess – although that could be “too soon” also.  My guess: the Fed won’t cut (or engage in “money printing”) until the Trump-cession is ready to be officially launched.

Leading indicators: selling in Blessed Bitcoin, and then later selling in Spectacular Silver, JNK, and finally SPX.  And then Mockingbird propaganda confirms these moves, which will cause a move higher in the Google Trends “recession” indicator.

Consumer Economy

ISM Manufacturing Index; 49.0 +0.5; slight contraction.
Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER); 343B +48.3B (+14.07% m/m)
Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS); 159.7M +147K (+0.09% m/m)

The ISM manufacturing index (reporting June activity) hints at contraction.
Durable Goods Orders – which effectively forecasts July’s activity – hit a new all-time high, and not by a little.  It was a massive increase.

Payrolls

Native-born (LNU02073413); 132.6M +830k (+0.63% m/m)
Foreign-born (LNU02073395); 31.2M -348k (-1.10% m/m)

We saw an all-time high for native-born employment, and a decline for foreign-born.  The foreign-born decline dropped through the MA12, which hints at a downtrend. A guess: 50% of the migrant invaders have fake SSN cards and are working. This month, 348k of this group may have self-deported.

Overall, if we assume that Senile-Joe-Autopen (Mayorkas) shipped in 10-15 million Oligarchy-nannies-and-gardeners (via HIAS), and around 6 million of this group found work with fake SSNs, we’ve seen a decline of (maybe) 750k total of that 6 million. That’s about 12% of the total, with 5.8% leaving this month.

Who will be pulling the weeds for the Oligarchy?  No More Cheap Gardeners For You! It’s just so sad.

Possibly related: my recession indicator “Working Part Time, because only PTW is available” series actually FELL 224k.