davefairtex

More Disability & A Fix For Mass Formation?

Four reports this week – payrolls, ISM, the Fed balance sheet, and total bank credit Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS): +339k, expected +190k, prior +294k. Expansion. Unemployment (UNRATE) 3.7%, prior 3.4%, expected 3.5%. Low, Sideways Trend. Employed Part-Time – Could Only Find Part-Time Work (LNS12032196): +7k, but in a downtrend. Expansion. CLF 16-64, With a Disability, Men+Women […]

PM Correction, Rate Increase Ahead, No Reform w/o Crash & Burn

Consumer Sentiment: 59.2, expected 58.0, previous 57.7; contractionary. Q1 GDP (2nd estimate): +0.3% q/q (+1.3% annualized), up from +0.275% (1st estimate); contractionary. Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +1.1% m/m, expected -1.1% m/m, prior +3.2%; expansionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) -20B w/w; deflationary. This week both the 1 and 10-year rates moved higher, while the 1-month […]

Term Spread Predicts Recession; Confidence in Childhood Vaccines Plunges

There were 3 reports and a balance sheet this week: Industrial Production (INDPRO): +0.48% m/m, +0.24% y/y. Short term: recovery. Retail Sales (RSAFS): +0.42% m/m, +1.57% y/y. Short term: recovery. Housing Starts (HOUST): +2.14% m/m, -29% y/y. Single Family house construction has been crushed (HOUST1F), down 39% y/y, while Multifamily 5+ (HOUST5F) fell just 13%. […]

More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches

Two economic reports, and a Balance Sheet: Producer Price Index (PPIACO): +0.08% m/m, -3.08% y/y. Deflationary. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.37% m/m, +4.72% y/y. Inflationary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -0.01% w/w, -5.16% y/y. Neutral. I believe that the drop in PPI y/y is explained by oil’s $45 plunge over the past 12 months. Check out […]

Fed Raises +25 bp, Happy Payrolls, and Be Like Djokovic

Two reports and a balance sheet: Payrolls: headline +253k, expected +178k; avg hourly earnings +0.5%, expected +0.3%. Expansionary. PMI Manufacturing: 50.2, expected 50.4; weak – contractionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -58.7B w/w, previous -30.5B. Deflationary. The Fed raised rates at this week’s meeting by 25 bp to 5.08%. Is Powell going to raise rates again? CME […]

Recession probably here; Fed meeting next week

There were a bunch of reports this week: Q1 2023 GDP: 0.26% q/q, expected 2.0%, +1.25% y/y. Recessionary. Allegedly adjusted for inflation. Durable Goods: New orders: +3.2% m/m, expected 0.9%, previous -1.2%. Expansionary. Dallas Fed Mfg: Actual: -23.4, expected -11.5, prior -15.7. Recessionary. New Home Sales: Actual: 683k, expected 634k, prior 640k. Consumer Sentiment: Actual: […]

Big drop in 1-month treasury yields; Telegraphing the crash

Three reports: Existing Home Sales (EXHOSLUSM495S): -2.42% m/m, but +10% y/y. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: expected -19.4, actual -31.3. Recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -21B w/w [-0.25% w/w]. Rates this week were mostly unchanged – except for that red-circled 1-month treasury yield which plunged an incredible 95 basis points in just one week! Money continues […]

SPR drained again; crisis = opportunity

This week, there were five Economic Reports, plus the Fed balance sheet: Industrial Production (INDPRO): +0.38% m/m [0.3% expected], manufacturing -0.53% m/m [-0.1% expected]. Mixed. Retail Sales (RSAFS): -0.99% m/m [-0.4% expected]; recessionary. Producer Prices (PPIACO); -0.65% m/m, deflationary. Mostly due to energy. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.1% m/m [+0.3% expected]; non-inflationary. Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT): […]

Overnight trading as an indicator; Eat your vaccines

Reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: headline +236k [+0.15%] m/m; avg hourly earnings +0.3% m/m. Expansionary. Also true for my payrolls “recession detector” sub-index: “working part time/slack work” (LNS12032195): +33k, which is still at expansionary levels. ISM Manufacturing: 46.3 (expected 47.5); contractionary. ISM Services: 51.2 (expected 54.4); weakly expansionary. Factory Orders: -0.7% m/m (expected -0.4%); contractionary. […]

banksters seem short-silver hesitant; vaccine is the mechanism

Five economic reports this week: Industrial Production: -0.02% m/m [prior +0.4% m/m]; topping out, recessionary Personal Income: +0.32% m/m [prior +0.55% m/m]; steady uptrend, increasingly inflationary Auto/Light Truck Sales: -6.57% m/m [prior +18.7% m/m]; medium-term expansionary GDP: +1.61% q/q [prior +1.88% q/q]; adjusted for (CPI) inflation: slowing-to-recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -0.32% m/m (-87 billion) [prior […]

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