davefairtex

Fed Pauses, 10-Year Breaks Out, & The Vax Damage Trade

As the “markets guy”, my job is to ask: “So what’s the trade?” Consider banks. Given how shaky the banks are right now given the 500 bp move in yields that has caused all those “unrealized losses,” then add to that these banks most likely force-vaxxed their employees. How do we think that might play out? But this won’t just hit the banks. It will hit a wide range of corporates and ultimately confidence in government.

ECB Raises to 4%, Crude hits $90, Mafia Tactics Everywhere

Oil busts a big move, but so do the narrative police. Their Mafia Tactics are seen everywhere, but the game only works because the Mafia pretends to be a democracy. Once revealed, just about everyone will reject it, because most people aren’t sociopaths. That is when it all falls apart. That’s the Framing of the Week.

Dollar Breakout, and TINA Brings Peace

CPI inflation is on the way back, with oil apparently heading up towards triple-digits once again. US field production is almost back to pre-pandemic levels, but commercial oil stocks have been dropping hard for the past month or so, and not by a little bit either. Something is going on, I’m not sure what it is. There are also hints of another government shutdown.

Payrolls, China, and I’m Just a Bill

There was a book I read, long ago, entitled “A Distant Mirror, The Calamitous 14th Century” (wiki:archive) by Barbara Tuchman. As I think back to this book and the vibe it gave me, this feels (emotionally) exactly like the period we are living through today – most especially the part about the stupidity of the ruling class.

No BRICS gold-backing, 5G Warfare, Recruit The Pigs

There were just two reports this week among those I track, in addition to the banking stats: Durable Goods (DGORDER): -15B (-5.15% m/m); decline after a new all-time high. Median New Home Sale Price (MSPNHSUS): 437k +20k (+4.58% m/m); rebound after 12-month $80k decline. Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): +7B (+0.04% w/w); flat, deflationary. Fed Balance Sheet […]

Big Money Moving, Bioweapon-Vax Explained, and Pandemic 2.0?

Advice: watch and wait. Watch MSM (try to measure the shriek volume), and measure the Big Money moves too. Big Money always moves in advance of events. They always know. They are probably the most reliable indicator – but the Biden-Handlers will probably be floating trial balloons along the way too. Assuming this is the plan.

Bank Credit Goes Negative, Scaring the Monkeys

There are 8 billion monkeys, and the bosses are desperate to keep the monkeys dancing. So they feel they have to keep killing more chickens to keep the monkeys in line. The parable works with 1 boss and 1 monkey, but that’s not reality. As this continues, the monkeys are slowly starting to figure out the game. At some point, the monkeys will look around and realize just how many monkeys and just how few bosses there actually are.

Payrolls, Disability, Oil Deficits, and a Fraying Narrative

Imagine what it must be like for those on Team Oligarchy…I honestly don’t think they have enough narrative suppression squads to keep a lid on things any longer.

Fed Raises Rates, Crude to $80, and the Fed Danger Signal

When the Fed starts cutting rates, look out below!

Retail Sales Winner, SPR Refilled, and an Ebola Lab Leak??

There were just 2 reports this week, alongside the things I usually track: Retail Sales (RSAFS): +0.19% m/m, prior +0.51%m/m, +1.49% y/y. Recessionary. Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.54% m/m, prior -0.46% m/m, -0.45% y/y. Recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -22B (-0.27%) w/w, prior -0.02% w/w. Deflationary. Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): +7.7B (+0.05%) m/m, +0.1% y/y. Deflationary. […]

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