Consumer Economy
- Existing Home Sales (EXHOSLUSM495S) 3.98M -80.0K (-1.97% m/m)
- Producer Prices (PPIACO) 287.9 +2.75 (+0.96% m/m)
- CPI All Urban (CPIAUCSL) +0.40% m/m
Existing home sales fell to (about) a 2-year low. FRED no longer has the “months of supply” series or “median sales price” series. Seems that any series that shows “bad news” gets suspended. Even the existing home sales series got truncated. What does that say about housing? To me: slow-motion POP.
PPI jumped by 11.5% annualized. That’s a real inflation Fauci-Ouchie. This was released on Thursday at 08:30 Eastern. It caused a modest drop in SPX and a minor rally in gold-n-silver, but it could also have been partially involved in the big rise in rates. On Thursday, the 5-year jumped by 14 basis points; the increase started at 04:00 (right after the ECB announced its own rate increase), the 5-year yield took off at 07:50, and ended at 17:00. Thursday was a day full of activity.
It turns out that energy and PPI are related. Here’s the connection between heating oil and PPI.
CPI rose at 4.8% annualized. That’s another Fauci Ouchie. This series was released on Friday at 08:30. It caused a very brief spike lower in gold-n-silver, which then turned into a rally, which then mostly evaporated by the end of the day [Friday gold=+1.60, silver=+0.26].
Cherry-picked m/m change from the right-most column of the BLS table:
- Heating Oil: +10.1% m/m
- Gasoline: +3.9% m/m
- Vaxxident Repair: +1.1% m/m
- Airline Fares: +2.7% m/m
Credit & Rates
- Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR) 19.84T +4.6B (+0.02% w/w)
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) 6.74T +3.4B (+0.05% w/w)
- US 30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US) 6.76% +5 bp
- 3-Month Treasury (DGS3MO) 4.01% +10 bp
- 1-Year Treasury (DGS1) 4.32% +19 bp
- 5-Year Treasury (DGS5) 4.79% +25 bp
- 10-Year Treasury (DGS10) 4.97% +19 bp
- 30-Year Treasury (DGS30) 5.36% +12 bp
- 20+ Treasury ETF (TLT.N) -1.63% w/w
- US Confidence (AAA10Y) 1.08% -6 bp
Bank credit just inched higher (+20B required, +4.6B occurred), while the Fed printed 3.4 billion this week. The 4-week trend for both credit and printing continues to move lower. That’s semi-deflationary.
Treasury rates absolutely screamed higher, with the 5-year seeing the largest increase: +25 basis points. The biggest move happened on
by westcoastjan 
