Consumer Economy

• Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER) 339.4B +3.6B (+1.08% m/m)
• Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES) 16.8M +444.0K (+2.72% m/m)
• Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS) 159.1M +162.0K (+0.10% m/m)

Durable Goods orders climbed this month – it’s not a new high, but it is close. Not recessionary.

Auto sales also inched higher – also not recessionary.

Heavy truck sales fell for the second month in a row. That hints at a recession.

Nonfarm Payrolls were surprisingly good; The Donald somehow knew this would happen. He tweeted about his pre-knowledge, as well as: “Lower the rate or I’ll stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit.”  Ed supplies Trump’s tweet here:

This is a real post. Apparently threatening tariffs on other countries unless the Fed cuts rates? [Sep 4]

(source – DowdEdward)

The massive payrolls “surprise” caused a big fuss when it came out on Friday. More on that later. Did you get advance knowledge of this release if you paid $100k/month?

On the other hand, the ADP payrolls report looked less exciting. Here’s a comparison of the BLS data on private payrolls and the ADP data on private payrolls:

• All Employees: Total Private Industries (USPRIV) 135.75M +127K (+0.09% m/m)
• ADP Private Payrolls 132.80M +38K (+0.03% m/m)

And the chart: m/m change in USPRIV vs ADP Payrolls.  USPRIV moved higher, while ADP moved lower.   My sense is that the BLS number will probably be revised lower in the future.   I’m old enough to remember how Senile Joe got great payrolls numbers (which were later revised lower), and now The Donald may be receiving the same gift from the BLS.

Safe & Effective. ALT: a collapse of confidence in institutions.

With a Disability

• CNP (LNU00074597) 36.526M -503K -1.36%
• CLF (LNU01074597) 8.975M -100K -1.10%
• EMP (LNU02074597) 8.279M +8K +0.10%
• NILF (LNU05074597) 27.551M -403K -1.44%

Total population with a disability declined by half a million people this month. I looked back through history; since 2021, August has seen declines in With a Disability in 4 out of the past 6 years.  Why do people get un-disabled in August?  Maybe they go forest-bathing?

• 2021-08-01 -392K
• 2022-08-01 -303K
• 2023-08-01 165K
• 2024-08-01 287K
• 2025-08-01 -760K
• 2026-08-01 -503K

Native/Foreign

• Native (LNU02073413) 131.89M -428K (-0.32% m/m)
• Foreign (LNU02073395) 30.78M +294K (+0.96% m/m)

This past month,