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Geopolitics

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Geopolitical unity is fracturing as countries are forced to compete more
  • LIBOR is signaling a credit emergency in Europe
  • The market is sending signs a major war and/or a major recession may be imminent
  • The last remaining heroes for risk-on capital, the FANG stocks, are quickly becoming villains

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Future Ain't What It Used To Be, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The central banks of the world have failed: colossally, completely and dangerously.  Yes, they will try to rescue the “markets” once again, as they did in 2011 and 2016 when things similarly looked to be falling apart.

The reason they might not be able to succeed this time?

They are out of maneuvering room. 

Nothing will happen if interest rates are clubbed back down a percent or two.  To do that, though, would require the same sort of lock-step coordination as prior times.  The ECB, BoJ and Fed would all have to operate seamlessly again. 

The most immediate of my concerns, even more than the tech-wreck that began a few weeks ago, is the rise in the LIBOR interest rate.  Why?  Because trouble always moves from the outside in.

Let’s do the math  With $350 trillion worth of assets tied to LIBOR, that means each 1% rise in the LIBOR rate translates into $3.5 trillion dollars of increased interest costs.

LIBOR is now at its highest rate since 2009, and it's spiking for reasons nobody can fully explain. In my mind, higher LIBOR means that there’s less trust and/or liquidity in the system.  It also means borrowing costs are heading up for…

Everything Is Suddenly Deteriorating, Fast
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Geopolitical unity is fracturing as countries are forced to compete more
  • LIBOR is signaling a credit emergency in Europe
  • The market is sending signs a major war and/or a major recession may be imminent
  • The last remaining heroes for risk-on capital, the FANG stocks, are quickly becoming villains

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Future Ain't What It Used To Be, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The central banks of the world have failed: colossally, completely and dangerously.  Yes, they will try to rescue the “markets” once again, as they did in 2011 and 2016 when things similarly looked to be falling apart.

The reason they might not be able to succeed this time?

They are out of maneuvering room. 

Nothing will happen if interest rates are clubbed back down a percent or two.  To do that, though, would require the same sort of lock-step coordination as prior times.  The ECB, BoJ and Fed would all have to operate seamlessly again. 

The most immediate of my concerns, even more than the tech-wreck that began a few weeks ago, is the rise in the LIBOR interest rate.  Why?  Because trouble always moves from the outside in.

Let’s do the math  With $350 trillion worth of assets tied to LIBOR, that means each 1% rise in the LIBOR rate translates into $3.5 trillion dollars of increased interest costs.

LIBOR is now at its highest rate since 2009, and it's spiking for reasons nobody can fully explain. In my mind, higher LIBOR means that there’s less trust and/or liquidity in the system.  It also means borrowing costs are heading up for…

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The Destructive Practices To Stop Doing
  • The Regenerative Behaviors To Do More Of
  • Getting The Foundational Pieces In Place
  • The Payoff, For Both You & Society

If you have not yet read Part 1: We Need a Social Revolution available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we compared non-hierarchical, bottoms-up secular social revolutions with hierarchical, top-down political and technological revolutions managed by the state and corporate sector.  Next, we surveyed the erosion of social connectedness and social capital, and asked who benefited from this fraying of the social order.  While certain players derive some benefit from political divisiveness and from the sale of technologies that undermine authentic connectedness, it seems that much of the social-order decay is collateral damage—destruction that wasn’t intentional.

How can we strengthen or repair our own connections and social fabric in such a disintegrative era?

There are two basic approaches: stop participating in destructive dynamics, and assemble the foundational pieces of a connected social life.

How do we as individuals and households foster and nurture the social bonds that are fast-eroding in civil society?

The basic strategies are not difficult to understand, though they are extremely difficult to put in place in modern-day America:

  • Strip out busyness to free up enough time and energy for social life and connectedness.
  • Live in a place with short commutes to friends, family and public social spaces.
  • Recognize (and then…..
Rescuing Our Future
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The Destructive Practices To Stop Doing
  • The Regenerative Behaviors To Do More Of
  • Getting The Foundational Pieces In Place
  • The Payoff, For Both You & Society

If you have not yet read Part 1: We Need a Social Revolution available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we compared non-hierarchical, bottoms-up secular social revolutions with hierarchical, top-down political and technological revolutions managed by the state and corporate sector.  Next, we surveyed the erosion of social connectedness and social capital, and asked who benefited from this fraying of the social order.  While certain players derive some benefit from political divisiveness and from the sale of technologies that undermine authentic connectedness, it seems that much of the social-order decay is collateral damage—destruction that wasn’t intentional.

How can we strengthen or repair our own connections and social fabric in such a disintegrative era?

There are two basic approaches: stop participating in destructive dynamics, and assemble the foundational pieces of a connected social life.

How do we as individuals and households foster and nurture the social bonds that are fast-eroding in civil society?

The basic strategies are not difficult to understand, though they are extremely difficult to put in place in modern-day America:

  • Strip out busyness to free up enough time and energy for social life and connectedness.
  • Live in a place with short commutes to friends, family and public social spaces.
  • Recognize (and then…..
by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Knowing, Doing & Being
  • Preparing for and embracing de-growth
  • Getting your perspective straight
  • Ways to participate

If you have not yet read Part 1: Signs Of Distress available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

How We Fix This

At Peak Prosperity our model for squaring up to reality and taking action has three components.

Knowing – refers to gathering the best and most complete data and letting it tell the tale. Often this is hard work, mainly because much if it is ‘not happy data’ and sometimes leads to grief, such as when I view the decline in butterfly populations.

Doing – once armed with the data that says “DO SOMETHING!” we figure you should probably do something. The Eight Forms Of Capital framework in Prosper! lays out a great starting point for anyone. Stepping through each form of capital not only makes you more resilient for any future that might arrive, but happier, more well connected, and healthier today. It’s a win-win and that’s why we like it. Of course Adam and I live what we preach, so there’s nothing in there that we are not following ourselves.

Being – nothing that we do will matter in the end of we humans do not find a new way to be on this planet with each other. We need to be able to tame our egos to the point that we can finally know when to say “enough!” because we know that more stuff isn’t where our happiness and contentment come from. Further we need to remember that are a part of not apart from nature. Reconnecting to the natural world is a huge and important part of being alive and content. Mastering being allows us to experience lives of amazing abundance, in part by being grateful for what we do have rather than consumed by what we do not have.

Once we are on the path of aligning ourselves and our actions with the reality of the world we become…

Joining The Quiet Revolution
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Knowing, Doing & Being
  • Preparing for and embracing de-growth
  • Getting your perspective straight
  • Ways to participate

If you have not yet read Part 1: Signs Of Distress available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

How We Fix This

At Peak Prosperity our model for squaring up to reality and taking action has three components.

Knowing – refers to gathering the best and most complete data and letting it tell the tale. Often this is hard work, mainly because much if it is ‘not happy data’ and sometimes leads to grief, such as when I view the decline in butterfly populations.

Doing – once armed with the data that says “DO SOMETHING!” we figure you should probably do something. The Eight Forms Of Capital framework in Prosper! lays out a great starting point for anyone. Stepping through each form of capital not only makes you more resilient for any future that might arrive, but happier, more well connected, and healthier today. It’s a win-win and that’s why we like it. Of course Adam and I live what we preach, so there’s nothing in there that we are not following ourselves.

Being – nothing that we do will matter in the end of we humans do not find a new way to be on this planet with each other. We need to be able to tame our egos to the point that we can finally know when to say “enough!” because we know that more stuff isn’t where our happiness and contentment come from. Further we need to remember that are a part of not apart from nature. Reconnecting to the natural world is a huge and important part of being alive and content. Mastering being allows us to experience lives of amazing abundance, in part by being grateful for what we do have rather than consumed by what we do not have.

Once we are on the path of aligning ourselves and our actions with the reality of the world we become…

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