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Dead Cat Bounce; A New Reserve Currency

The User's Profile davefairtex June 26, 2022
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The markets were mixed for most of the week. However on Friday, there was a bit of a surprise rally in equities. Financial Entertainment News thought the pop on Friday was due to this:

The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said consumers expect inflation to rise at a 5.3% annualized rate as of the end of June.

That’s a very modest improvement over the 5.4% expectation earlier this month. In that same report, the consumer sentiment number came in at 50, which is a new all time low, vs last month’s reading of 58. This series goes back to the 1950s, and it does tend to be a predictor of where things are going next, so this new all time low is very bearish.

But timingwise, the sentiment numbers (10 a.m. Friday) did line up with a fairly brisk rally in equities, crappy debt, copper, and silver that started right at 10 a.m. I’m not sure what to make of it. “Rally on worst sentiment numbers ever” – really? Or was it on the 0.1% decline in inflation expectations? Or manipulation by “someone”? No idea.

Equities did move higher this week, rallying +6.45%, with half of the move happening on Friday right after that release. The candle print looked strong, the sector map was bullish (discretionary, sickcare, and tech were leaders), but does this really mark a low? Or is it just a dead cat bounce?

Let’s consult Doctor Copper. This week, copper fell for most of the week, losing -0.29 [-7.20%]. 

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I think the Indians and the Chinese are getting awfully gleeful at the thought of more sanctions, this time on gold. “Yay, more discounted...
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