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Image | How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root
How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root
by charleshughsmith

Fisher found that a wage/price cycle often ends in transformational social upheaval. While proponents of his model have a wealth of historical examples to draw upon, they miss a key factor:  the vulnerability or resilience of the nation-state facing crises.

Some nations survive invasions, environmental catastrophes, epidemics and inflation without disintegrating into disorder. Something about these nation’s social/ economic /political order makes them more resilient than other nations. So rather than accept the proximate causes of disorder as the sole factors, we should look deeper into the social order for the factors behind a nation’s relative fragility or resilience.
How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root
 by charleshughsmith

Fisher found that a wage/price cycle often ends in transformational social upheaval. While proponents of his model have a wealth of historical examples to draw upon, they miss a key factor:  the vulnerability or resilience of the nation-state facing crises.

Some nations survive invasions, environmental catastrophes, epidemics and inflation without disintegrating into disorder. Something about these nation’s social/ economic /political order makes them more resilient than other nations. So rather than accept the proximate causes of disorder as the sole factors, we should look deeper into the social order for the factors behind a nation’s relative fragility or resilience.
Image | Triggers Of The Coming Social Disorder
Triggers Of The Coming Social Disorder
 PREVIEW
by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Why revolutions start in the middle-class
  • How social disorder and new narratives are critical ingredients to regime change
  • How the central State will react to being challenged
  • Why the inevitable outcome of class conflict is an increasingly unstable social/economic order

If you have not yet read How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we surveyed three conventional models the sources of social disorder/revolution and focused on the under-appreciated model of suppressed social mobility.

In this Part 2, we examine the other half of this dynamic: the systemic misalignment of aspirations and opportunities.

The Wellspring of Revolution: An Aspirational Middle Class

One of the great ironies of Marx's historical blueprint for revolution is that revolutionary leaders don't arise from the peasantry or proletariat as he anticipated but from a middle class with aspirations and expectations that are unfulfilled by the status quo–in other words, a society with low social mobility.

Marx was born into a wealthy middle-class family in Trier in the Prussian Rhineland (now Germany), and studied at the universities of Bonn and Berlin at a time when only the elite attended university.

Lenin was born into a wealthy middle-class family in Simbirsk, Russia. His interest in revolutionary socialist politics was sparked by his brother's execution in 1887. He was expelled from Kazan State University for participating in protests.

Mao Zedong was the son of a wealthy farmer in Shaoshan, Hunan. Influenced by the events of the Xinhai Revolution of 1911 and May Fourth Movement of 1919, Mao converted to Marxism–Leninism while working at Peking University.

The building blocks of revolution are visible in each case: a middle-class upbringing of aspirations and higher education, and a grave injustice or movement aimed at rectifying social/economic/political injustice that acts as a trigger for revolutionary fervor and commitment.

The dynamic of revolution is coiled around the psychology of…

Triggers Of The Coming Social Disorder
 PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Why revolutions start in the middle-class
  • How social disorder and new narratives are critical ingredients to regime change
  • How the central State will react to being challenged
  • Why the inevitable outcome of class conflict is an increasingly unstable social/economic order

If you have not yet read How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we surveyed three conventional models the sources of social disorder/revolution and focused on the under-appreciated model of suppressed social mobility.

In this Part 2, we examine the other half of this dynamic: the systemic misalignment of aspirations and opportunities.

The Wellspring of Revolution: An Aspirational Middle Class

One of the great ironies of Marx's historical blueprint for revolution is that revolutionary leaders don't arise from the peasantry or proletariat as he anticipated but from a middle class with aspirations and expectations that are unfulfilled by the status quo–in other words, a society with low social mobility.

Marx was born into a wealthy middle-class family in Trier in the Prussian Rhineland (now Germany), and studied at the universities of Bonn and Berlin at a time when only the elite attended university.

Lenin was born into a wealthy middle-class family in Simbirsk, Russia. His interest in revolutionary socialist politics was sparked by his brother's execution in 1887. He was expelled from Kazan State University for participating in protests.

Mao Zedong was the son of a wealthy farmer in Shaoshan, Hunan. Influenced by the events of the Xinhai Revolution of 1911 and May Fourth Movement of 1919, Mao converted to Marxism–Leninism while working at Peking University.

The building blocks of revolution are visible in each case: a middle-class upbringing of aspirations and higher education, and a grave injustice or movement aimed at rectifying social/economic/political injustice that acts as a trigger for revolutionary fervor and commitment.

The dynamic of revolution is coiled around the psychology of…

Image | 2015 Year In Review (Part 2)
2015 Year In Review (Part 2)
by David Collum
As regards the banks, we have come down from the trees but are not out of the woods yet.
 
The six biggest banks are ginormous—50% larger than they were at the previous high at the start of the crisis—but the sector was relatively quiet this year. Hundreds of billions in fines have been levied by various governmental Rainbow Coalitions.
 
As statutes of limitations began to run out, Eric Holder and authorities declared there would be no prosecutions of individuals responsible for the crisis.

 
2015 Year In Review (Part 2)
 by David Collum
As regards the banks, we have come down from the trees but are not out of the woods yet.
 
The six biggest banks are ginormous—50% larger than they were at the previous high at the start of the crisis—but the sector was relatively quiet this year. Hundreds of billions in fines have been levied by various governmental Rainbow Coalitions.
 
As statutes of limitations began to run out, Eric Holder and authorities declared there would be no prosecutions of individuals responsible for the crisis.

 
Image | Murder And Mayhem In The Middle East
Murder And Mayhem In The Middle East
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

To understand what’s happening in Syria right now, you have to understand the tactics and motivations of the US and NATO — the three parties sharing interwoven aims and goals in the Middle East/North African (MENA) region.

The main point here is that as resources become tight, the ruling powers can be expected to act in increasingly desperate ways.
Murder And Mayhem In The Middle East
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

To understand what’s happening in Syria right now, you have to understand the tactics and motivations of the US and NATO — the three parties sharing interwoven aims and goals in the Middle East/North African (MENA) region.

The main point here is that as resources become tight, the ruling powers can be expected to act in increasingly desperate ways.
Image | Russian Jet Shot Down By NATO Member
Russian Jet Shot Down By NATO Member
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

This morning two Turkish F-16 fighters shot down a Russian jet, claiming that it was in Turkey’s airspace after it had ignored repeated warnings.

There are two problems with this story. The first is that Russia claims to have evidence that the Russian jet never left Syrian airspace.  The second is that even if the Russian jet had strayed into Turkish airspace, Turkey knew there was zero threat to its security from a single Russian jet. Everybody and their uncle knows what Russian jets are doing in the area.

This means that NATO, of which Turkey is a member, had given a greenlight to the idea of shooting down Russian planes.
Russian Jet Shot Down By NATO Member
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

This morning two Turkish F-16 fighters shot down a Russian jet, claiming that it was in Turkey’s airspace after it had ignored repeated warnings.

There are two problems with this story. The first is that Russia claims to have evidence that the Russian jet never left Syrian airspace.  The second is that even if the Russian jet had strayed into Turkish airspace, Turkey knew there was zero threat to its security from a single Russian jet. Everybody and their uncle knows what Russian jets are doing in the area.

This means that NATO, of which Turkey is a member, had given a greenlight to the idea of shooting down Russian planes.
Image | Off The Cuff: Race For The Exit
Off The Cuff: Race For The Exit
 PREVIEW
by Adam Taggart

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Fab 5
    • Without these 5 stocks, the S&P would be negative for the year
  • The "Positive" Impact Of The Paris Attacks
    • Are they kidding???
  • The Insatiable Military Industrial Complex
    • Crisis is being fabricated to keep it fed
  • Housing Is Looking Sick
    • More and more weakness is showing

 

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.

Off The Cuff: Race For The Exit
 PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Fab 5
    • Without these 5 stocks, the S&P would be negative for the year
  • The "Positive" Impact Of The Paris Attacks
    • Are they kidding???
  • The Insatiable Military Industrial Complex
    • Crisis is being fabricated to keep it fed
  • Housing Is Looking Sick
    • More and more weakness is showing

 

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.

Image | Making The World A More Dangerous Place
Making The World A More Dangerous Place
by Chris Martenson

Without any doubt, the Middle East has been a very long-simmering region of violent religious and tribal enmity.

In that regard, perhaps today is no different than 1,000 years ago. But given the importance of the remaining oil in the Middle East to the next 20 years of global economic health, the violence and chaos seen there recently is hugely important to the entire world.
Making The World A More Dangerous Place
 by Chris Martenson

Without any doubt, the Middle East has been a very long-simmering region of violent religious and tribal enmity.

In that regard, perhaps today is no different than 1,000 years ago. But given the importance of the remaining oil in the Middle East to the next 20 years of global economic health, the violence and chaos seen there recently is hugely important to the entire world.
Image | How Things May Well Get Ugly Quickly
How Things May Well Get Ugly Quickly
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • The US/Russia proxy war in Syria is fast escalating to dangerous levels
  • Much of the unrest today was imminently avoidable and sadly ignored
  • The US neo-con model is making more enemies both outside and inside America
  • The risks of full-blown war breaking out
  • What to do to prepare in advance

If you have not yet read Part 1: Making The World A More Dangerous Place available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Look, we’ve given these warnings before and unless you happen to live in one of the unfortunate countries that is being bombed or overtly or covertly supplied with the weapons of war by the west, they seem to not have amounted to much.

Such is the nature of reading tea leaves.  Instead of thinking of them as binary outcomes – things that either happened or didn’t happen – think of them as ‘probability fields.’  Like the chance of rolling a three with a 6-sided die vs. the chance of rolling a three with a 20-sided die.  The ‘probability field’ of the 6-sided die is a lot higher.

The probabilities and forces that push us closer to and further from war are ever changing and highly complex.  They shift with events and decisions, most of which we are unaware of because they are either not reported on or reported with heavy distortion of the truth.

So reading the tea leaves is the best we can do.

Our advice for any war breaking out anywhere in the Middle East, or especially between Russia (or China) and the West would be to have all of your preparations done a year before that moment.

Anything that disrupts global maritime trade, even for a very short while will rock the financial systems of the world.  Anything that calls into question the desire or ability of a country to repay its foreign debts (and wars are great excuses to stiff your creditors if they happen to be attacking you) will rock the financial world.

Heck, anything that…

How Things May Well Get Ugly Quickly
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • The US/Russia proxy war in Syria is fast escalating to dangerous levels
  • Much of the unrest today was imminently avoidable and sadly ignored
  • The US neo-con model is making more enemies both outside and inside America
  • The risks of full-blown war breaking out
  • What to do to prepare in advance

If you have not yet read Part 1: Making The World A More Dangerous Place available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Look, we’ve given these warnings before and unless you happen to live in one of the unfortunate countries that is being bombed or overtly or covertly supplied with the weapons of war by the west, they seem to not have amounted to much.

Such is the nature of reading tea leaves.  Instead of thinking of them as binary outcomes – things that either happened or didn’t happen – think of them as ‘probability fields.’  Like the chance of rolling a three with a 6-sided die vs. the chance of rolling a three with a 20-sided die.  The ‘probability field’ of the 6-sided die is a lot higher.

The probabilities and forces that push us closer to and further from war are ever changing and highly complex.  They shift with events and decisions, most of which we are unaware of because they are either not reported on or reported with heavy distortion of the truth.

So reading the tea leaves is the best we can do.

Our advice for any war breaking out anywhere in the Middle East, or especially between Russia (or China) and the West would be to have all of your preparations done a year before that moment.

Anything that disrupts global maritime trade, even for a very short while will rock the financial systems of the world.  Anything that calls into question the desire or ability of a country to repay its foreign debts (and wars are great excuses to stiff your creditors if they happen to be attacking you) will rock the financial world.

Heck, anything that…

Image | Sounding The Alarm On The Country’s Vulnerability To An EMP
Sounding The Alarm On The Country’s Vulnerability To An EMP
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

In the past here at Peak Prosperity, we’ve written extensively on the threat posed by a sustained loss of electrical grid power. More specifically, we've warned that the most damaging threat to our grid would come from either a manmade or natural electromagnetic pulse (EMP).

Recently, we've been contacted by a well-connected group of powerful people who have formed a commission to study the matter, and have recently made a public and urgent appeal in an open letter to President Obama to take this threat seriously.
Sounding The Alarm On The Country’s Vulnerability To An EMP
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In the past here at Peak Prosperity, we’ve written extensively on the threat posed by a sustained loss of electrical grid power. More specifically, we've warned that the most damaging threat to our grid would come from either a manmade or natural electromagnetic pulse (EMP).

Recently, we've been contacted by a well-connected group of powerful people who have formed a commission to study the matter, and have recently made a public and urgent appeal in an open letter to President Obama to take this threat seriously.
Image | Neil Howe: What To Expect From The Fourth Turning We’re Now In
Neil Howe: What To Expect From The Fourth Turning We’re Now In
by Adam Taggart

Fourth turnings are characterized by a growing demand for social order, yet supply of it remains weak. The emergence of the surveillance state, a perpetual war machine, increased intervention in the markets by the central planners, greater government control of critical systems like health care and the Internet — all of these are classic signs that we are well into a fourth turning now.
Neil Howe: What To Expect From The Fourth Turning We’re Now In
 by Adam Taggart

Fourth turnings are characterized by a growing demand for social order, yet supply of it remains weak. The emergence of the surveillance state, a perpetual war machine, increased intervention in the markets by the central planners, greater government control of critical systems like health care and the Internet — all of these are classic signs that we are well into a fourth turning now.
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