Charles Hugh Smith
Executive Summary
- Sentiment measurement is proving to be an unreliable indicator
- Classic technical analysis is inconclusive but hints there is still weakness that needs to be flushed from the system
- The current era is feeling like 2007/2008 – gold could rebound strongly this year if enough weak economic data makes it out into the public
- The factors to look for that will indicate a price reversal is imminent
If you have not yet read Part I: Charting Gold, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
A Technical Analysis of Where the Gold Price is Likely to Go Next
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- Sentiment measurement is proving to be an unreliable indicator
- Classic technical analysis is inconclusive but hints there is still weakness that needs to be flushed from the system
- The current era is feeling like 2007/2008 – gold could rebound strongly this year if enough weak economic data makes it out into the public
- The factors to look for that will indicate a price reversal is imminent
If you have not yet read Part I: Charting Gold, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Executive Summary
- The importance of "ownership" of specialized & skills
- Why decentralization of work (vs the traditional hierarchical organization) is the future
- Why disruption and fluidity will be the norm for most sectors of the economy
- Why flexibility, innovation and self-reliance will be the hallmarks of the successful post-capitlaist worker
If you have not yet read Part I: We're Living Through a Rare Economic Transformation, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we reviewed the basic structure of what author Peter Drucker termed the post-capitalist society, a knowledge economy based on a model of decentralized, perpetually innovating organizations.
In Part II, we ask: How do we turn these structural insights to our own advantage?
Structural Inequality
I want to start with the social-political-economic divide that is endemic to the knowledge economy: the widening gap between the class of knowledge workers, which Drucker understood would be the smaller of the two classes, and service workers.
In broad brush, those workers and enterprises engaged in sectors that generate most of the wealth creation will do much better financially than those engaged in low-margin sectors. In the knowledge economy, those with high-level, specialized skills will create more value and thus be better compensated than those with generalized knowledge and/or lower-level skills.
A fast-food worker, for example, is the modern-day assembly-line worker. The entire process of assembling and serving fast food is highly organized for speed and efficiency. But since the product is not high-value, the workers cannot be highly compensated for this work.
As Drucker recognized, all work requires management, and all organizations need to learn to innovate. This creates opportunities for highly trained, specialized workers and managers, but it doesn’t do away with service jobs, which will remain more numerous than knowledge-intensive jobs.
This leads to a sobering conclusion: Just producing more highly educated workers does not create a demand for those workers’ skills…
Positioning Yourself to Prosper in the Post-Capitalist Economy
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- The importance of "ownership" of specialized & skills
- Why decentralization of work (vs the traditional hierarchical organization) is the future
- Why disruption and fluidity will be the norm for most sectors of the economy
- Why flexibility, innovation and self-reliance will be the hallmarks of the successful post-capitlaist worker
If you have not yet read Part I: We're Living Through a Rare Economic Transformation, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we reviewed the basic structure of what author Peter Drucker termed the post-capitalist society, a knowledge economy based on a model of decentralized, perpetually innovating organizations.
In Part II, we ask: How do we turn these structural insights to our own advantage?
Structural Inequality
I want to start with the social-political-economic divide that is endemic to the knowledge economy: the widening gap between the class of knowledge workers, which Drucker understood would be the smaller of the two classes, and service workers.
In broad brush, those workers and enterprises engaged in sectors that generate most of the wealth creation will do much better financially than those engaged in low-margin sectors. In the knowledge economy, those with high-level, specialized skills will create more value and thus be better compensated than those with generalized knowledge and/or lower-level skills.
A fast-food worker, for example, is the modern-day assembly-line worker. The entire process of assembling and serving fast food is highly organized for speed and efficiency. But since the product is not high-value, the workers cannot be highly compensated for this work.
As Drucker recognized, all work requires management, and all organizations need to learn to innovate. This creates opportunities for highly trained, specialized workers and managers, but it doesn’t do away with service jobs, which will remain more numerous than knowledge-intensive jobs.
This leads to a sobering conclusion: Just producing more highly educated workers does not create a demand for those workers’ skills…
In 1993, management guru Peter Drucker published a short book entitled Post-Capitalist Society. Despite the fact that the Internet was still in its pre-browser infancy, Drucker identified the developed-world economies as knowledge-based – as opposed to from industrial economies, which were were from the agrarian societies they superseded.
Drucker used the term post-capitalist not to suggest the emergence of a new “ism” beyond the free market, but to describe a new economic order that was no longer defined by the adversarial classes of labor and the owners of capital. Now that knowledge has trumped financial capital and labor alike, the new classes are knowledge workers and service workers.
We’re Living Through a Rare Economic Transformation
by charleshughsmithIn 1993, management guru Peter Drucker published a short book entitled Post-Capitalist Society. Despite the fact that the Internet was still in its pre-browser infancy, Drucker identified the developed-world economies as knowledge-based – as opposed to from industrial economies, which were were from the agrarian societies they superseded.
Drucker used the term post-capitalist not to suggest the emergence of a new “ism” beyond the free market, but to describe a new economic order that was no longer defined by the adversarial classes of labor and the owners of capital. Now that knowledge has trumped financial capital and labor alike, the new classes are knowledge workers and service workers.
In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith do something a little different.
Given the thoughtful and in-depth discussion resulting in our recent article on the future of the dollar's purchasing power, Chris and Charles engage in a fundamentals-based debate on the outlook for the U.S. dollar over the next decade.
This is one of those instances in which Charles, a valued contributing editor to Peak Prosperity, sees the future differently than Chris…
Off the Cuff: Whither the US Dollar?
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonIn this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith do something a little different.
Given the thoughtful and in-depth discussion resulting in our recent article on the future of the dollar's purchasing power, Chris and Charles engage in a fundamentals-based debate on the outlook for the U.S. dollar over the next decade.
This is one of those instances in which Charles, a valued contributing editor to Peak Prosperity, sees the future differently than Chris…
Executive Summary
- Intervention in the housing market by central planners is experiencing diminishing returns
- The four major trend reversals most likely to depress housing prices in the coming future
- The power deflationary force of reversion to (or perhaps below?) the mean
- Why demographics do not support rising prices
If you have not yet read Part I: The Unsafe Foundation of Our Housing 'Recovery', available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we sketched out the larger context of the housing market: the dramatic rise of mortgage debt, the stagnation of income for 90% of households and the unprecedented scope of Central Planning intervention in the housing and mortgage markets.
In Part II, examine what will likely cause this nascent rise in housing prices to reverse, and to resume the decline Central Planning halted in 2009.
Intervention Has Only One Way to Go: Diminishing Returns
As noted in Part I, every Central Planning support of the mortgage and housing markets has already been pushed to the maximum, so there is nowhere left to go. Interest rates are already negative, over 90% of the mortgage market is backed by Federal agencies, the Fed has already pledged to buy trillions of dollars in mortgages, etc.
Four years of this massive intervention has stripped the mortgage and housing markets of the ability to price risk, capital, and assets. This has created a culture of supreme complacency, as participants have come to believe interest rates will stay near-zero for the foreseeable future and Central Planning intervention is permanent.
But nothing is permanent in life. And the current extremes of intervention and complacency have set the stage for some important reversals:
The Forces That Will Reverse Housing’s Recent Gains
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- Intervention in the housing market by central planners is experiencing diminishing returns
- The four major trend reversals most likely to depress housing prices in the coming future
- The power deflationary force of reversion to (or perhaps below?) the mean
- Why demographics do not support rising prices
If you have not yet read Part I: The Unsafe Foundation of Our Housing 'Recovery', available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we sketched out the larger context of the housing market: the dramatic rise of mortgage debt, the stagnation of income for 90% of households and the unprecedented scope of Central Planning intervention in the housing and mortgage markets.
In Part II, examine what will likely cause this nascent rise in housing prices to reverse, and to resume the decline Central Planning halted in 2009.
Intervention Has Only One Way to Go: Diminishing Returns
As noted in Part I, every Central Planning support of the mortgage and housing markets has already been pushed to the maximum, so there is nowhere left to go. Interest rates are already negative, over 90% of the mortgage market is backed by Federal agencies, the Fed has already pledged to buy trillions of dollars in mortgages, etc.
Four years of this massive intervention has stripped the mortgage and housing markets of the ability to price risk, capital, and assets. This has created a culture of supreme complacency, as participants have come to believe interest rates will stay near-zero for the foreseeable future and Central Planning intervention is permanent.
But nothing is permanent in life. And the current extremes of intervention and complacency have set the stage for some important reversals:
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