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Image | Peak Insider Live – July Edition
Peak Insider Live – July Edition
 PREVIEW
by danelarsen

Welcome to Peak Insider Live with Chris and Evie – a dynamic, interactive virtual event that brings you to the pulse of the world. Join us for a stimulating discussion where the current landscapes are not just explored, but broken down into understandable, engaging, and relevant bites of information. Chris and Evie bring their broad-ranging…
Peak Insider Live – July Edition
 PREVIEW by danelarsen

Welcome to Peak Insider Live with Chris and Evie – a dynamic, interactive virtual event that brings you to the pulse of the world. Join us for a stimulating discussion where the current landscapes are not just explored, but broken down into understandable, engaging, and relevant bites of information. Chris and Evie bring their broad-ranging…
Image | Payrolls and Disability, The Dollar Turns Lower, & The Nanoparticle Pandemic
Payrolls and Disability, The Dollar Turns Lower, & The Nanoparticle Pandemic
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

It was Payrolls Friday this week, along with a number of other events: Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS): +209k (0.13%) m/m, prior 0.20%.   Slowing, but positive. Temp Help (TEMPHELPN): -56k (-1.86%) m/m; recession hint. Part-Time Work (LNS12032196): +124k (+13.08%) m/m; recession hint. Avg Hourly Earnings (CES0500000003): 33.58 (+0.36% m/m); inflationary. Employed 16-64, With a Disability (LNU02076955+LNU0207696): +153k…
Payrolls and Disability, The Dollar Turns Lower, & The Nanoparticle Pandemic
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

It was Payrolls Friday this week, along with a number of other events: Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS): +209k (0.13%) m/m, prior 0.20%.   Slowing, but positive. Temp Help (TEMPHELPN): -56k (-1.86%) m/m; recession hint. Part-Time Work (LNS12032196): +124k (+13.08%) m/m; recession hint. Avg Hourly Earnings (CES0500000003): 33.58 (+0.36% m/m); inflationary. Employed 16-64, With a Disability (LNU02076955+LNU0207696): +153k…
Image | Huge Silver Deliveries; Populist Authoritarianism
Huge Silver Deliveries; Populist Authoritarianism
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There were a number of reports this week: Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -21B [-0.25%] w/w.  Deflationary. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): +1.5% q/q, +6.74% y/y.  Not adjusted for inflation. Personal Income (PI): +0.4% m/m.  Inflationary. Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +1.72% m/m.  New high.  Expansionaary. Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES): -6.85% m/m.  Recovery slowing.  Heavy Truck Sales…
Huge Silver Deliveries; Populist Authoritarianism
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There were a number of reports this week: Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -21B [-0.25%] w/w.  Deflationary. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): +1.5% q/q, +6.74% y/y.  Not adjusted for inflation. Personal Income (PI): +0.4% m/m.  Inflationary. Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +1.72% m/m.  New high.  Expansionaary. Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES): -6.85% m/m.  Recovery slowing.  Heavy Truck Sales…
Image | Worker Shortages, Autism Prevalance, Reactor-Northwoods
Worker Shortages, Autism Prevalance, Reactor-Northwoods
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

One report to discuss today and then the Fed Balance Sheet: Housing Starts (HOUST): +291k [+21.7%], a huge move higher.  May be seasonal. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -26.26B [-0.31%]. The big global-economic news was the BOE raising rates 50 bp (to 5%) on Thursday, when the expected move was +25 bp.  (Source – Pfizer/Reuters). “Joseph…
Worker Shortages, Autism Prevalance, Reactor-Northwoods
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

One report to discuss today and then the Fed Balance Sheet: Housing Starts (HOUST): +291k [+21.7%], a huge move higher.  May be seasonal. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -26.26B [-0.31%]. The big global-economic news was the BOE raising rates 50 bp (to 5%) on Thursday, when the expected move was +25 bp.  (Source – Pfizer/Reuters). “Joseph…
Image | Hawkish Pauses, Deflation, and The Old Man who Lost his Horse
Hawkish Pauses, Deflation, and The Old Man who Lost his Horse
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Five reports and the balance sheet this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +0.34% m/m, prior +0.37% m/m.  Mildly recessionary (1y horizon). Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.16% m/m, prior +0.51% m/m.  Mildly recessionary (1y horizon). Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.12% m/m, prior +0.37% m/m.  Inflation (1y horizon). Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.24% m/m, prior +0.01% m/m.  Deflation (1m and…
Hawkish Pauses, Deflation, and The Old Man who Lost his Horse
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Five reports and the balance sheet this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +0.34% m/m, prior +0.37% m/m.  Mildly recessionary (1y horizon). Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.16% m/m, prior +0.51% m/m.  Mildly recessionary (1y horizon). Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.12% m/m, prior +0.37% m/m.  Inflation (1y horizon). Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.24% m/m, prior +0.01% m/m.  Deflation (1m and…
Image | Fed Rate Increase Likely, Polycrisis, UFO disclosure
Fed Rate Increase Likely, Polycrisis, UFO disclosure
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

While there was a ton of “polycrisis” news this week, there were just two reports: Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): +3.4B w/w.  Mostly unchanged. ISM Services: actual 50.3, expected 52.2.  Flat. Rates appear to be lining up for a 25 bp rate increase ahead of the Fed meeting coming up on Wednesday, June 14th.  The odds…
Fed Rate Increase Likely, Polycrisis, UFO disclosure
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

While there was a ton of “polycrisis” news this week, there were just two reports: Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): +3.4B w/w.  Mostly unchanged. ISM Services: actual 50.3, expected 52.2.  Flat. Rates appear to be lining up for a 25 bp rate increase ahead of the Fed meeting coming up on Wednesday, June 14th.  The odds…
Image | More Disability & A Fix For Mass Formation?
More Disability & A Fix For Mass Formation?
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Four reports this week – payrolls, ISM, the Fed balance sheet, and total bank credit Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS): +339k, expected +190k, prior +294k.  Expansion. Unemployment (UNRATE) 3.7%, prior 3.4%, expected 3.5%.   Low, Sideways Trend. Employed Part-Time – Could Only Find Part-Time Work (LNS12032196): +7k, but in a downtrend.  Expansion. CLF 16-64, With a Disability, Men+Women…
More Disability & A Fix For Mass Formation?
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Four reports this week – payrolls, ISM, the Fed balance sheet, and total bank credit Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS): +339k, expected +190k, prior +294k.  Expansion. Unemployment (UNRATE) 3.7%, prior 3.4%, expected 3.5%.   Low, Sideways Trend. Employed Part-Time – Could Only Find Part-Time Work (LNS12032196): +7k, but in a downtrend.  Expansion. CLF 16-64, With a Disability, Men+Women…
Image | PM Correction, Rate Increase Ahead, No Reform w/o Crash & Burn
PM Correction, Rate Increase Ahead, No Reform w/o Crash & Burn
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Consumer Sentiment: 59.2, expected 58.0, previous 57.7; contractionary. Q1 GDP (2nd estimate): +0.3% q/q (+1.3% annualized), up from +0.275% (1st estimate); contractionary. Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +1.1% m/m, expected -1.1% m/m, prior +3.2%; expansionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) -20B w/w; deflationary. This week both the 1 and 10-year rates moved higher, while the 1-month…
PM Correction, Rate Increase Ahead, No Reform w/o Crash & Burn
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Consumer Sentiment: 59.2, expected 58.0, previous 57.7; contractionary. Q1 GDP (2nd estimate): +0.3% q/q (+1.3% annualized), up from +0.275% (1st estimate); contractionary. Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +1.1% m/m, expected -1.1% m/m, prior +3.2%; expansionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) -20B w/w; deflationary. This week both the 1 and 10-year rates moved higher, while the 1-month…
Image | Term Spread Predicts Recession; Confidence in Childhood Vaccines Plunges
Term Spread Predicts Recession; Confidence in Childhood Vaccines Plunges
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There were 3 reports and a balance sheet this week: Industrial Production (INDPRO): +0.48% m/m, +0.24% y/y.  Short term: recovery. Retail Sales (RSAFS): +0.42% m/m, +1.57% y/y.  Short term: recovery. Housing Starts (HOUST): +2.14% m/m, -29% y/y.  Single Family house construction has been crushed (HOUST1F), down 39% y/y, while Multifamily 5+ (HOUST5F) fell just 13%. …
Term Spread Predicts Recession; Confidence in Childhood Vaccines Plunges
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There were 3 reports and a balance sheet this week: Industrial Production (INDPRO): +0.48% m/m, +0.24% y/y.  Short term: recovery. Retail Sales (RSAFS): +0.42% m/m, +1.57% y/y.  Short term: recovery. Housing Starts (HOUST): +2.14% m/m, -29% y/y.  Single Family house construction has been crushed (HOUST1F), down 39% y/y, while Multifamily 5+ (HOUST5F) fell just 13%. …
Image | More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches
More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Two economic reports, and a Balance Sheet: Producer Price Index (PPIACO): +0.08% m/m, -3.08% y/y.  Deflationary. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.37% m/m, +4.72% y/y.  Inflationary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -0.01% w/w, -5.16% y/y.  Neutral. I believe that the drop in PPI y/y is explained by oil’s $45 plunge over the past 12 months.  Check out…
More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Two economic reports, and a Balance Sheet: Producer Price Index (PPIACO): +0.08% m/m, -3.08% y/y.  Deflationary. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.37% m/m, +4.72% y/y.  Inflationary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -0.01% w/w, -5.16% y/y.  Neutral. I believe that the drop in PPI y/y is explained by oil’s $45 plunge over the past 12 months.  Check out…
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