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by Adam Taggart

Earlier this week, Chris was invited to appear on Talk Radio Europe, the largest English-speaking radio station in continental Europe. A podcast of the interview has just been made available, which you can listen to by clicking here or on the image below:

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The discussion focused heavily on the looming Peak Oil crisis, with a particular slant on implications for the European countries. The subject matter resonated with the host, Richie Allen, particularly because he’s now beginning to hear related sentiment echoed by a small but growing number of concerned European economists.

Chris on Talk Radio Europe: “Gigantic Mismatch” Between World Oil Consumption and Future Supply
by Adam Taggart

Earlier this week, Chris was invited to appear on Talk Radio Europe, the largest English-speaking radio station in continental Europe. A podcast of the interview has just been made available, which you can listen to by clicking here or on the image below:

 height=

The discussion focused heavily on the looming Peak Oil crisis, with a particular slant on implications for the European countries. The subject matter resonated with the host, Richie Allen, particularly because he’s now beginning to hear related sentiment echoed by a small but growing number of concerned European economists.

by Chris Martenson

This post is a contribution to Honda’s “Racing Against Time” thought leadership series.  Chris Martenson was selected to provide a unique perspective on how we should approach the discussion of oil as a finite energy source.   During the first week of October 2010, five individuals provide their own thoughts on the subject. These independent contributors were not compensated for their participation and as such their views are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Honda.  Details and links to what others are saying about “Racing Against Time” can be found at www.facebook.com/Honda.


 

Peak Oil will result in ‘peak economy.’  Once it arrives, nothing will work quite the same way again.

Let me explain.

The concept of “Peak Oil” is simple enough:  Oil is a finite resource.  Someday, no matter how hard we try, we will hit a maximum rate of production.  From that time on, we will see less and less oil coming up out of the ground.  What Peak Oil refers to, then, is not “running out” of oil, but the fact that we are going to hit peak production sooner or later.  All of the data suggests that “sooner” is a better candidate than “later.”

By itself, the concept of having to get by on just a little bit less oil each year seems to be manageable enough.  Perhaps we can develop more hybrid/electric cars, wind/solar farms, and other technologies that can help us use energy more efficiently.  I will applaud these technologies as they become more widely available, but basic math indicates that they cannot possibly bridge the energy gap being left by retreating oil supplies fast enough.  So then what?

My particular concern, and the focus of my writing and speaking, is the role of energy in creating and supporting the economy upon which we all depend.  The short version of the story is this:  Our economy utterly depends on oil to function.  And for the first time ever, oil production is declining.  We are now racing against time.

Racing Against Time: Peak Oil = Peak Economy
by Chris Martenson

This post is a contribution to Honda’s “Racing Against Time” thought leadership series.  Chris Martenson was selected to provide a unique perspective on how we should approach the discussion of oil as a finite energy source.   During the first week of October 2010, five individuals provide their own thoughts on the subject. These independent contributors were not compensated for their participation and as such their views are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Honda.  Details and links to what others are saying about “Racing Against Time” can be found at www.facebook.com/Honda.


 

Peak Oil will result in ‘peak economy.’  Once it arrives, nothing will work quite the same way again.

Let me explain.

The concept of “Peak Oil” is simple enough:  Oil is a finite resource.  Someday, no matter how hard we try, we will hit a maximum rate of production.  From that time on, we will see less and less oil coming up out of the ground.  What Peak Oil refers to, then, is not “running out” of oil, but the fact that we are going to hit peak production sooner or later.  All of the data suggests that “sooner” is a better candidate than “later.”

By itself, the concept of having to get by on just a little bit less oil each year seems to be manageable enough.  Perhaps we can develop more hybrid/electric cars, wind/solar farms, and other technologies that can help us use energy more efficiently.  I will applaud these technologies as they become more widely available, but basic math indicates that they cannot possibly bridge the energy gap being left by retreating oil supplies fast enough.  So then what?

My particular concern, and the focus of my writing and speaking, is the role of energy in creating and supporting the economy upon which we all depend.  The short version of the story is this:  Our economy utterly depends on oil to function.  And for the first time ever, oil production is declining.  We are now racing against time.

by Chris Martenson

Energy Concerns Are Mounting

Monday, September 13, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Many interlocking factors have caused current economic woes.
  • Most of the issues are still almost strictly economically driven; energy’s role is still to come.
  • World energy consumption, at current rates of growth, will double in 35 years.
  • Alternative fuels cannot displace oil use, but they can be helpful in electricity production and other areas.
  • We should be using our highly-concentrated energy sources to capture less-dense alternative energy sources.
  • The next energy shock is closer than most people realize.
  • The perception of scarcity will create scarcity.
  • Now is the time for prudent preparations.

In my last Insider entry, I made a number of claims that sparked a lot of good comments.  I will respond to a sampling of them here.  If I don’t address your comment, please know that I read and considered every one. I value and encourage continued input through comments, forum posts, and email.

There are multiple interlocking topics embedded in the question, “Why is the economy down right now?” I don’t see any one particular cause.  Yes, there was too much debt, but there was also falling net energy from flat petroleum production between 2004 and 2008.  Oil also happened to spike in price.  Which one ’caused’ the economic meltdown and the deep freeze that followed?  All of these factors, and a few others besides.

Energy Concerns Are Mounting
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Energy Concerns Are Mounting

Monday, September 13, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Many interlocking factors have caused current economic woes.
  • Most of the issues are still almost strictly economically driven; energy’s role is still to come.
  • World energy consumption, at current rates of growth, will double in 35 years.
  • Alternative fuels cannot displace oil use, but they can be helpful in electricity production and other areas.
  • We should be using our highly-concentrated energy sources to capture less-dense alternative energy sources.
  • The next energy shock is closer than most people realize.
  • The perception of scarcity will create scarcity.
  • Now is the time for prudent preparations.

In my last Insider entry, I made a number of claims that sparked a lot of good comments.  I will respond to a sampling of them here.  If I don’t address your comment, please know that I read and considered every one. I value and encourage continued input through comments, forum posts, and email.

There are multiple interlocking topics embedded in the question, “Why is the economy down right now?” I don’t see any one particular cause.  Yes, there was too much debt, but there was also falling net energy from flat petroleum production between 2004 and 2008.  Oil also happened to spike in price.  Which one ’caused’ the economic meltdown and the deep freeze that followed?  All of these factors, and a few others besides.

by Chris Martenson
A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.
Link – Deep Impact: Why The Deepwater Disaster Spells Serious Trouble

Executive Summary

  • We can say with absolute certainty that future oil exploration and development costs are going to rise.
  • Our date with an oil supply shock now seems probable for the 2011 to 2012 timeframe.
  • A new paradigm is emerging, in which downsizing trumps growth.
  • A permanent energy crunch will lead to higher prices for all things connected to energy.
  • It would not be too strong to suggest that our federal commitment to energy efficiency is a farce. 
  • In terms of personal planning, do not take anything for granted.
  • While I am not sure how this will play out yet, I am quite comfortable stating that the age of abundance is drawing to a close.
Deep Impact: Why The Deepwater Disaster Spells Serious Trouble
by Chris Martenson
A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.
Link – Deep Impact: Why The Deepwater Disaster Spells Serious Trouble

Executive Summary

  • We can say with absolute certainty that future oil exploration and development costs are going to rise.
  • Our date with an oil supply shock now seems probable for the 2011 to 2012 timeframe.
  • A new paradigm is emerging, in which downsizing trumps growth.
  • A permanent energy crunch will lead to higher prices for all things connected to energy.
  • It would not be too strong to suggest that our federal commitment to energy efficiency is a farce. 
  • In terms of personal planning, do not take anything for granted.
  • While I am not sure how this will play out yet, I am quite comfortable stating that the age of abundance is drawing to a close.
by Chris Martenson

This guest post by Erik Townsend really elevates the discussion around the issue of investing in oil and energy given the realities involved in what Peak Oil truly implies politically and economically.  Few in the investing community have really fully internalized the magnitude of the predicament, but Erik has.

If we had a post rating system, this would receive the very highest mark.


By Erik Townsend ∙ May 3, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Although there’s more than 100 years’ supply of crude oil left in the ground, the resources that are “cheap and easy” to extract have for the most part already been discovered.
  • By 2012 the decline of production output from conventional sources coupled with much higher extraction cost of unconventional sources will lead to peak cheap oil, a phenomenon that will put extreme upward pressure on oil prices.
  • To a limited extent, a strong case exists for speculation on a moderate increase in petroleum prices.
  • Those who anticipate extraordinarily high prices (upwards of $300/bbl) have failed to consider what George Soros calls reflexivity. The global economy simply cannot afford such prices, and the rules will be changed before they are reached.
  • The future is likely to bring price controls, government intervention in the petroleum supply chain, and nationalization of oil resources.
  • The oil industry will face many unanticipated challenges during this period, capping the price appreciation potential of both commodity and equity plays in the oil industry.
  • Wise investors will focus on the initial price run-up expected to occur before large-scale government intervention ensues.

Why “Peak Oil” Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
by Chris Martenson

This guest post by Erik Townsend really elevates the discussion around the issue of investing in oil and energy given the realities involved in what Peak Oil truly implies politically and economically.  Few in the investing community have really fully internalized the magnitude of the predicament, but Erik has.

If we had a post rating system, this would receive the very highest mark.


By Erik Townsend ∙ May 3, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Although there’s more than 100 years’ supply of crude oil left in the ground, the resources that are “cheap and easy” to extract have for the most part already been discovered.
  • By 2012 the decline of production output from conventional sources coupled with much higher extraction cost of unconventional sources will lead to peak cheap oil, a phenomenon that will put extreme upward pressure on oil prices.
  • To a limited extent, a strong case exists for speculation on a moderate increase in petroleum prices.
  • Those who anticipate extraordinarily high prices (upwards of $300/bbl) have failed to consider what George Soros calls reflexivity. The global economy simply cannot afford such prices, and the rules will be changed before they are reached.
  • The future is likely to bring price controls, government intervention in the petroleum supply chain, and nationalization of oil resources.
  • The oil industry will face many unanticipated challenges during this period, capping the price appreciation potential of both commodity and equity plays in the oil industry.
  • Wise investors will focus on the initial price run-up expected to occur before large-scale government intervention ensues.

by Chris Martenson

In the most recent Martenson Report, I laid the foundation for understanding that China may be on an aggressive policy of resource acquisition tuned to the reality of depletion.

Here are a couple of very interesting ideas and news items that have come out.  The first is that the US government is now publicly concerned that China may be trying to “lock up” oil reserves.  I find this somewhat humorous because this message is conveyed without the slightest trace of irony.  This, of course, has been the US’s own policy for a very long time.

China Follow-Up, Energy, and the Future
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In the most recent Martenson Report, I laid the foundation for understanding that China may be on an aggressive policy of resource acquisition tuned to the reality of depletion.

Here are a couple of very interesting ideas and news items that have come out.  The first is that the US government is now publicly concerned that China may be trying to “lock up” oil reserves.  I find this somewhat humorous because this message is conveyed without the slightest trace of irony.  This, of course, has been the US’s own policy for a very long time.

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