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Economy
by
Chris Martenson
Today we’re introducing something new that we think you’ll enjoy.
From time to time, in between the long hours Chris spends compiling his in-depth reports or preparing for interviews, I’m able to coax him to put down the keyboard. These fun, fascinating moments are one of the best perks of my job: I get to chew the fat with Chris about interesting developments of the day and hear his unfiltered, work-in-progress thinking.
I feel kind of guilty about my good fortune here. I know there are many of you who would dearly love this opportunity to sit down informally, one-on-one with Doc M and just watch his brain run. So, we’re going to try to give our enrolled members the best substitute for this experience we can – actually, a bit better.
Better because we’re recruiting someone of Chris’ intellectual horsepower for him to spar with. My ego might be bruised if it weren’t another of my personal heroes: Mike “Mish” Shedlock, proprietor of the very popular and extremely well-regarded econoblog, Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis.
Introducing ‘Off The Cuff with Mish & Chris’
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonToday we’re introducing something new that we think you’ll enjoy.
From time to time, in between the long hours Chris spends compiling his in-depth reports or preparing for interviews, I’m able to coax him to put down the keyboard. These fun, fascinating moments are one of the best perks of my job: I get to chew the fat with Chris about interesting developments of the day and hear his unfiltered, work-in-progress thinking.
I feel kind of guilty about my good fortune here. I know there are many of you who would dearly love this opportunity to sit down informally, one-on-one with Doc M and just watch his brain run. So, we’re going to try to give our enrolled members the best substitute for this experience we can – actually, a bit better.
Better because we’re recruiting someone of Chris’ intellectual horsepower for him to spar with. My ego might be bruised if it weren’t another of my personal heroes: Mike “Mish” Shedlock, proprietor of the very popular and extremely well-regarded econoblog, Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis.
by
Chris Martenson
Understanding The Endgame
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Executive Summary
- Greece as a case-study in sovereign debt collapse
- Why peak oil assures we will not be able to pay our debts
- Understanding the dynamics of a future of less/no growth
- Steps we as individuals need to be taking in preparation
- How to preserve purchasing power during the coming market rout
Part I – Death by Debt
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II – Understanding The Endgame
How might the end game for a debt crisis play out? We need look no further than one of the PIIGS for our answers.
Greece
Greece is in immediate danger of defaulting on its sovereign debt. As one of the charts in Part I makes clear, the pain of such a default will land primarily on German, French, and UK banks. Sure, they can probably kick the can down the road a bit longer, but it won’t change anything.
The levels of Greek sovereign debt alone are far beyond anything that can reasonably be repaid, even under very aggressive growth scenarios.
Understanding The Endgame
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonUnderstanding The Endgame
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Executive Summary
- Greece as a case-study in sovereign debt collapse
- Why peak oil assures we will not be able to pay our debts
- Understanding the dynamics of a future of less/no growth
- Steps we as individuals need to be taking in preparation
- How to preserve purchasing power during the coming market rout
Part I – Death by Debt
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II – Understanding The Endgame
How might the end game for a debt crisis play out? We need look no further than one of the PIIGS for our answers.
Greece
Greece is in immediate danger of defaulting on its sovereign debt. As one of the charts in Part I makes clear, the pain of such a default will land primarily on German, French, and UK banks. Sure, they can probably kick the can down the road a bit longer, but it won’t change anything.
The levels of Greek sovereign debt alone are far beyond anything that can reasonably be repaid, even under very aggressive growth scenarios.
by
Chris Martenson
There has never been an economic recovery without a rebound in housing. Of course, we don’t really have an economic recovery now; it’s more of a statistical mirage, thanks to trillions in thin-air money printing. And we don’t have a recovery in housing.
I have written extensively on the housing topic over the years because a rebound in housing will be an important signpost that some sort of stable economic recovery is actually underway.
In the Crash Course chapter on bubbles, I suggested that if the housing bubble behaved like other bubbles throughout history, then 2015 would be a reasonable place to begin looking for a rebound. The evidence is now beginning to support that rough guess.
We begin with home prices, which hit a new low in the post-bust era, effectively rolling prices back to those last seen in 2002:
Housing Tumbles (or, Why the US is Headed Towards a Bond Market Disaster)
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonThere has never been an economic recovery without a rebound in housing. Of course, we don’t really have an economic recovery now; it’s more of a statistical mirage, thanks to trillions in thin-air money printing. And we don’t have a recovery in housing.
I have written extensively on the housing topic over the years because a rebound in housing will be an important signpost that some sort of stable economic recovery is actually underway.
In the Crash Course chapter on bubbles, I suggested that if the housing bubble behaved like other bubbles throughout history, then 2015 would be a reasonable place to begin looking for a rebound. The evidence is now beginning to support that rough guess.
We begin with home prices, which hit a new low in the post-bust era, effectively rolling prices back to those last seen in 2002:
by
Chris Martenson
How To Position For The Next Oil Shock
Friday, May 27, 2011
Executive Summary
- Saudi Arabia’s reserve capacity is a myth
- World oil demand is increasingly overwhelming supply
- Why exports matter more than total world production
- What the next oil shock will do to stock, bonds, commodities, precious metals, and real estate
- What you should do to prepare
Part I: Past Peak Oil – Why Time Is Now Short
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: How To Position For The Next Oil Shock
Putting It All Together
Let’s review the situation in the KSA:
- Despite assurances of 12.5 mbd of total capacity, the KSA has not yet produced more than 9 mbd on a sustained basis in 2011.
- The IEA is begging the KSA to pump more.
- The KSA has turned to outside companies to help it begin to unlock heavy oil reserves that will take a lot of time, energy, and money to prosecute.
- The KSA has a vastly expanded rig count as they expand drilling operations to produce more oil (odd behavior for a nation with an alleged 3.5 mbd of spare capacity?).
The simplest and therefore most likely explanation for all of this is that the KSA does not actually have 12.5 mbd of total capacity, it is already at peak, and it’s now struggling to maintain even 9 mbd of total output on a limited basis.
Of course, there are other possibilities, but since those will not shake the world to its bones if they happen to be true, the safe course of action here is to go with the ‘KSA is at peak’ story. Sooner or later it will be true, so there’s not a lot of harm in being early to it, while being late could be costly.
Now let’s move onto the last part of this puzzle: demand.
How To Position For The Next Oil Shock
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonHow To Position For The Next Oil Shock
Friday, May 27, 2011
Executive Summary
- Saudi Arabia’s reserve capacity is a myth
- World oil demand is increasingly overwhelming supply
- Why exports matter more than total world production
- What the next oil shock will do to stock, bonds, commodities, precious metals, and real estate
- What you should do to prepare
Part I: Past Peak Oil – Why Time Is Now Short
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: How To Position For The Next Oil Shock
Putting It All Together
Let’s review the situation in the KSA:
- Despite assurances of 12.5 mbd of total capacity, the KSA has not yet produced more than 9 mbd on a sustained basis in 2011.
- The IEA is begging the KSA to pump more.
- The KSA has turned to outside companies to help it begin to unlock heavy oil reserves that will take a lot of time, energy, and money to prosecute.
- The KSA has a vastly expanded rig count as they expand drilling operations to produce more oil (odd behavior for a nation with an alleged 3.5 mbd of spare capacity?).
The simplest and therefore most likely explanation for all of this is that the KSA does not actually have 12.5 mbd of total capacity, it is already at peak, and it’s now struggling to maintain even 9 mbd of total output on a limited basis.
Of course, there are other possibilities, but since those will not shake the world to its bones if they happen to be true, the safe course of action here is to go with the ‘KSA is at peak’ story. Sooner or later it will be true, so there’s not a lot of harm in being early to it, while being late could be costly.
Now let’s move onto the last part of this puzzle: demand.
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