There has never been an economic recovery without a rebound in housing. Of course, we don’t really have an economic recovery now; it’s more of a statistical mirage, thanks to trillions in thin-air money printing. And we don’t have a recovery in housing.
I have written extensively on the housing topic over the years because a rebound in housing will be an important signpost that some sort of stable economic recovery is actually underway.
In the Crash Course chapter on bubbles, I suggested that if the housing bubble behaved like other bubbles throughout history, then 2015 would be a reasonable place to begin looking for a rebound. The evidence is now beginning to support that rough guess.
We begin with home prices, which hit a new low in the post-bust era, effectively rolling prices back to those last seen in 2002:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Home prices hit another new low in the first quarter, down 5.1% from a year ago to levels not reached since 2002.
It was the third straight quarterly drop for the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index, which was released Tuesday. Prices are now down 32.7% from their peak set five years ago.
“Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight,” said David Blitzer, spokesman for Standard and Poor’s.
(Source)
Not only are home prices falling, but existing home sales are stagnant and new home construction remains mired in multi-decade lows:
(Source)
And why should they be anywhere else but mired at the lows? So many homes were (over)built during the boom that there’s just too much product yet for the market to absorb:
‘Shadow inventory’ of 1.8 million homes could prolong housing slump
March 31, 2011
A glut of troubled homes not yet on the market threatens to prolong a housing slump already burdened by weak job growth and a lack of enthusiasm among buyers.
This so-called shadow inventory amounted to 1.8 million properties at the end of January, Santa Ana mortgage research firm CoreLogic reported Wednesday. While that was a decrease from 2 million properties in January 2010, it remained about a nine-month supply because the sales pace has weakened this year in the absence of federal tax credits for buyers.
by emilyw 
