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by Adam Taggart

Joe Saluzzi, expert on algorithmic trading — also known as high-frequency trading, or HFT — returns as a guest this week to explain how the players behind this machine-driven process act as parasites that are destroying our financial markets (and, increasingly, even themselves).

Since Joe first spoke with us last year, HFT firms have only increased in size and share of market activity. Here are some staggering statistics on how influential they have become:

  • HTFs make up between 50-70% of the volume seen across market exchanges today.
  • 2% of the traders on many exchanges (HFTs, specifically) represent 80% of the volume.
  • A single large HFT firm (referred to as a Direct Market Maker) can account for 10%+ of a market's volume on a given day
  • Large HFT firms make between $8 to $21 billion a year.
  • HFT trades occur in milliseconds (i.e., a small fraction of the time it takes your eye to blink).

With such scale, speed, and profitability, HFTs have turned the market away from being an efficient price-setting mechanism and perverted it into a casino where the clientele of human investors gets fleeced.

Joe Saluzzi: HFT Parasites are Killing the Market Host
by Adam Taggart

Joe Saluzzi, expert on algorithmic trading — also known as high-frequency trading, or HFT — returns as a guest this week to explain how the players behind this machine-driven process act as parasites that are destroying our financial markets (and, increasingly, even themselves).

Since Joe first spoke with us last year, HFT firms have only increased in size and share of market activity. Here are some staggering statistics on how influential they have become:

  • HTFs make up between 50-70% of the volume seen across market exchanges today.
  • 2% of the traders on many exchanges (HFTs, specifically) represent 80% of the volume.
  • A single large HFT firm (referred to as a Direct Market Maker) can account for 10%+ of a market's volume on a given day
  • Large HFT firms make between $8 to $21 billion a year.
  • HFT trades occur in milliseconds (i.e., a small fraction of the time it takes your eye to blink).

With such scale, speed, and profitability, HFTs have turned the market away from being an efficient price-setting mechanism and perverted it into a casino where the clientele of human investors gets fleeced.

by charleshughsmith

If we pursue the line of inquiry established by Chris Martenson’s recent call to Buckle Up — Market Breakdown in Progress, we come to these basic questions: When will the market reflect the fundamental weakness of the global economy? And when will the market finally hit bottom?

When Will Reality Intrude?
by charleshughsmith

If we pursue the line of inquiry established by Chris Martenson’s recent call to Buckle Up — Market Breakdown in Progress, we come to these basic questions: When will the market reflect the fundamental weakness of the global economy? And when will the market finally hit bottom?

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Technical analysis offers methods for identifying long-term trend changes
  • Introducing the Coppock Curve
  • Why the Coppock Curve indicates a coming decline in the equities markets
  • If correct, it may take 8-15 months to hit the bottom of the decline before a recovery begins
  • Global markets are likely to all go down together, making finding "safe havens" more challenging

If you have not yet read Part I: When Will Reality Intrude and the Stock Market Hit Bottom?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we explored the correlation between the stock market and the real economy (tenuous in times of massive intervention) and the probability that the economy’s next trough lies between 10 and 30 weeks in the future.  We then looked to Japan’s Nikkei stock market index as a guide to equities’ performance in eras dominated by debt and deleveraging, and found that the Nikkei’s history suggests a bottom in U.S. stocks could be as far as a year away, in mid-2013.  This aligns with the possibility that the real economy hits a recessionary bottom in late 2012 and the stock market finally reflects that weakness six months later in mid-2013.

As we look at other evidence supporting a significant decline in stocks, we must keep Part I’s caveats firmly in mind:

  1. It’s possible that equities could rise to previous highs or even reach new highs in the near term, despite the recessionary stagnation of real incomes and growth, as stocks tend to be “lagging indicators” of recession.
  2. Massive monetary easing and fiscal stimulus could push “risk-on” assets (such as stocks) higher, even as the real economy weakens.
  3. Global Corporate America could continue generating profits that would support stock market valuations even as the bottom 80% of U.S. households sees further deterioration in their real incomes and balance sheets.

These three factors could support a decoupling of the stock market from the “main street” economy as measured by real (inflation adjusted) incomes and household balance sheets.

Predicting the ‘When?’ & ‘How Far?’ of the Next Market Decline
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Technical analysis offers methods for identifying long-term trend changes
  • Introducing the Coppock Curve
  • Why the Coppock Curve indicates a coming decline in the equities markets
  • If correct, it may take 8-15 months to hit the bottom of the decline before a recovery begins
  • Global markets are likely to all go down together, making finding "safe havens" more challenging

If you have not yet read Part I: When Will Reality Intrude and the Stock Market Hit Bottom?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we explored the correlation between the stock market and the real economy (tenuous in times of massive intervention) and the probability that the economy’s next trough lies between 10 and 30 weeks in the future.  We then looked to Japan’s Nikkei stock market index as a guide to equities’ performance in eras dominated by debt and deleveraging, and found that the Nikkei’s history suggests a bottom in U.S. stocks could be as far as a year away, in mid-2013.  This aligns with the possibility that the real economy hits a recessionary bottom in late 2012 and the stock market finally reflects that weakness six months later in mid-2013.

As we look at other evidence supporting a significant decline in stocks, we must keep Part I’s caveats firmly in mind:

  1. It’s possible that equities could rise to previous highs or even reach new highs in the near term, despite the recessionary stagnation of real incomes and growth, as stocks tend to be “lagging indicators” of recession.
  2. Massive monetary easing and fiscal stimulus could push “risk-on” assets (such as stocks) higher, even as the real economy weakens.
  3. Global Corporate America could continue generating profits that would support stock market valuations even as the bottom 80% of U.S. households sees further deterioration in their real incomes and balance sheets.

These three factors could support a decoupling of the stock market from the “main street” economy as measured by real (inflation adjusted) incomes and household balance sheets.

by Chris Martenson

After Alice fell down the rabbit hole, nothing made sense anymore. A new logic reigned, and she had to adapt to it as readily as she could. Talking cats that disappeared except for their grin, caterpillars perched on magic mushrooms, and other oddities had to be encountered and dealt with.

Similarly, we find ourselves suddenly confronted with a fantastical menagerie. Such as the formerly inconsequential Greek interparty political wrestling matches becoming of critical importance to the fate of the entire world banking system, stock markets mainly discounting the likelihood and size of the next round of magic money-printing, a world that has decided Spain’s 6% deficit matters a lot while the US’s 8% deficit doesn’t matter at all, untrustworthy institutions that just abscond with client money without charge, and stock markets that are now mostly in the hands of robot machines trading in sub-millisecond cycles.

The signs of distress are obvious. The old forms of logic no longer work and the new logic cannot be traded reliably, as it owes its direction to pulses of fresh money and gyrating sentiment. All asset classes trade in lockstep, with nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. It’s either risk on or risk off, and knowing which might prevail at any given moment is now a 24/7 occupation, and a risky one at that.

The entire stock market is now simply living off of expectations of the future quantitative easing (QE) efforts, with another decision or announcement expected tomorrow at 2:15 EST.

This is the world we live in now, and hardly anybody even questions it anymore.

“More Stress Is Needed”
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

After Alice fell down the rabbit hole, nothing made sense anymore. A new logic reigned, and she had to adapt to it as readily as she could. Talking cats that disappeared except for their grin, caterpillars perched on magic mushrooms, and other oddities had to be encountered and dealt with.

Similarly, we find ourselves suddenly confronted with a fantastical menagerie. Such as the formerly inconsequential Greek interparty political wrestling matches becoming of critical importance to the fate of the entire world banking system, stock markets mainly discounting the likelihood and size of the next round of magic money-printing, a world that has decided Spain’s 6% deficit matters a lot while the US’s 8% deficit doesn’t matter at all, untrustworthy institutions that just abscond with client money without charge, and stock markets that are now mostly in the hands of robot machines trading in sub-millisecond cycles.

The signs of distress are obvious. The old forms of logic no longer work and the new logic cannot be traded reliably, as it owes its direction to pulses of fresh money and gyrating sentiment. All asset classes trade in lockstep, with nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. It’s either risk on or risk off, and knowing which might prevail at any given moment is now a 24/7 occupation, and a risky one at that.

The entire stock market is now simply living off of expectations of the future quantitative easing (QE) efforts, with another decision or announcement expected tomorrow at 2:15 EST.

This is the world we live in now, and hardly anybody even questions it anymore.

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