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by Gregor Macdonald

Executive Summary

  • The growing risk of disinflation
  • Why instability in the U.S. is accelerating
  • The danger of social rifts emerging in the near future between economic classes
  • Why environmental constraints and social instability may trump energy issues going forward

If you have not yet read What Happened to the Future?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

If this is the case, it echoes the realization now dawning on economists in the U.S. that an acceleration in the economy, which many expected, is simply not going to arrive. As was discussed in previous essays, OECD GDP growth appears to be converging once again at a level below 2.00%. The U.S. is on track to achieve only 1.6% GDP growth this year. This is a primary reason why inflation, again outside of natural resources has still not broken out, or even appeared. Moreover, the U.S. and the OECD could once again be on the verge of disinflation.

One notable and important piece of the disinflation puzzle is the continued growth in inequality. As income growth narrows to a tiny vanishing point among workers, it’s become increasingly difficult to mount economic growth across many industries. Demand for goods from the 1% is robust. Demand from the rest of the populace continues to dwindle. It may be hard to believe, but policy makers, politicians, and gasp! even economists and financiers used to be deeply concerned about wealth inequality. Today, it’s as if enough time has passed for an entire generation to forget the destructive structural damage that long-term inequality can wreak on an economy.

For those of you who remember, one of the more severe cases of wealth inequality for many decades was the country of Brazil. Tellingly, it was not until Brazil elected a reformer, Lula, that the country left behind its days of boom-and-bust, debt crises, inflation, and general instability and embarked on its current path as a more balanced, sustainable economy. Coincidence? Not likely.

But what’s really scary is…

Why Social & Environmental Imbalances Are Becoming the Biggest Risks
PREVIEW by Gregor Macdonald

Executive Summary

  • The growing risk of disinflation
  • Why instability in the U.S. is accelerating
  • The danger of social rifts emerging in the near future between economic classes
  • Why environmental constraints and social instability may trump energy issues going forward

If you have not yet read What Happened to the Future?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

If this is the case, it echoes the realization now dawning on economists in the U.S. that an acceleration in the economy, which many expected, is simply not going to arrive. As was discussed in previous essays, OECD GDP growth appears to be converging once again at a level below 2.00%. The U.S. is on track to achieve only 1.6% GDP growth this year. This is a primary reason why inflation, again outside of natural resources has still not broken out, or even appeared. Moreover, the U.S. and the OECD could once again be on the verge of disinflation.

One notable and important piece of the disinflation puzzle is the continued growth in inequality. As income growth narrows to a tiny vanishing point among workers, it’s become increasingly difficult to mount economic growth across many industries. Demand for goods from the 1% is robust. Demand from the rest of the populace continues to dwindle. It may be hard to believe, but policy makers, politicians, and gasp! even economists and financiers used to be deeply concerned about wealth inequality. Today, it’s as if enough time has passed for an entire generation to forget the destructive structural damage that long-term inequality can wreak on an economy.

For those of you who remember, one of the more severe cases of wealth inequality for many decades was the country of Brazil. Tellingly, it was not until Brazil elected a reformer, Lula, that the country left behind its days of boom-and-bust, debt crises, inflation, and general instability and embarked on its current path as a more balanced, sustainable economy. Coincidence? Not likely.

But what’s really scary is…

by Chris Martenson

At the Casey Research Summit last month, Chris had the opportunity to sit down with longtime precious metals investor and proprietor of 321gold.com, Bob Moriarty.

Right before their conversation, Bob had picked up a local Arizona newspaper and read an AP article titled "US Reliability Questioned Overseas" (the government shutdown was in full swing at this time). It discussed, among other concerns voiced by foreigners, whether continuing to rely on the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is prudent given America's political dysfunction and its debt levels.

Bob Moriarty: Solving Our National Problems Starts With Sound Money
by Chris Martenson

At the Casey Research Summit last month, Chris had the opportunity to sit down with longtime precious metals investor and proprietor of 321gold.com, Bob Moriarty.

Right before their conversation, Bob had picked up a local Arizona newspaper and read an AP article titled "US Reliability Questioned Overseas" (the government shutdown was in full swing at this time). It discussed, among other concerns voiced by foreigners, whether continuing to rely on the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is prudent given America's political dysfunction and its debt levels.

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Identifying the 8 characteristics that signal a system is experiencing diminishing returns
  • The powerful advantages simplification can offer
  • Debt-avoidance as a forward strategy
  • The criticality of creating parallel, self-reliant systems

If you have not yet read Our Era’s Definitive Dynamic: Diminishing Returns, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we surveyed examples of diminishing returns and touched upon the forces that generate devotion to systems beset by diminishing returns. In Part II, we’ll look a little deeper into the dynamics, with an eye on avoiding being ensnared in systems that are doomed by dwindling yields and rising costs.

Characteristics of Diminishing Return Systems

1. Friction. Sources of what I term 'friction' include procedural impedance between dissimilar systems, fraud, inefficiencies, and processes that no longer add value but that are accepted as “the way things work.” (I wrote about systemic friction for Peak Prosperity in 2011: How Much of the U.S. Economy Is Friction?)

Common examples include the proliferating “reward cards” from retailers that fill our wallets and purses with low-value complexity and our absurdly complex income tax system that costs billions of dollars while serving primarily as a conduit for special-interest tax breaks.

2.  “Solutions” that do not address the root problem.  One example is our healthcare system’s haphazard approach to mental health: A great many mentally ill people who fall between the system’s cracks end up being incarcerated, in essence passing the cost and responsibility for mental healthcare to the already-burdened criminal justice system. Imprisoning the mentally ill is clearly a diminishing-return “solution” to our systemic lack of mental health care.

How to Overcome Diminishing Returns
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Identifying the 8 characteristics that signal a system is experiencing diminishing returns
  • The powerful advantages simplification can offer
  • Debt-avoidance as a forward strategy
  • The criticality of creating parallel, self-reliant systems

If you have not yet read Our Era’s Definitive Dynamic: Diminishing Returns, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we surveyed examples of diminishing returns and touched upon the forces that generate devotion to systems beset by diminishing returns. In Part II, we’ll look a little deeper into the dynamics, with an eye on avoiding being ensnared in systems that are doomed by dwindling yields and rising costs.

Characteristics of Diminishing Return Systems

1. Friction. Sources of what I term 'friction' include procedural impedance between dissimilar systems, fraud, inefficiencies, and processes that no longer add value but that are accepted as “the way things work.” (I wrote about systemic friction for Peak Prosperity in 2011: How Much of the U.S. Economy Is Friction?)

Common examples include the proliferating “reward cards” from retailers that fill our wallets and purses with low-value complexity and our absurdly complex income tax system that costs billions of dollars while serving primarily as a conduit for special-interest tax breaks.

2.  “Solutions” that do not address the root problem.  One example is our healthcare system’s haphazard approach to mental health: A great many mentally ill people who fall between the system’s cracks end up being incarcerated, in essence passing the cost and responsibility for mental healthcare to the already-burdened criminal justice system. Imprisoning the mentally ill is clearly a diminishing-return “solution” to our systemic lack of mental health care.

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