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by Chris Martenson

It was recently announced that the Fed planned to re-open lines with other central banks, allowing them to swap for dollars.  We’ve been down this path before.  I want to review what happened last time, because if that pattern repeats, we are about to begin a brand-new stage of financial system stress and stock market losses.

To begin, you should review this article I wrote on September 25, 2009, which describes currency swaps and does a post-mortem on the relationship between dollar swap volumes and strength in the US dollar index.  The correlation was pretty tight.

Here’s the primary image from that article with some of the text that followed it:

Currency Swaps Spell Trouble?
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

It was recently announced that the Fed planned to re-open lines with other central banks, allowing them to swap for dollars.  We’ve been down this path before.  I want to review what happened last time, because if that pattern repeats, we are about to begin a brand-new stage of financial system stress and stock market losses.

To begin, you should review this article I wrote on September 25, 2009, which describes currency swaps and does a post-mortem on the relationship between dollar swap volumes and strength in the US dollar index.  The correlation was pretty tight.

Here’s the primary image from that article with some of the text that followed it:

by Chris Martenson

This guest post by Erik Townsend really elevates the discussion around the issue of investing in oil and energy given the realities involved in what Peak Oil truly implies politically and economically.  Few in the investing community have really fully internalized the magnitude of the predicament, but Erik has.

If we had a post rating system, this would receive the very highest mark.


By Erik Townsend ∙ May 3, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Although there’s more than 100 years’ supply of crude oil left in the ground, the resources that are “cheap and easy” to extract have for the most part already been discovered.
  • By 2012 the decline of production output from conventional sources coupled with much higher extraction cost of unconventional sources will lead to peak cheap oil, a phenomenon that will put extreme upward pressure on oil prices.
  • To a limited extent, a strong case exists for speculation on a moderate increase in petroleum prices.
  • Those who anticipate extraordinarily high prices (upwards of $300/bbl) have failed to consider what George Soros calls reflexivity. The global economy simply cannot afford such prices, and the rules will be changed before they are reached.
  • The future is likely to bring price controls, government intervention in the petroleum supply chain, and nationalization of oil resources.
  • The oil industry will face many unanticipated challenges during this period, capping the price appreciation potential of both commodity and equity plays in the oil industry.
  • Wise investors will focus on the initial price run-up expected to occur before large-scale government intervention ensues.

Why “Peak Oil” Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
by Chris Martenson

This guest post by Erik Townsend really elevates the discussion around the issue of investing in oil and energy given the realities involved in what Peak Oil truly implies politically and economically.  Few in the investing community have really fully internalized the magnitude of the predicament, but Erik has.

If we had a post rating system, this would receive the very highest mark.


By Erik Townsend ∙ May 3, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Although there’s more than 100 years’ supply of crude oil left in the ground, the resources that are “cheap and easy” to extract have for the most part already been discovered.
  • By 2012 the decline of production output from conventional sources coupled with much higher extraction cost of unconventional sources will lead to peak cheap oil, a phenomenon that will put extreme upward pressure on oil prices.
  • To a limited extent, a strong case exists for speculation on a moderate increase in petroleum prices.
  • Those who anticipate extraordinarily high prices (upwards of $300/bbl) have failed to consider what George Soros calls reflexivity. The global economy simply cannot afford such prices, and the rules will be changed before they are reached.
  • The future is likely to bring price controls, government intervention in the petroleum supply chain, and nationalization of oil resources.
  • The oil industry will face many unanticipated challenges during this period, capping the price appreciation potential of both commodity and equity plays in the oil industry.
  • Wise investors will focus on the initial price run-up expected to occur before large-scale government intervention ensues.

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