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Economy
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- The math explaining why Ukraine was a predictable flashpoint
- Why the IMF's "help" is about to make the Ukranian situation a lot worse
- Implications for those considering relocating inside or outside of the US
- Chris' "must have" ingredients that make a potential relocation destination worth considering
If you have not yet read Rising Resource Costs Escalate Odds of Global Unrest, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Ukraine
Now back to Dave’s original series of questions. I think that Ukraine was primed and ready for a shove into instability.
There’s a well known psychology experiment where two male rats can be placed in a cage where they will live somewhat happily as long as they have sufficient food. However, if painful electric shocks are applied to the floor of the cage in such a way that the rats cannot escape, the two males will begin fighting.
Keep up the shocks long enough and the fighting will be severe, even to the death.
What’s happening? The rats lack the context to know that the shocks are coming from outside somewhere. The only thing they can project their discomfort onto is the only other living thing in their sight – the other rat.
So they fight.
Similarly, the people of Ukraine lack the context to know just who is to blame for the unpleasant conditions in which they live and seemingly cannot escape. So they blame each other and fight each other. They blame the President and so he’s gone. But the next one, and the ones following, will be just as bad; and eventually they will each be in turn ousted, too.
The problem is the shocks are not being caused by players they can see and blame. We’ll get to more on that in a minute.
By the numbers, the …:
What To Avoid When Relocating
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- The math explaining why Ukraine was a predictable flashpoint
- Why the IMF's "help" is about to make the Ukranian situation a lot worse
- Implications for those considering relocating inside or outside of the US
- Chris' "must have" ingredients that make a potential relocation destination worth considering
If you have not yet read Rising Resource Costs Escalate Odds of Global Unrest, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Ukraine
Now back to Dave’s original series of questions. I think that Ukraine was primed and ready for a shove into instability.
There’s a well known psychology experiment where two male rats can be placed in a cage where they will live somewhat happily as long as they have sufficient food. However, if painful electric shocks are applied to the floor of the cage in such a way that the rats cannot escape, the two males will begin fighting.
Keep up the shocks long enough and the fighting will be severe, even to the death.
What’s happening? The rats lack the context to know that the shocks are coming from outside somewhere. The only thing they can project their discomfort onto is the only other living thing in their sight – the other rat.
So they fight.
Similarly, the people of Ukraine lack the context to know just who is to blame for the unpleasant conditions in which they live and seemingly cannot escape. So they blame each other and fight each other. They blame the President and so he’s gone. But the next one, and the ones following, will be just as bad; and eventually they will each be in turn ousted, too.
The problem is the shocks are not being caused by players they can see and blame. We’ll get to more on that in a minute.
By the numbers, the …:
by
charleshughsmith
In my previous series on the erosion of community, I surveyed a number of conventional explanations for this decades-long trend and discussed 10 other potential factors in the decline of social capital. I concluded that economic need would likely be the driver of a resurgence of community—a need that will only become apparent when the Central State and the debt-based, consumerist-corporate system are no longer able to fulfill their implicit promises of welfare, subsidies, endless credit and secure jobs. In this next installment on community, we look at the possibility that new models are arising beneath the mainstream media’s master narratives that Everything’s fine and The Status Quo is both good and eternal.
The Rise of New Models of Community
by charleshughsmithIn my previous series on the erosion of community, I surveyed a number of conventional explanations for this decades-long trend and discussed 10 other potential factors in the decline of social capital. I concluded that economic need would likely be the driver of a resurgence of community—a need that will only become apparent when the Central State and the debt-based, consumerist-corporate system are no longer able to fulfill their implicit promises of welfare, subsidies, endless credit and secure jobs. In this next installment on community, we look at the possibility that new models are arising beneath the mainstream media’s master narratives that Everything’s fine and The Status Quo is both good and eternal.
by
Adam Taggart
by
JHK
by
Gregor Macdonald
Executive Summary
- Anemic employment & wages growth depresses the odds of near-term interest rate hikes
- Why energy costs increases are experiencing a lull, keeping inflation lower than many expected
- The demographic arguments for deflation
- Why the US is becoming more vulnerable to a repricing of natural gas — vs oil — in the coming decade
If you have not yet read Part I: When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The most recent US jobs report was once again a disappointment, despite the headline number of 192,000 jobs created. Over the past two years, the economy has reliably created about 150,000 jobs per month. This has been just enough to keep up with population growth, but alas, not enough to put the long-term unemployed back to work. The concerning data in the report came in the details of the jobs created: as usual–and this has been a trend for several years now–mostly in the lower wage sectors. A few wrap-up tweets from Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital summed up the facts rather nicely:
#BLS OK, here’s the result: 49.21% of all jobs created in March were in the low wage sectors – reverting to situation we saw last year (1/2)
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) April 4, 2014
#BLS …and, in March, hourly wages FELL…down one penny overall and down 2 cents for production and non-supervisory workers. NOT GOOD.
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) April 4, 2014
Other notable observations from recent trends in US jobs reports include the fact that job creation in 2013 was no higher than in 2012. Not exactly an encouraging trend for those who would be looking for inflation risk, or strong growth in 2014.
But perhaps worst of all has been the number of workers leaving the workforce. Part of this can be explained, of course, by demographic retirements. It’s no secret that the US has an aging population, and there’s a bulge of retiring workers that will admittedly create some gaps in the labor market over the next decade. But the large numbers of workers exiting the workforce is also explained by discouraged workers, and that unemployment benefits for many have started running out.
What many in the public do not understand, is that workers taking unemployment checks are counted as active seekers of employment. They are added to the composition of the workforce, and when they continue to take unemployment checks but do not find work, they serve to keep the unemployment rate elevated. But when unemployment benefits expire, and workers leave the workforce, the unemployment rate may…
Why Demand Will Become Even More Scarce
PREVIEW by Gregor MacdonaldExecutive Summary
- Anemic employment & wages growth depresses the odds of near-term interest rate hikes
- Why energy costs increases are experiencing a lull, keeping inflation lower than many expected
- The demographic arguments for deflation
- Why the US is becoming more vulnerable to a repricing of natural gas — vs oil — in the coming decade
If you have not yet read Part I: When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The most recent US jobs report was once again a disappointment, despite the headline number of 192,000 jobs created. Over the past two years, the economy has reliably created about 150,000 jobs per month. This has been just enough to keep up with population growth, but alas, not enough to put the long-term unemployed back to work. The concerning data in the report came in the details of the jobs created: as usual–and this has been a trend for several years now–mostly in the lower wage sectors. A few wrap-up tweets from Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital summed up the facts rather nicely:
#BLS OK, here’s the result: 49.21% of all jobs created in March were in the low wage sectors – reverting to situation we saw last year (1/2)
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) April 4, 2014
#BLS …and, in March, hourly wages FELL…down one penny overall and down 2 cents for production and non-supervisory workers. NOT GOOD.
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) April 4, 2014
Other notable observations from recent trends in US jobs reports include the fact that job creation in 2013 was no higher than in 2012. Not exactly an encouraging trend for those who would be looking for inflation risk, or strong growth in 2014.
But perhaps worst of all has been the number of workers leaving the workforce. Part of this can be explained, of course, by demographic retirements. It’s no secret that the US has an aging population, and there’s a bulge of retiring workers that will admittedly create some gaps in the labor market over the next decade. But the large numbers of workers exiting the workforce is also explained by discouraged workers, and that unemployment benefits for many have started running out.
What many in the public do not understand, is that workers taking unemployment checks are counted as active seekers of employment. They are added to the composition of the workforce, and when they continue to take unemployment checks but do not find work, they serve to keep the unemployment rate elevated. But when unemployment benefits expire, and workers leave the workforce, the unemployment rate may…
by
Chris Martenson
In a recent podcast with Michael Shuman discussing local economies, Shuman praised the progress made in Burlington, Vermont over the past 25 years — largely led by a local activist named Bruce Seifer who co-authored the book Sustainable Communities: Creating a Durable Local Economy. This caught the attention of a number of PeakProsperity.com readers and, at their request, we invited Bruce to speak specifically about the urban revitalization he has helped bring about in Burlington, and what other communities can learn from that model.
Bruce Seifer: Creating A Durable Local Economy
by Chris MartensonIn a recent podcast with Michael Shuman discussing local economies, Shuman praised the progress made in Burlington, Vermont over the past 25 years — largely led by a local activist named Bruce Seifer who co-authored the book Sustainable Communities: Creating a Durable Local Economy. This caught the attention of a number of PeakProsperity.com readers and, at their request, we invited Bruce to speak specifically about the urban revitalization he has helped bring about in Burlington, and what other communities can learn from that model.
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