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by Chris Martenson

At the Casey Research Summit last month, Chris had the opportunity to sit down with longtime precious metals investor and proprietor of 321gold.com, Bob Moriarty.

Right before their conversation, Bob had picked up a local Arizona newspaper and read an AP article titled "US Reliability Questioned Overseas" (the government shutdown was in full swing at this time). It discussed, among other concerns voiced by foreigners, whether continuing to rely on the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is prudent given America's political dysfunction and its debt levels.

Bob Moriarty: Solving Our National Problems Starts With Sound Money
by Chris Martenson

At the Casey Research Summit last month, Chris had the opportunity to sit down with longtime precious metals investor and proprietor of 321gold.com, Bob Moriarty.

Right before their conversation, Bob had picked up a local Arizona newspaper and read an AP article titled "US Reliability Questioned Overseas" (the government shutdown was in full swing at this time). It discussed, among other concerns voiced by foreigners, whether continuing to rely on the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is prudent given America's political dysfunction and its debt levels.

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Identifying the 8 characteristics that signal a system is experiencing diminishing returns
  • The powerful advantages simplification can offer
  • Debt-avoidance as a forward strategy
  • The criticality of creating parallel, self-reliant systems

If you have not yet read Our Era’s Definitive Dynamic: Diminishing Returns, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we surveyed examples of diminishing returns and touched upon the forces that generate devotion to systems beset by diminishing returns. In Part II, we’ll look a little deeper into the dynamics, with an eye on avoiding being ensnared in systems that are doomed by dwindling yields and rising costs.

Characteristics of Diminishing Return Systems

1. Friction. Sources of what I term 'friction' include procedural impedance between dissimilar systems, fraud, inefficiencies, and processes that no longer add value but that are accepted as “the way things work.” (I wrote about systemic friction for Peak Prosperity in 2011: How Much of the U.S. Economy Is Friction?)

Common examples include the proliferating “reward cards” from retailers that fill our wallets and purses with low-value complexity and our absurdly complex income tax system that costs billions of dollars while serving primarily as a conduit for special-interest tax breaks.

2.  “Solutions” that do not address the root problem.  One example is our healthcare system’s haphazard approach to mental health: A great many mentally ill people who fall between the system’s cracks end up being incarcerated, in essence passing the cost and responsibility for mental healthcare to the already-burdened criminal justice system. Imprisoning the mentally ill is clearly a diminishing-return “solution” to our systemic lack of mental health care.

How to Overcome Diminishing Returns
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Identifying the 8 characteristics that signal a system is experiencing diminishing returns
  • The powerful advantages simplification can offer
  • Debt-avoidance as a forward strategy
  • The criticality of creating parallel, self-reliant systems

If you have not yet read Our Era’s Definitive Dynamic: Diminishing Returns, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we surveyed examples of diminishing returns and touched upon the forces that generate devotion to systems beset by diminishing returns. In Part II, we’ll look a little deeper into the dynamics, with an eye on avoiding being ensnared in systems that are doomed by dwindling yields and rising costs.

Characteristics of Diminishing Return Systems

1. Friction. Sources of what I term 'friction' include procedural impedance between dissimilar systems, fraud, inefficiencies, and processes that no longer add value but that are accepted as “the way things work.” (I wrote about systemic friction for Peak Prosperity in 2011: How Much of the U.S. Economy Is Friction?)

Common examples include the proliferating “reward cards” from retailers that fill our wallets and purses with low-value complexity and our absurdly complex income tax system that costs billions of dollars while serving primarily as a conduit for special-interest tax breaks.

2.  “Solutions” that do not address the root problem.  One example is our healthcare system’s haphazard approach to mental health: A great many mentally ill people who fall between the system’s cracks end up being incarcerated, in essence passing the cost and responsibility for mental healthcare to the already-burdened criminal justice system. Imprisoning the mentally ill is clearly a diminishing-return “solution” to our systemic lack of mental health care.

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Why GDP growth is very unlikely to support the rate of credit growth the Fed wants
  • If it can't, what is most likely to happen?
  • Why the current bubble threatens to end in one of the biggest wealth transfers in human history
  • How to increase your odds of being on the right side of that transfer

If you have not yet read Part I: The Fed Can Only Fail, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The (Delusional) Plan: Growth Will Cover Past & Future Debts

Currently, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio stands at around 350% in 2013. This is an historically elevated number, so much so that we really don't have anything in our economic history books to tell us what comes next. Robust economic growth, we suppose, that can reduce that imbalance painlessly.

But looking at the past 220 years of history, we find that the average yearly growth in U.S. GDP has been 3.8%:

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Now, I have some quibbles with the idea that the U.S. will be able to sustain that long-run average of 3.8% over the next 30 years, because debt levels are already crushing growth, as are high oil prices (double whammy!). But let's spot the Fed every advantage here. 

If U.S. GDP grows at 3.8% annually, but credit grows at 8%, that means the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio would balloon to 1,130% by 2043. That's equivalent to someone with a $50,000 salary carrying $57

The Near Future May See One of the Biggest Wealth Transfers in Human History
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Why GDP growth is very unlikely to support the rate of credit growth the Fed wants
  • If it can't, what is most likely to happen?
  • Why the current bubble threatens to end in one of the biggest wealth transfers in human history
  • How to increase your odds of being on the right side of that transfer

If you have not yet read Part I: The Fed Can Only Fail, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The (Delusional) Plan: Growth Will Cover Past & Future Debts

Currently, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio stands at around 350% in 2013. This is an historically elevated number, so much so that we really don't have anything in our economic history books to tell us what comes next. Robust economic growth, we suppose, that can reduce that imbalance painlessly.

But looking at the past 220 years of history, we find that the average yearly growth in U.S. GDP has been 3.8%:

 src=

(Source

Now, I have some quibbles with the idea that the U.S. will be able to sustain that long-run average of 3.8% over the next 30 years, because debt levels are already crushing growth, as are high oil prices (double whammy!). But let's spot the Fed every advantage here. 

If U.S. GDP grows at 3.8% annually, but credit grows at 8%, that means the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio would balloon to 1,130% by 2043. That's equivalent to someone with a $50,000 salary carrying $57

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