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Image | More Services Inflation; Plebe Lives Matter
More Services Inflation; Plebe Lives Matter
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) news was the primary economic release this week; allegedly, inflation dropped -0.08% month over month (m/m), and rose +6.42% year over year (y/y). But, while aggregate CPI (black line) fell fairly briskly, services inflation (red line) ticked higher. Services inflation continues to rise. What categories are pushing services inflation higher?…
More Services Inflation; Plebe Lives Matter
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) news was the primary economic release this week; allegedly, inflation dropped -0.08% month over month (m/m), and rose +6.42% year over year (y/y). But, while aggregate CPI (black line) fell fairly briskly, services inflation (red line) ticked higher. Services inflation continues to rise. What categories are pushing services inflation higher?…
Image | Mixed Data; These Are Our Stories
Mixed Data; These Are Our Stories
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There were two economic reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: +223k month over month (m/m) [prior +256k] (bullish) Durable Goods: New Orders -2.13% m/m, Shipments +0.19% m/m (bearish) My favorite section of payrolls that I use for detecting recession isn’t showing a clear signal of recession just yet; the FRED Series (LNS12032196) titled “working part-time for…
Mixed Data; These Are Our Stories
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There were two economic reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: +223k month over month (m/m) [prior +256k] (bullish) Durable Goods: New Orders -2.13% m/m, Shipments +0.19% m/m (bearish) My favorite section of payrolls that I use for detecting recession isn’t showing a clear signal of recession just yet; the FRED Series (LNS12032196) titled “working part-time for…
Image | Major Recession On The Way
Major Recession On The Way
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

There’s a massive recession on the way that will strike in 2023, of that I am about as certain as I can possibly be. Normally, I keep my options open, and of course, I stand ready to be surprised if a recession doesn’t materialize, but the chances of being wrong here are so low as…
Major Recession On The Way
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

There’s a massive recession on the way that will strike in 2023, of that I am about as certain as I can possibly be. Normally, I keep my options open, and of course, I stand ready to be surprised if a recession doesn’t materialize, but the chances of being wrong here are so low as…
Image | Peak Prosperity Virtual Seminar 2023
Peak Prosperity Virtual Seminar 2023
by AaronMcKeon

The annual Peak Prosperity Virtual Seminar has now concluded, and it was a huge hit. Scroll part way down (below this text, but above the comments) to re-watch (ticket holders) or to purchase your replay. What Was This One About? Our intention is to motivate, inspire, organize your thinking, and planning for the year ahead. The…
Peak Prosperity Virtual Seminar 2023
 by AaronMcKeon

The annual Peak Prosperity Virtual Seminar has now concluded, and it was a huge hit. Scroll part way down (below this text, but above the comments) to re-watch (ticket holders) or to purchase your replay. What Was This One About? Our intention is to motivate, inspire, organize your thinking, and planning for the year ahead. The…
Image | Long-Term Market View; Turbulence and Disclosure Ahead
Long-Term Market View; Turbulence and Disclosure Ahead
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Equities fell 19.44% this year, and -5.90% in December. The December drop (and the “bearish belt hold” candle print) looks quite bearish, but my forecast model isn’t yet convinced. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) margin debt has fallen some 28% from peak, and shows no signs of recovering.  Margin debt and the S&P 500…
Long-Term Market View; Turbulence and Disclosure Ahead
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Equities fell 19.44% this year, and -5.90% in December. The December drop (and the “bearish belt hold” candle print) looks quite bearish, but my forecast model isn’t yet convinced. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) margin debt has fallen some 28% from peak, and shows no signs of recovering.  Margin debt and the S&P 500…
Image | Long-Term Perspective, Crude and the 10-Year Yield
Long-Term Perspective, Crude and the 10-Year Yield
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

This week, I will use monthly charts because they provide a more long-term perspective on what has happened, and may provide clues where things might be headed. A teacher of mine once said, to see the trend better, pull back on the timeframe. In that spirit, this New Year post will try to focus on…
Long-Term Perspective, Crude and the 10-Year Yield
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

This week, I will use monthly charts because they provide a more long-term perspective on what has happened, and may provide clues where things might be headed. A teacher of mine once said, to see the trend better, pull back on the timeframe. In that spirit, this New Year post will try to focus on…
Image | Mining, Crude and The Vaccine Bubble
Mining, Crude and The Vaccine Bubble
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

In contrast to gold’s mostly-sideways move, the miners rallied strongly on the week, up 3.67%.  Silver also did well, climbing +2.67%, making a new closing high. Ratios: GDX:gold +0.72% (bullish), GDXJ:GDX +1.54% (bullish), Gold:Silver ratio -2.64% (bullish). Even though gold barely moved, this was a bullish week overall for PM. I especially like how the…
Mining, Crude and The Vaccine Bubble
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

In contrast to gold’s mostly-sideways move, the miners rallied strongly on the week, up 3.67%.  Silver also did well, climbing +2.67%, making a new closing high. Ratios: GDX:gold +0.72% (bullish), GDXJ:GDX +1.54% (bullish), Gold:Silver ratio -2.64% (bullish). Even though gold barely moved, this was a bullish week overall for PM. I especially like how the…
Image | Mixed Macro Data and The Dollar
Mixed Macro Data and The Dollar
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There were a number of economic reports this week: Personal Income: +0.36% month over month (m/m), prior +0.68% m/m. Still positive, but slowing. Durable Goods: new orders -2.13% m/m, prior +0.735 m/m; topping out. Bearish Median New Home Sales: +7.57 m/m, prior +3.14% m/m. New all time high. Personal Income: +1.3% quarter over quarter (q/q),…
Mixed Macro Data and The Dollar
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There were a number of economic reports this week: Personal Income: +0.36% month over month (m/m), prior +0.68% m/m. Still positive, but slowing. Durable Goods: new orders -2.13% m/m, prior +0.735 m/m; topping out. Bearish Median New Home Sales: +7.57 m/m, prior +3.14% m/m. New all time high. Personal Income: +1.3% quarter over quarter (q/q),…
Image | 2022 Year in Review: All Roads Lead to Ukraine
2022 Year in Review: All Roads Lead to Ukraine
by David Collum

Annually, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. He strikes again in his usually poignant and delightfully acerbic way. As with past years, he selected Peak Prosperity as the site where it is published in full. It is longer than our usual posts, but…
2022 Year in Review: All Roads Lead to Ukraine
 by David Collum

Annually, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. He strikes again in his usually poignant and delightfully acerbic way. As with past years, he selected Peak Prosperity as the site where it is published in full. It is longer than our usual posts, but…
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 Fauci's Private Diary Exposes Stark Contradictions on Lab Leak, Lethality, Lockdowns & Vaccines
Once again I am so grateful and appreciative to Chris (@cmartenson) for sorting through this horrendous Covid deception early on.
This allowed me to avoid the shot myself, self treat with ivermectin, zinc, vitamin-D and quercetin, stop wearing a mask when faced with a COVID positive patient, as well as making post on my facebook ER doctors groups that...
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