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war

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Geopolitical unity is fracturing as countries are forced to compete more
  • LIBOR is signaling a credit emergency in Europe
  • The market is sending signs a major war and/or a major recession may be imminent
  • The last remaining heroes for risk-on capital, the FANG stocks, are quickly becoming villains

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Future Ain't What It Used To Be, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The central banks of the world have failed: colossally, completely and dangerously.  Yes, they will try to rescue the “markets” once again, as they did in 2011 and 2016 when things similarly looked to be falling apart.

The reason they might not be able to succeed this time?

They are out of maneuvering room. 

Nothing will happen if interest rates are clubbed back down a percent or two.  To do that, though, would require the same sort of lock-step coordination as prior times.  The ECB, BoJ and Fed would all have to operate seamlessly again. 

The most immediate of my concerns, even more than the tech-wreck that began a few weeks ago, is the rise in the LIBOR interest rate.  Why?  Because trouble always moves from the outside in.

Let’s do the math  With $350 trillion worth of assets tied to LIBOR, that means each 1% rise in the LIBOR rate translates into $3.5 trillion dollars of increased interest costs.

LIBOR is now at its highest rate since 2009, and it's spiking for reasons nobody can fully explain. In my mind, higher LIBOR means that there’s less trust and/or liquidity in the system.  It also means borrowing costs are heading up for…

Everything Is Suddenly Deteriorating, Fast
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Geopolitical unity is fracturing as countries are forced to compete more
  • LIBOR is signaling a credit emergency in Europe
  • The market is sending signs a major war and/or a major recession may be imminent
  • The last remaining heroes for risk-on capital, the FANG stocks, are quickly becoming villains

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Future Ain't What It Used To Be, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The central banks of the world have failed: colossally, completely and dangerously.  Yes, they will try to rescue the “markets” once again, as they did in 2011 and 2016 when things similarly looked to be falling apart.

The reason they might not be able to succeed this time?

They are out of maneuvering room. 

Nothing will happen if interest rates are clubbed back down a percent or two.  To do that, though, would require the same sort of lock-step coordination as prior times.  The ECB, BoJ and Fed would all have to operate seamlessly again. 

The most immediate of my concerns, even more than the tech-wreck that began a few weeks ago, is the rise in the LIBOR interest rate.  Why?  Because trouble always moves from the outside in.

Let’s do the math  With $350 trillion worth of assets tied to LIBOR, that means each 1% rise in the LIBOR rate translates into $3.5 trillion dollars of increased interest costs.

LIBOR is now at its highest rate since 2009, and it's spiking for reasons nobody can fully explain. In my mind, higher LIBOR means that there’s less trust and/or liquidity in the system.  It also means borrowing costs are heading up for…

by Chris Martenson

Following up on our recent warning about the situation in Syria, Chris sits down this week for a conversation with The Saker, who writes extensively on geo-political and military matters. The Saker (a nom-de-plume), is a former intelligence expert with professional and personal insights into Russia and the Middle East.

He shares our deep concern for the dangerously misdirected current state of US foreign and military policy, as well as the potentially lethal repercussions these threaten to have in the powderkeg that is Syria.

In this week's podcast, The Saker provides an excellent distillation of the complex forces in play in Syria — as well as in the brewing friction between the US and Russia — and why the risk of nuclear war has now grown higher than it has been in decades.

The Saker: The Syrian Powderkeg
by Chris Martenson

Following up on our recent warning about the situation in Syria, Chris sits down this week for a conversation with The Saker, who writes extensively on geo-political and military matters. The Saker (a nom-de-plume), is a former intelligence expert with professional and personal insights into Russia and the Middle East.

He shares our deep concern for the dangerously misdirected current state of US foreign and military policy, as well as the potentially lethal repercussions these threaten to have in the powderkeg that is Syria.

In this week's podcast, The Saker provides an excellent distillation of the complex forces in play in Syria — as well as in the brewing friction between the US and Russia — and why the risk of nuclear war has now grown higher than it has been in decades.

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