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Image | Negative Payrolls Fuel Recession Fears Amid Risk-Off Moves and Dollar Rally
Negative Payrolls Fuel Recession Fears Amid Risk-Off Moves and Dollar Rally
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by davefairtex

Negative payrolls signal deepening recession fears, sparking risk-off selling in bonds and equities while the dollar surges on global capital flight.
Negative Payrolls Fuel Recession Fears Amid Risk-Off Moves and Dollar Rally
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Negative payrolls signal deepening recession fears, sparking risk-off selling in bonds and equities while the dollar surges on global capital flight.
Image | Risk-Off: Metals, Energy, Treasury Bonds, Equities, and Junk Debt
Risk-Off: Metals, Energy, Treasury Bonds, Equities, and Junk Debt
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

In terms of market moves, adding it all up: metals (risk-off), energy (mostly recessionary), treasury bonds (risk-off), crappy debt (risk on), equities (risk-off), and blessed bitcoin (risk-off) = seems like risk off to me. Consumer Economy Personal Income (PI); 25.346T +221.9B, (+0.88% m/m) 2024-Q4 GDP (GDP); 29.720T +344.7B (+1.16% q/q) Fed GDP Prediction (GDPNOW); -1.48%…
Risk-Off: Metals, Energy, Treasury Bonds, Equities, and Junk Debt
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

In terms of market moves, adding it all up: metals (risk-off), energy (mostly recessionary), treasury bonds (risk-off), crappy debt (risk on), equities (risk-off), and blessed bitcoin (risk-off) = seems like risk off to me. Consumer Economy Personal Income (PI); 25.346T +221.9B, (+0.88% m/m) 2024-Q4 GDP (GDP); 29.720T +344.7B (+1.16% q/q) Fed GDP Prediction (GDPNOW); -1.48%…
Image | Dave’s End-of-Year Perspectives
Dave’s End-of-Year Perspectives
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by davefairtex

Near term: recession. Next Month: Drama! Right now: It’s the end of 2024, so I figured I should provide some market context for the last 4 years of the Zients et al (Senile-Joe-Figurehead) administration.
Dave’s End-of-Year Perspectives
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Near term: recession. Next Month: Drama! Right now: It’s the end of 2024, so I figured I should provide some market context for the last 4 years of the Zients et al (Senile-Joe-Figurehead) administration.
Image | US Treasury Rates Plunge, Good News in Disability, and They Need War
US Treasury Rates Plunge, Good News in Disability, and They Need War
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by davefairtex

I think this is just the start.  As moves get more extreme, they will eventually break any institution that is crazy enough to be leveraged-short-risk and/or you’ve loaned a ton of money on a New York commercial building which now has a 60% vacancy rate and whose value has dropped by 97%.  I predict that lots of institutions, used to trading in placid markets, will blow up during the upcoming period.
US Treasury Rates Plunge, Good News in Disability, and They Need War
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

I think this is just the start.  As moves get more extreme, they will eventually break any institution that is crazy enough to be leveraged-short-risk and/or you’ve loaned a ton of money on a New York commercial building which now has a 60% vacancy rate and whose value has dropped by 97%.  I predict that lots of institutions, used to trading in placid markets, will blow up during the upcoming period.
Image | More Recession and We’re in the Garbage Time of History
More Recession and We’re in the Garbage Time of History
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by davefairtex

My sense is that we’re in an inflationary-recession right now. What’s the reaction of the “market” going to be? With VP Cackles set to be appointed Primary Winner by “our” Democracy, I suspect “they” will work hard to restrain the market effects – at least for now.   “We are doing so great” (cackle cackle) “unburdened by what has come before.”
More Recession and We’re in the Garbage Time of History
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

My sense is that we’re in an inflationary-recession right now. What’s the reaction of the “market” going to be? With VP Cackles set to be appointed Primary Winner by “our” Democracy, I suspect “they” will work hard to restrain the market effects – at least for now.   “We are doing so great” (cackle cackle) “unburdened by what has come before.”
Image | Pivots, Recessions, and Covid-Zero
Pivots, Recessions, and Covid-Zero
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Two things happened in the markets this week: The Fed Pivot What’s a Recession Anyway? First, the Pivot. Which hasn’t happened, insofar as I can see, but the markets appear to believe that the Fed has “pivoted” – setting up to raise rates less enthusiastically than previously thought. Listening to the Federal Open Market Committee…
Pivots, Recessions, and Covid-Zero
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Two things happened in the markets this week: The Fed Pivot What’s a Recession Anyway? First, the Pivot. Which hasn’t happened, insofar as I can see, but the markets appear to believe that the Fed has “pivoted” – setting up to raise rates less enthusiastically than previously thought. Listening to the Federal Open Market Committee…
Image | Has A Silent Coup Already Happened?
Has A Silent Coup Already Happened?
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

It’s official. Dr. Birx has confirmed that her decisions about U.S. lockdowns were based on what the Chinese were telling us. Their propaganda. Not science. Not data. Let that sink in for a minute. Your income. Your business. Your children’s health. Your mental well-being. The health of a nation and its economy. Based on Chinese…
Has A Silent Coup Already Happened?
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

It’s official. Dr. Birx has confirmed that her decisions about U.S. lockdowns were based on what the Chinese were telling us. Their propaganda. Not science. Not data. Let that sink in for a minute. Your income. Your business. Your children’s health. Your mental well-being. The health of a nation and its economy. Based on Chinese…
Image | “Covid-19: The Great Reset” Book Review and Commentary
“Covid-19: The Great Reset” Book Review and Commentary
 PREVIEW
by Mike from Jersey

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is a collective of major corporations, billionaires, politicians, academics and influence makers. That is quite a collection of power. They push an agenda. Their mottos include “Build Back Better” and “The Great Reset” and a “New World Order.” These mottos parroted by people like Joe Biden, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron,…
“Covid-19: The Great Reset” Book Review and Commentary
 PREVIEW by Mike from Jersey

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is a collective of major corporations, billionaires, politicians, academics and influence makers. That is quite a collection of power. They push an agenda. Their mottos include “Build Back Better” and “The Great Reset” and a “New World Order.” These mottos parroted by people like Joe Biden, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron,…
Image | Credit Contraction; Recession Indicators Grow
Credit Contraction; Recession Indicators Grow
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

First, I have some bad news. My data provider decided to stop shipping futures data to me (it was a free service which I’ve used for over five years) – the last updated value was Thursday at end of day. So, my charts for all futures contracts in this report end on Thursday. Now, I…
Credit Contraction; Recession Indicators Grow
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

First, I have some bad news. My data provider decided to stop shipping futures data to me (it was a free service which I’ve used for over five years) – the last updated value was Thursday at end of day. So, my charts for all futures contracts in this report end on Thursday. Now, I…
Image | The Planned Crisis Continues To Unfold
The Planned Crisis Continues To Unfold
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Today, we’re going back over The Great Reset. I initially produced this video back in November of 2020 and it’s worth revisiting today. Why? Because it’s hard to get our hearts and minds around the level of ignorance or depravity, or both, that the WEF/Davos crowd are exhibiting. They really are either as dense or…
The Planned Crisis Continues To Unfold
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Today, we’re going back over The Great Reset. I initially produced this video back in November of 2020 and it’s worth revisiting today. Why? Because it’s hard to get our hearts and minds around the level of ignorance or depravity, or both, that the WEF/Davos crowd are exhibiting. They really are either as dense or…
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