Consumer Economy
- Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS) 158.5M -92.0K (-0.06% m/m) (prior +0.08% m/m)
- Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES) 15.8M +932.0K (+6.29% m/m) (prior -7.43% m/m)
- Retail Sales (RSAFS) 733.5B -1.1B (-0.16% m/m) (prior -0.00% m/m)
Retail Sales [for January] shrank – given this is a dollar amount, that’s recessionary – if it continues. Year over year, retail sales rose by 3.2%. That’s not keeping up with actual inflation.
Auto/light truck sales bounced up off a 3-year low, which is mildly positive. At the same time, heavy truck sales have resumed their decline. That’s recessionary.
Headline payroll numbers looked terrible, actually declining. I took a snapshot before updating PAYEMS this week. The latest update-change [and revisions] were:
- Dec 2025: -17k [revised down -65k]
- Jan 2026: 126k [revised down -69k]
- Feb 2026: -92k [not yet revised]
This trend continues to look recessionary to me – especially with the (likely) 65-70k revision appearing next month. I agree with Ed Dowd:
We are in a recession and the NBER will call it a year later like they did in 2008 callings the recession start as 12/2007. [Mar 7]
(source – DowdEdward)
The working-part-time indicators both fell, which is positive news.
Native-born got more jobs while foreign-born lost them, but you can see from the chart below that the increase was fairly minor. Looks like any serious deportations remain on hold.
- Native-Born (LNU02073413) 130.99M +877K +0.67%
- Foreign-Born (LNU02073395) 31.17M -394K -1.25%
- CNP With a Disability (LNU00074597) 35.868M -724k -1.98%
- CLF With a Disability (LNU01074597) 8.732M -256k -2.85%
- EMP With a Disability (LNU02074597) 8.032M -227k -2.75%
- NILF With a Disability (LNU05074597) 27.136M -467k -1.69%
CNP (civilian non-institutionalized population) “with a disability” allegedly dropped by 724k to 35.87M. I say allegedly because when I look at last month’s chart [dated Feb 14], it shows a decline of 232k to 35.97M.
- Jan Disability: 35.97M [change from Dec: -232k]
- Feb Disability: 35.87M [change from Jan: -724k]
Math problem: how can you subtract 724k from Jan=35.97M and come up with Feb=35.87M?
Unless…”With a Disability” for Jan was revised higher, under the covers, by 622k to 36.59M.
Looks like “they” are hiding With a Disability increases, just like they are with nonfarm payrolls declines. So we cannot “celebrate” a decline in disability until 3 months pass. I predict this month’s “decline” will be partially erased next month.
BLS gonna BLS.
Credit & Rates
- Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR) 19.25T -9.2B (-0.05% w/w)
by jenz 
