page-loading-spinner

Inflation

Image | FerFAL: Here’s What It Looks Like When Your Country’s Economy Collapses
FerFAL: Here’s What It Looks Like When Your Country’s Economy Collapses
by Chris Martenson

Argentina is a country re-entering crisis territory it knows too well. The country has defaulted on its sovereign debt three times in the past 32 years, and looks poised to do so again soon.

Its currency, the peso, devalued by more than 20% in January alone. Inflation is currently running at 25%. Argentina's budget deficit is exploding and, based on credit default swap rates, the market is placing an 85% chance of a sovereign default within the next five years.

Want to know what it's like living through a currency collapse? Argentina is providing us with a real-time window.

So, we've invited Fernando "FerFAL" Aquirre back onto the program to provide commentary on the events on the ground there. What is life like right now for the average Argentinian?

FerFAL: Here’s What It Looks Like When Your Country’s Economy Collapses
 by Chris Martenson

Argentina is a country re-entering crisis territory it knows too well. The country has defaulted on its sovereign debt three times in the past 32 years, and looks poised to do so again soon.

Its currency, the peso, devalued by more than 20% in January alone. Inflation is currently running at 25%. Argentina's budget deficit is exploding and, based on credit default swap rates, the market is placing an 85% chance of a sovereign default within the next five years.

Want to know what it's like living through a currency collapse? Argentina is providing us with a real-time window.

So, we've invited Fernando "FerFAL" Aquirre back onto the program to provide commentary on the events on the ground there. What is life like right now for the average Argentinian?

Image | Why Social & Environmental Imbalances Are Becoming the Biggest Risks
Why Social & Environmental Imbalances Are Becoming the Biggest Risks
 PREVIEW
by Gregor Macdonald

Executive Summary

  • The growing risk of disinflation
  • Why instability in the U.S. is accelerating
  • The danger of social rifts emerging in the near future between economic classes
  • Why environmental constraints and social instability may trump energy issues going forward

If you have not yet read What Happened to the Future?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

If this is the case, it echoes the realization now dawning on economists in the U.S. that an acceleration in the economy, which many expected, is simply not going to arrive. As was discussed in previous essays, OECD GDP growth appears to be converging once again at a level below 2.00%. The U.S. is on track to achieve only 1.6% GDP growth this year. This is a primary reason why inflation, again – outside of natural resources – has still not broken out, or even appeared. Moreover, the U.S. and the OECD could once again be on the verge of disinflation.

One notable and important piece of the disinflation puzzle is the continued growth in inequality. As income growth narrows to a tiny vanishing point among workers, it’s become increasingly difficult to mount economic growth across many industries. Demand for goods from the 1% is robust. Demand from the rest of the populace continues to dwindle. It may be hard to believe, but policy makers, politicians, and – gasp! – even economists and financiers used to be deeply concerned about wealth inequality. Today, it’s as if enough time has passed for an entire generation to forget the destructive structural damage that long-term inequality can wreak on an economy.

For those of you who remember, one of the more severe cases of wealth inequality for many decades was the country of Brazil. Tellingly, it was not until Brazil elected a reformer, Lula, that the country left behind its days of boom-and-bust, debt crises, inflation, and general instability and embarked on its current path as a more balanced, sustainable economy. Coincidence? Not likely.

But what’s really scary is…

Why Social & Environmental Imbalances Are Becoming the Biggest Risks
 PREVIEW by Gregor Macdonald

Executive Summary

  • The growing risk of disinflation
  • Why instability in the U.S. is accelerating
  • The danger of social rifts emerging in the near future between economic classes
  • Why environmental constraints and social instability may trump energy issues going forward

If you have not yet read What Happened to the Future?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

If this is the case, it echoes the realization now dawning on economists in the U.S. that an acceleration in the economy, which many expected, is simply not going to arrive. As was discussed in previous essays, OECD GDP growth appears to be converging once again at a level below 2.00%. The U.S. is on track to achieve only 1.6% GDP growth this year. This is a primary reason why inflation, again – outside of natural resources – has still not broken out, or even appeared. Moreover, the U.S. and the OECD could once again be on the verge of disinflation.

One notable and important piece of the disinflation puzzle is the continued growth in inequality. As income growth narrows to a tiny vanishing point among workers, it’s become increasingly difficult to mount economic growth across many industries. Demand for goods from the 1% is robust. Demand from the rest of the populace continues to dwindle. It may be hard to believe, but policy makers, politicians, and – gasp! – even economists and financiers used to be deeply concerned about wealth inequality. Today, it’s as if enough time has passed for an entire generation to forget the destructive structural damage that long-term inequality can wreak on an economy.

For those of you who remember, one of the more severe cases of wealth inequality for many decades was the country of Brazil. Tellingly, it was not until Brazil elected a reformer, Lula, that the country left behind its days of boom-and-bust, debt crises, inflation, and general instability and embarked on its current path as a more balanced, sustainable economy. Coincidence? Not likely.

But what’s really scary is…

Image | Alasdair Macleod: Currency Crisis Dead Ahead
Alasdair Macleod: Currency Crisis Dead Ahead
by Chris Martenson

This week's podcast interview introduces a new monetary measurement developed by Alasdair Macleod: the 'Fiat Quantity of Money', or FMQ. Alasdair explains how FMQ is derived, as well as what it can tell us about the true levels of fiat money supply. In the case of the dollar, it reveals that levels are far above what is commonly appreciated – so far, in fact, that a currency crisis could arrive sooner than even many dollar bears expect.
Alasdair Macleod: Currency Crisis Dead Ahead
 by Chris Martenson

This week's podcast interview introduces a new monetary measurement developed by Alasdair Macleod: the 'Fiat Quantity of Money', or FMQ. Alasdair explains how FMQ is derived, as well as what it can tell us about the true levels of fiat money supply. In the case of the dollar, it reveals that levels are far above what is commonly appreciated – so far, in fact, that a currency crisis could arrive sooner than even many dollar bears expect.
Image | Bud Conrad: The Bursting of the Bond Bubble Is Now Upon Us
Bud Conrad: The Bursting of the Bond Bubble Is Now Upon Us
by Chris Martenson

At the recent Casey Research conference in Tucson, AZ, Casey chief economist Bud Conrad stepped up to the podium, reached into his pocket, and pulled out a balloon, which he proceeded to inflate. As it grew, it become clear the word "BONDS" was written across it. For dramatic effect, Bud continued inflating the balloon until it popped. He then looked at the audience and said, "I hope I'm making a point."
Bud Conrad: The Bursting of the Bond Bubble Is Now Upon Us
 by Chris Martenson

At the recent Casey Research conference in Tucson, AZ, Casey chief economist Bud Conrad stepped up to the podium, reached into his pocket, and pulled out a balloon, which he proceeded to inflate. As it grew, it become clear the word "BONDS" was written across it. For dramatic effect, Bud continued inflating the balloon until it popped. He then looked at the audience and said, "I hope I'm making a point."
Image | Why We All Lose If the Fed Wins
Why We All Lose If the Fed Wins
by Chris Martenson

If we hold the view that humans are behaving unsustainably in terms of any of the 'three Es' – the economy, energy, or the environment – then any rapid resumption of a paradigm of exponential growth in our consumption of natural resources – or in our growth of debt over income – simply takes us more quickly to the bitter end of this story.
Why We All Lose If the Fed Wins
 by Chris Martenson

If we hold the view that humans are behaving unsustainably in terms of any of the 'three Es' – the economy, energy, or the environment – then any rapid resumption of a paradigm of exponential growth in our consumption of natural resources – or in our growth of debt over income – simply takes us more quickly to the bitter end of this story.
Image | How You Can Limit Your Exposure to the Fed’s Financial Interference
How You Can Limit Your Exposure to the Fed’s Financial Interference
 PREVIEW
by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Understanding the Fed's ability to impact (or not) health & education, pensions, and inflation
  • What you can do to insulate yourself from the impacts of the Fed's financial interference
    • Mindset
    • Major expenses
    • Debt
    • Resilience
    • Income

If you have not yet read Part I: The Fed Matters Much Less Than You Think, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we found that the supposedly omniscient Federal Reserve is irrelevant to the engine of real wealth creation (innovation) and actively inhibits the allocation of capital and labor to innovation by incentivizing speculation and malinvestment.

In Part II, we’ll look at what else matters that the Fed either negatively influences or does not control, as well as specific actions we can take as individuals to insulate ourselves from the collateral damage caused by misguided central bank policies.

Health and Education

We all know health and education are vital to individuals and the economy, and like everything else that matters, the Fed’s influence is limited to financial repression of interest rates that enables the Federal government to avoid the sort of healthy fiscal discipline that higher rates would demand. In other words, the Fed has widened the moat around government spending, protecting it from the hard choices that would accompany massive deficits and bond issuance in a free-market economy.

Public and Private Pensions

By at least one measure, the Fed’s repression of interest rates (designed to recapitalize the banks at no direct cost to the Fed or government) has cost savers $10.8 trillion in lost income. Since the majority of savings in the U.S. are in public and private pension plans, 401Ks, and IRAs (individual retirement accounts), the Fed’s repression of interest rates has pushed these income-security savings into risky speculative asset bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate, and critically undermined the financial health of pensions by radically reducing their low-risk, safe returns.

How You Can Limit Your Exposure to the Fed’s Financial Interference
 PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Understanding the Fed's ability to impact (or not) health & education, pensions, and inflation
  • What you can do to insulate yourself from the impacts of the Fed's financial interference
    • Mindset
    • Major expenses
    • Debt
    • Resilience
    • Income

If you have not yet read Part I: The Fed Matters Much Less Than You Think, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we found that the supposedly omniscient Federal Reserve is irrelevant to the engine of real wealth creation (innovation) and actively inhibits the allocation of capital and labor to innovation by incentivizing speculation and malinvestment.

In Part II, we’ll look at what else matters that the Fed either negatively influences or does not control, as well as specific actions we can take as individuals to insulate ourselves from the collateral damage caused by misguided central bank policies.

Health and Education

We all know health and education are vital to individuals and the economy, and like everything else that matters, the Fed’s influence is limited to financial repression of interest rates that enables the Federal government to avoid the sort of healthy fiscal discipline that higher rates would demand. In other words, the Fed has widened the moat around government spending, protecting it from the hard choices that would accompany massive deficits and bond issuance in a free-market economy.

Public and Private Pensions

By at least one measure, the Fed’s repression of interest rates (designed to recapitalize the banks at no direct cost to the Fed or government) has cost savers $10.8 trillion in lost income. Since the majority of savings in the U.S. are in public and private pension plans, 401Ks, and IRAs (individual retirement accounts), the Fed’s repression of interest rates has pushed these income-security savings into risky speculative asset bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate, and critically undermined the financial health of pensions by radically reducing their low-risk, safe returns.

Image | Get Ready for Rising Commodity Prices
Get Ready for Rising Commodity Prices
by charleshughsmith

The human mind seeks a narrative explanation of events, a story that makes sense of the swirl of life’s interactions.

The simpler the story, the easier it is to understand. Thus the simple stories are the most attractive to us.

But conspiracies and power groups do not always provide comprehensive explanations for what we observe.
Get Ready for Rising Commodity Prices
 by charleshughsmith

The human mind seeks a narrative explanation of events, a story that makes sense of the swirl of life’s interactions.

The simpler the story, the easier it is to understand. Thus the simple stories are the most attractive to us.

But conspiracies and power groups do not always provide comprehensive explanations for what we observe.
Image | Protect Your Wealth in Advance of the Bubble’s Bursting
Protect Your Wealth in Advance of the Bubble’s Bursting
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Corporate junk bonds: All-time highs
  • Equities: All-time highs in Germany and U.S.
  • Other equities: Spiking upwards (Japan, Greece, Australia)
  • Margin Debt: Second highest on record
  • Excuses: Consistent with bubble territory
  • Timing: When reality will likely express itself

If you have not yet read Part I:  Four Signs That We're Back in Dangerous Bubble Territory, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we discussed four signs that we are in bubble territory – in both stocks and bonds – plus all of the usual rationalizations that accompany bubbles. In truth, there are many more signs which we'll discuss further here, and I want to go deeper into the data exploring the warning signs in the equity and bond markets.

I want to spend time cataloging and explaining my reasoning because when bubbles burst, it's traumatic for everyone, but especially those that aren't prepared.

Further, these bubbles are so large that it's useful to employ historical analogues to weigh them against and parse for clues as to just how bad developments could get.

The Big Picture

What we do at Peak Prosperity is track the big picture. We look at the macro risks and trends, and try to figure out what's coming next. Over the long haul. we have very little doubt that several decades of debt accumulation partnered with structurally higher oil prices will result in anything other than reduced standards of living for most people.

And that’s if everything goes smoothly.

At the other end of the spectrum lies the potential for currency, political, and fiscal crises, the likes of which have never been seen before, given the global nature of the situation.

Leaving oil prices aside for the moment, in purely economic terms, living beyond one’s means now necessitates living below one’s means later on. Whether that period of negative adjustment is the same length and depth, shorter and deeper, or longer and shallower is open to question. But I'm leaning towards ‘shorter and deeper’ because history shows that bubbles tend to burst more rapidly than they form.

That is, we could view this as a bubble in financial assets, particularly credit (debt), but we could just as easily view it as a bubble in living standards. We overdid things and now it's just a question of figuring out who is going to eat the losses. Historically, that answer has always been 'the little people,' but today we have dropped such disparaging terms in favor of the more politically palatable 'taxpayers.'

To understand the current predicament, the most important chart to look at is the ratio of total national debt to GDP (debt-to-income)…

Protect Your Wealth in Advance of the Bubble’s Bursting
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Corporate junk bonds: All-time highs
  • Equities: All-time highs in Germany and U.S.
  • Other equities: Spiking upwards (Japan, Greece, Australia)
  • Margin Debt: Second highest on record
  • Excuses: Consistent with bubble territory
  • Timing: When reality will likely express itself

If you have not yet read Part I:  Four Signs That We're Back in Dangerous Bubble Territory, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we discussed four signs that we are in bubble territory – in both stocks and bonds – plus all of the usual rationalizations that accompany bubbles. In truth, there are many more signs which we'll discuss further here, and I want to go deeper into the data exploring the warning signs in the equity and bond markets.

I want to spend time cataloging and explaining my reasoning because when bubbles burst, it's traumatic for everyone, but especially those that aren't prepared.

Further, these bubbles are so large that it's useful to employ historical analogues to weigh them against and parse for clues as to just how bad developments could get.

The Big Picture

What we do at Peak Prosperity is track the big picture. We look at the macro risks and trends, and try to figure out what's coming next. Over the long haul. we have very little doubt that several decades of debt accumulation partnered with structurally higher oil prices will result in anything other than reduced standards of living for most people.

And that’s if everything goes smoothly.

At the other end of the spectrum lies the potential for currency, political, and fiscal crises, the likes of which have never been seen before, given the global nature of the situation.

Leaving oil prices aside for the moment, in purely economic terms, living beyond one’s means now necessitates living below one’s means later on. Whether that period of negative adjustment is the same length and depth, shorter and deeper, or longer and shallower is open to question. But I'm leaning towards ‘shorter and deeper’ because history shows that bubbles tend to burst more rapidly than they form.

That is, we could view this as a bubble in financial assets, particularly credit (debt), but we could just as easily view it as a bubble in living standards. We overdid things and now it's just a question of figuring out who is going to eat the losses. Historically, that answer has always been 'the little people,' but today we have dropped such disparaging terms in favor of the more politically palatable 'taxpayers.'

To understand the current predicament, the most important chart to look at is the ratio of total national debt to GDP (debt-to-income)…

Image | Off the Cuff: The Age of Delusion
Off the Cuff: The Age of Delusion
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Fuzzy Fed Math
    • Housing-cost methodology understates true inflation
  • China's Gold Hunger
    • Vacuuming up 50% of total world production
  • Market Madness
    • Any news – good, bad, or worse – drives stock prices higher
Off the Cuff: The Age of Delusion
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Fuzzy Fed Math
    • Housing-cost methodology understates true inflation
  • China's Gold Hunger
    • Vacuuming up 50% of total world production
  • Market Madness
    • Any news – good, bad, or worse – drives stock prices higher
Image | Marking the 4-Year Reflationary Rally: How Much Better Off Are We Really?
Marking the 4-Year Reflationary Rally: How Much Better Off Are We Really?
by Gregor Macdonald

The U.S. stock market rally has recently passed its fourth anniversary after the terrifying lows of March 9, 2009.

During that time, massive and unconventional reflationary policy from the Federal Reserve has managed to lift the S&P 500 by nearly 70%. But perhaps even more improbably, it has finally (?) built a floor under U.S. residential real estate prices.
Marking the 4-Year Reflationary Rally: How Much Better Off Are We Really?
 by Gregor Macdonald

The U.S. stock market rally has recently passed its fourth anniversary after the terrifying lows of March 9, 2009.

During that time, massive and unconventional reflationary policy from the Federal Reserve has managed to lift the S&P 500 by nearly 70%. But perhaps even more improbably, it has finally (?) built a floor under U.S. residential real estate prices.
Total 156 items

Community

Top Conversation

 Prep Now for the Coming Winter Challenges
I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about the needs and sustainability of our family. We have six young children, our oldest just turned 12 and our youngest just turned 3 months old. I love the considerations that the article had above and thought I would add a few things that I have considered for our situation. My...
Image | hgrootveldgmail-com by hgrootveldgmail-com
36 95
View the conversation
Image | GoldCore

GoldCore

Learn more
Image | Gold Newsletter

Gold Newsletter

Learn more