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Image | The New Game-Changers for Gold & Silver
The New Game-Changers for Gold & Silver
 PREVIEW
by Adam Taggart

Executive Summary

  • Large players (and likely price manipulators) now have incentive for precious metals prices to rise
  • Investor demand for bullion remains at record highs
  • Competition for bullion from the East continues to heat up
  • Central banks buy more bullion as Comex inventories deplete
  • The key signs to know when it will be time to sell your gold & silver

If you have not yet read Part I: Is Gold at a Turning Point? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Manipulation

Much has been written across the Web (including here at PeakProsperity.com) about whether or not the precious metals markets are manipulated in price by big players (major multi-national banks such as JP Morgan). Without delving into the many arguments on both the pro and con sides, Chris and I are of the opinion that sufficient data exists to convince a reasonable observer that price manipulation in the PM markets is indeed real, or, at the very least, highly probable. (For those remaining doubters out there, have a look at the evidence here, here, and here, and let us know if you have a rational, non-manipulative explanation.)

One of the most glaring signs of likely manipulation has been the massive short positions that a small number of large banks (JP Morgan being the most prominent among them) have held for many years, particularly in the silver market [measure positions as % of world silver production]. And not only were these unlimited positions allowed, but this cabal of banks was allowed to naked-sell PMs short (i.e., sell metal without actually owning it first). On the other side of the coin, the long side, position limits were enforced, and there was no similar ability to buy more metal than one could pay for. This imbalance of rules certainly provides the mechanism by which PM prices could be artificially jockeyed more easily to the downside. In this context, a decline from the high $40s to the low $20s looks more understandable.

Well, a very important part of this story has just shifted. The CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) publishes a monthly report illustrating the positions taken in Comex Futures Contracts

After nearly ten years of being net short in Comex gold futures, U.S. banks have been recently decreasing those short positions, and – for the first time since 2004 (with the exception of a single month in 2008) – they have flipped to become net long gold in May (see bottom chart below)…

The New Game-Changers for Gold & Silver
 PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

Executive Summary

  • Large players (and likely price manipulators) now have incentive for precious metals prices to rise
  • Investor demand for bullion remains at record highs
  • Competition for bullion from the East continues to heat up
  • Central banks buy more bullion as Comex inventories deplete
  • The key signs to know when it will be time to sell your gold & silver

If you have not yet read Part I: Is Gold at a Turning Point? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Manipulation

Much has been written across the Web (including here at PeakProsperity.com) about whether or not the precious metals markets are manipulated in price by big players (major multi-national banks such as JP Morgan). Without delving into the many arguments on both the pro and con sides, Chris and I are of the opinion that sufficient data exists to convince a reasonable observer that price manipulation in the PM markets is indeed real, or, at the very least, highly probable. (For those remaining doubters out there, have a look at the evidence here, here, and here, and let us know if you have a rational, non-manipulative explanation.)

One of the most glaring signs of likely manipulation has been the massive short positions that a small number of large banks (JP Morgan being the most prominent among them) have held for many years, particularly in the silver market [measure positions as % of world silver production]. And not only were these unlimited positions allowed, but this cabal of banks was allowed to naked-sell PMs short (i.e., sell metal without actually owning it first). On the other side of the coin, the long side, position limits were enforced, and there was no similar ability to buy more metal than one could pay for. This imbalance of rules certainly provides the mechanism by which PM prices could be artificially jockeyed more easily to the downside. In this context, a decline from the high $40s to the low $20s looks more understandable.

Well, a very important part of this story has just shifted. The CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) publishes a monthly report illustrating the positions taken in Comex Futures Contracts

After nearly ten years of being net short in Comex gold futures, U.S. banks have been recently decreasing those short positions, and – for the first time since 2004 (with the exception of a single month in 2008) – they have flipped to become net long gold in May (see bottom chart below)…

Image | Is Gold at a Turning Point?
Is Gold at a Turning Point?
by Adam Taggart

There's no way to sugarcoat the dismal performance of the precious metals in recent months. But a revisitation of the reasons for owning them reveals no cracks in the underlying thesis for doing so.

In fact, there are a number of new compelling developments arguing that the long heartbreak for gold and silver holders will soon be over.
Is Gold at a Turning Point?
 by Adam Taggart

There's no way to sugarcoat the dismal performance of the precious metals in recent months. But a revisitation of the reasons for owning them reveals no cracks in the underlying thesis for doing so.

In fact, there are a number of new compelling developments arguing that the long heartbreak for gold and silver holders will soon be over.
Image | Four Signs That We’re Back in Dangerous Bubble Territory
Four Signs That We’re Back in Dangerous Bubble Territory
by Chris Martenson

As the global equity and bond markets grind ever higher, abundant signs exist that we are once again living through an asset bubble – or rather a whole series of bubbles in a variety of markets. This makes this period quite interesting, but also quite dangerous.

With equity and bond markets at or near all-time record highs, with all financial assets consistently shrugging off bad – or worse – news as the riskiest of assets continue to find consistent upward bids, we find ourselves in familiar and bubbly territory.
Four Signs That We’re Back in Dangerous Bubble Territory
 by Chris Martenson

As the global equity and bond markets grind ever higher, abundant signs exist that we are once again living through an asset bubble – or rather a whole series of bubbles in a variety of markets. This makes this period quite interesting, but also quite dangerous.

With equity and bond markets at or near all-time record highs, with all financial assets consistently shrugging off bad – or worse – news as the riskiest of assets continue to find consistent upward bids, we find ourselves in familiar and bubbly territory.
Image | Frustrated & Bored, Yet Happy
Frustrated & Bored, Yet Happy
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

I am happy, bored, and frustrated all at the same time. 

My frustration is one I share with everyone who believes that fundamentals (a.k.a. 'reality') matter.  This frustration is fueled by the endlessly-propped financial markets in which good news and bad news are both good and worse news seems to be even better.  No matter what the latest headline might say, it seems to ignite a new round of buying of stocks, bonds, and anything else that the central banks deem worthy of dressing up. 
Frustrated & Bored, Yet Happy
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

I am happy, bored, and frustrated all at the same time. 

My frustration is one I share with everyone who believes that fundamentals (a.k.a. 'reality') matter.  This frustration is fueled by the endlessly-propped financial markets in which good news and bad news are both good and worse news seems to be even better.  No matter what the latest headline might say, it seems to ignite a new round of buying of stocks, bonds, and anything else that the central banks deem worthy of dressing up. 
Image | Bill Fleckenstein: Hold Tight To Your Gold
Bill Fleckenstein: Hold Tight To Your Gold
by Chris Martenson

 

The bond market is an accident waiting to happen.
 

When the bond market finally does crack, it is going to be one epic nightmare that is going to make 2008 and 2009 seem like a picnic. It will be a different kind of a crisis; but it will be an enormous crisis. These people that are bullish about stocks and bonds and the bond market, they do not understand anything.
Bill Fleckenstein: Hold Tight To Your Gold
 by Chris Martenson

 

The bond market is an accident waiting to happen.
 

When the bond market finally does crack, it is going to be one epic nightmare that is going to make 2008 and 2009 seem like a picnic. It will be a different kind of a crisis; but it will be an enormous crisis. These people that are bullish about stocks and bonds and the bond market, they do not understand anything.
Image | This Gold Slam is a Massive Wealth Transfer from Our Pockets to the Banks
This Gold Slam is a Massive Wealth Transfer from Our Pockets to the Banks
by Chris Martenson

I am very disappointed by, but not surprised at, the latest transfer of wealth to the bankers from everyone else.  The most recent gold bear raid has vastly enriched the bullion bankers, once again, at the expense of everyone trying to protect their wealth from global central bank money printing.

The central plank of Bernanke's magic recovery plan has been to get everybody back borrowing, spending, and "investing" in stocks, bonds, and other financial assets.  But not equally so, as he has been instrumental in distorting the landscape towards risk assets and away from safe harbors.
This Gold Slam is a Massive Wealth Transfer from Our Pockets to the Banks
 by Chris Martenson

I am very disappointed by, but not surprised at, the latest transfer of wealth to the bankers from everyone else.  The most recent gold bear raid has vastly enriched the bullion bankers, once again, at the expense of everyone trying to protect their wealth from global central bank money printing.

The central plank of Bernanke's magic recovery plan has been to get everybody back borrowing, spending, and "investing" in stocks, bonds, and other financial assets.  But not equally so, as he has been instrumental in distorting the landscape towards risk assets and away from safe harbors.
Image | Say Goodbye to the Purchasing Power of the Dollar
Say Goodbye to the Purchasing Power of the Dollar
by Adam Taggart

On a long solo car trip this past weekend, I downloaded several podcasts to listen to as the miles passed. One was a classic: The Invention of Money, originally released by NPR's Planet Money team back in January of 2011. I highly recommend listening (or re-listening) to it in full.

The podcast is a great reminder of how any currency in a monetary system is a fabricated construct. A simpler way to explain this is to say it has value simply because we believe it does.

Say Goodbye to the Purchasing Power of the Dollar
 by Adam Taggart

On a long solo car trip this past weekend, I downloaded several podcasts to listen to as the miles passed. One was a classic: The Invention of Money, originally released by NPR's Planet Money team back in January of 2011. I highly recommend listening (or re-listening) to it in full.

The podcast is a great reminder of how any currency in a monetary system is a fabricated construct. A simpler way to explain this is to say it has value simply because we believe it does.

Image | Jim Rogers: We’re Wiping out the Savings Class Globally, to Terrible Consequence
Jim Rogers: We’re Wiping out the Savings Class Globally, to Terrible Consequence
by Chris Martenson

Jim Rogers decries the growing uncertainty and recklessness of global central planners as the world enters unchartered financial markets:

For the first time in recorded history, we have nearly every central bank printing money and trying to debase their currency. This has never happened before. How it’s going to work out, I don't know. It just depends on which one goes down the most and first, and they take turns. When one says a currency is going down, the question is against what? because they are all trying to debase themselves. It’s a peculiar time in world history.
Jim Rogers: We’re Wiping out the Savings Class Globally, to Terrible Consequence
 by Chris Martenson

Jim Rogers decries the growing uncertainty and recklessness of global central planners as the world enters unchartered financial markets:

For the first time in recorded history, we have nearly every central bank printing money and trying to debase their currency. This has never happened before. How it’s going to work out, I don't know. It just depends on which one goes down the most and first, and they take turns. When one says a currency is going down, the question is against what? because they are all trying to debase themselves. It’s a peculiar time in world history.
Image | Why Our Current Way of Living Has No Future
Why Our Current Way of Living Has No Future
by JHK

All of the sordid and spellbinding rackets working their hoodoo on the financial scene have obscured a whole other dimension of the fiasco that America finds itself in, namely the way we have arranged the logistics of everyday life on our landscape – the tragedy of Suburbia.

I call it a tragedy because it represents a sequence of extremely unfortunate choices made by our society over several generations. History will not forgive the excuses we make for ourselves, nor will it shed a tear for the tribulations we will induce for ourselves by living this way. History may, however, draw attention to our remarkable lack of a sense of consequence in transforming this lovely, beckoning New World continent into a wilderness of free parking. In any case, we’re stuck with what we’ve done, and the question naturally arises: What will we do now?
Why Our Current Way of Living Has No Future
 by JHK

All of the sordid and spellbinding rackets working their hoodoo on the financial scene have obscured a whole other dimension of the fiasco that America finds itself in, namely the way we have arranged the logistics of everyday life on our landscape – the tragedy of Suburbia.

I call it a tragedy because it represents a sequence of extremely unfortunate choices made by our society over several generations. History will not forgive the excuses we make for ourselves, nor will it shed a tear for the tribulations we will induce for ourselves by living this way. History may, however, draw attention to our remarkable lack of a sense of consequence in transforming this lovely, beckoning New World continent into a wilderness of free parking. In any case, we’re stuck with what we’ve done, and the question naturally arises: What will we do now?
Image | Warning: Stocks Likely to Crater from Here
Warning: Stocks Likely to Crater from Here
by Chris Martenson

I don't relish the job of constantly pointing out the risks to the equity markets. But since few on Wall Street seem willing (or able) to do this, I'm "making the call" for a market correction, as enough variables have aligned to indicate a high likelihood of stocks heading downwards from here.

I've only given one other such warning about equities before, and that was in March of 2008, when I warned of the possibility of a 40% to 60% decline in stock prices by Fall. I am making a similar call today, with the understanding that I am usually a bit early to the game with my views.
Warning: Stocks Likely to Crater from Here
 by Chris Martenson

I don't relish the job of constantly pointing out the risks to the equity markets. But since few on Wall Street seem willing (or able) to do this, I'm "making the call" for a market correction, as enough variables have aligned to indicate a high likelihood of stocks heading downwards from here.

I've only given one other such warning about equities before, and that was in March of 2008, when I warned of the possibility of a 40% to 60% decline in stock prices by Fall. I am making a similar call today, with the understanding that I am usually a bit early to the game with my views.
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