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Long-Term Market View; Turbulence and Disclosure Ahead

Equities fell 19.44% this year, and -5.90% in December. The December drop (and the “bearish belt hold” candle print) looks quite bearish, but my forecast model isn’t yet convinced. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) margin debt has fallen some 28% from peak, and shows no signs of recovering. Margin debt and the S&P 500…

Long-Term Market View; Turbulence and Disclosure Ahead

PREVIEW by davefairtex

China Shows More Signs of War Mobilization

by Chris Martenson

A quick update on the China War Thesis released less than a week ago. China’s military sent 71 planes and seven ships toward Taiwan in a 24-hour display of force directed at the self-ruled island, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said Monday, after China expressed anger at Taiwan-related provisions in a U.S. annual defense spending bill. China’s…

China Shows More Signs of War Mobilization

by Chris Martenson

An Economic Earthquake

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by Ivor

Is the Bank of Japan lying? What is happening there and what does it mean for the economic system? Chris explains.

An Economic Earthquake

PREVIEW by Ivor

Is the Bank of Japan lying? What is happening there and what does it mean for the economic system? Chris explains.

When Will It Start? It Already Has.

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by Chris Martenson

Fifth Generation Warfare (5GW) is where state actors use all of their exceptionally potent tools of persuasion to control the narrative and install new cognitive biases by hacking our wiring and leveraging our pre-existing beliefs, biases and judgments. Sound like some dystopian SciFi movie? It does, but it’s also the current reality. Welcome to the…

When Will It Start? It Already Has.

PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Gold, Labor Shortages, Rate Increases; Musk: A Case Study

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by davefairtex

On the week, gold fell 10.50 [-0.58%] to 1800.20. All of the losses happened on Thursday. The candle print was mildly bearish, but gold remains above the MA50 and the MA200. Gold does appear to have run into a little bit of trouble. Perhaps this is hinting about a potential low in the buck? Open…

Gold, Labor Shortages, Rate Increases; Musk: A Case Study

PREVIEW by davefairtex

Labor Force Shortfall; The Dunning-Kruger WEF

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by davefairtex

There were a large number of economic reports this week, headed by Payrolls, which were released on Friday, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time: Nonfarm Payrolls: headline +261k, expected +200k; new high, positive. Personal Income: +0.70% month/month (m/m) (prior +0.40 m/m); new high, positive. Auto/Light Truck Sales: +9.17% m/m; positive and recovering from a sharp dip….

Labor Force Shortfall; The Dunning-Kruger WEF

PREVIEW by davefairtex

Recession Indicators; General Winter Arrives

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by davefairtex

There were three big economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +1.26% m/m Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.11% m/m Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.3% m/m Mostly, producer prices = energy, which is down from peak. Retail sales were strong, except for clothing which was flat. Industrial production was basically flat also. I have a pair of models…

Recession Indicators; General Winter Arrives

PREVIEW by davefairtex

A Real Problem: The Illusion of Evidence-Based Medicine

by Mike from Jersey

“The Illusion of Evidence-Based Medicine” investigates corruption in many areas of so-called evidence-based medicine. I found the author’s work examining Randomized Controlled Trials to be the most telling and damning. But there’s more of which I’ll touch on. Clearly, medical treatments should only be administered if they have been proven to be safe and effective….