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Image | CPI Stagflation Surges, Gold and Miners Hit Highs, Trump-Cession Looms
CPI Stagflation Surges, Gold and Miners Hit Highs, Trump-Cession Looms
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by davefairtex

Consumer economy data shows PPI declining, CPI rising, with significant inflation in travel and food. Credit, rates, currencies, metals, energy, and risk assets reflect mixed economic signals.
CPI Stagflation Surges, Gold and Miners Hit Highs, Trump-Cession Looms
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Consumer economy data shows PPI declining, CPI rising, with significant inflation in travel and food. Credit, rates, currencies, metals, energy, and risk assets reflect mixed economic signals.
Image | US Treasury Rates Plunge, Good News in Disability, and They Need War
US Treasury Rates Plunge, Good News in Disability, and They Need War
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by davefairtex

I think this is just the start.  As moves get more extreme, they will eventually break any institution that is crazy enough to be leveraged-short-risk and/or you’ve loaned a ton of money on a New York commercial building which now has a 60% vacancy rate and whose value has dropped by 97%.  I predict that lots of institutions, used to trading in placid markets, will blow up during the upcoming period.
US Treasury Rates Plunge, Good News in Disability, and They Need War
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

I think this is just the start.  As moves get more extreme, they will eventually break any institution that is crazy enough to be leveraged-short-risk and/or you’ve loaned a ton of money on a New York commercial building which now has a 60% vacancy rate and whose value has dropped by 97%.  I predict that lots of institutions, used to trading in placid markets, will blow up during the upcoming period.
Image | Recession Hints and Biden’s Replacement
Recession Hints and Biden’s Replacement
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by davefairtex

The pace of change is increasing.  It really feels as though anything is possible. The Secret Service whistleblowers (plural!) appeared to both OMG and the House committee just days after the event; the speed of the whistleblowing is yet another temporal marker for confidence collapse within the bureaucracy itself.
Recession Hints and Biden’s Replacement
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The pace of change is increasing.  It really feels as though anything is possible. The Secret Service whistleblowers (plural!) appeared to both OMG and the House committee just days after the event; the speed of the whistleblowing is yet another temporal marker for confidence collapse within the bureaucracy itself.
Image | Fleeing Japan and a General Confidence Collapse
Fleeing Japan and a General Confidence Collapse
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There’s always “flight to safety” (in advance?) out of Japan and it may be signaling something important is happening in the Pacific.  Meanwhile, confidence in the WEF is collapsing.
Fleeing Japan and a General Confidence Collapse
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There’s always “flight to safety” (in advance?) out of Japan and it may be signaling something important is happening in the Pacific.  Meanwhile, confidence in the WEF is collapsing.
Image | Dollar Breakout, and TINA Brings Peace
Dollar Breakout, and TINA Brings Peace
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

CPI inflation is on the way back, with oil apparently heading up towards triple-digits once again.  US field production is almost back to pre-pandemic levels, but commercial oil stocks have been dropping hard for the past month or so, and not by a little bit either.  Something is going on, I’m not sure what it is. There are also hints of another government shutdown. 

Dollar Breakout, and TINA Brings Peace
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

CPI inflation is on the way back, with oil apparently heading up towards triple-digits once again.  US field production is almost back to pre-pandemic levels, but commercial oil stocks have been dropping hard for the past month or so, and not by a little bit either.  Something is going on, I’m not sure what it is. There are also hints of another government shutdown. 

Image | Bank Credit Goes Negative, Scaring the Monkeys
Bank Credit Goes Negative, Scaring the Monkeys
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There are 8 billion monkeys, and the bosses are desperate to keep the monkeys dancing.  So they feel they have to keep killing more chickens to keep the monkeys in line.  The parable works with 1 boss and 1 monkey, but that’s not reality.  As this continues, the monkeys are slowly starting to figure out the game.  At some point, the monkeys will look around and realize just how many monkeys and just how few bosses there actually are.
Bank Credit Goes Negative, Scaring the Monkeys
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There are 8 billion monkeys, and the bosses are desperate to keep the monkeys dancing.  So they feel they have to keep killing more chickens to keep the monkeys in line.  The parable works with 1 boss and 1 monkey, but that’s not reality.  As this continues, the monkeys are slowly starting to figure out the game.  At some point, the monkeys will look around and realize just how many monkeys and just how few bosses there actually are.
Image | Rates Higher-for-Longer; Vax U-Turn in Progress
Rates Higher-for-Longer; Vax U-Turn in Progress
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The buck rose 0.78 [+0.76%] to 103.53 this week, managing to close above the 50 moving average (MA) on Friday for the first time since the big decline began back in November 2022. My weekly DX (dollar) model isn’t quite in bullish mode just yet, but as you can see, this is the first two-week…
Rates Higher-for-Longer; Vax U-Turn in Progress
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The buck rose 0.78 [+0.76%] to 103.53 this week, managing to close above the 50 moving average (MA) on Friday for the first time since the big decline began back in November 2022. My weekly DX (dollar) model isn’t quite in bullish mode just yet, but as you can see, this is the first two-week…
Image | Fed Raises Rates +25 bp; The Safety System Works
Fed Raises Rates +25 bp; The Safety System Works
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

We had a market two-fer this week: first, Powell Press Conference Wednesday, followed two days later by Payrolls Friday. First, Powell Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by the expected 25 basis points (bp) (+0.25%). I reduce an hour of press conference down to five bullet points: We need substantially more evidence that inflation is on…
Fed Raises Rates +25 bp; The Safety System Works
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

We had a market two-fer this week: first, Powell Press Conference Wednesday, followed two days later by Payrolls Friday. First, Powell Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by the expected 25 basis points (bp) (+0.25%). I reduce an hour of press conference down to five bullet points: We need substantially more evidence that inflation is on…
Image | A Gold Divergence; Post Vaccine-War Impact Incoming
A Gold Divergence; Post Vaccine-War Impact Incoming
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by davefairtex

We had four economic reports this week: Personal Income (PI): +0.22% month over month (m/m) [+0.26% month over m/m prior]; Slowing, negative. Durable goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +5.33%  m/m, Shipments +0.50% m/m. Positive. Median New Home Sales Prices (MSPNHSUS): -16.9k m/m, New Home Supply: -0.2 [to 9 months]. Negative (for housing). GDP: +1.56% quarter over…
A Gold Divergence; Post Vaccine-War Impact Incoming
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

We had four economic reports this week: Personal Income (PI): +0.22% month over month (m/m) [+0.26% month over m/m prior]; Slowing, negative. Durable goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +5.33%  m/m, Shipments +0.50% m/m. Positive. Median New Home Sales Prices (MSPNHSUS): -16.9k m/m, New Home Supply: -0.2 [to 9 months]. Negative (for housing). GDP: +1.56% quarter over…
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