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by
Chris Martenson
How This Will All End
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Executive Summary
- The inevitable market correction will be triggered by a forcing event, and which one is most likely
- The US has too much debt
- State bailouts signaled by Fed’s denials?
- “Not enough oil to repay the debt”
- Why the cost of debt service will drown us, even if interest rates remain low
- Bond market will lead the way
- The key signs to watch for that will signal the endgame is playing out
- Recommended investment classes for preserving wealth
Part I
If you have not yet read Part I of this report, please click here to read it first.
Part II – How This Will All End
In Part I of this report, I laid out my reasoning for why the game has managed to continue on as long as it has. Where a massive financial dislocation should have happened by now, in practice the impacts have been relatively minor compared to what many people had expected to happen.
But we cannot escape the fact that entirely too many debts and liabilities exist to pay off in current dollars. Either those debts will have to be defaulted upon, or they will have to be inflated away.
Even more important than the question of which one it will be is the question of when. That’s what we will explore here.
How This Will All End
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonHow This Will All End
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Executive Summary
- The inevitable market correction will be triggered by a forcing event, and which one is most likely
- The US has too much debt
- State bailouts signaled by Fed’s denials?
- “Not enough oil to repay the debt”
- Why the cost of debt service will drown us, even if interest rates remain low
- Bond market will lead the way
- The key signs to watch for that will signal the endgame is playing out
- Recommended investment classes for preserving wealth
Part I
If you have not yet read Part I of this report, please click here to read it first.
Part II – How This Will All End
In Part I of this report, I laid out my reasoning for why the game has managed to continue on as long as it has. Where a massive financial dislocation should have happened by now, in practice the impacts have been relatively minor compared to what many people had expected to happen.
But we cannot escape the fact that entirely too many debts and liabilities exist to pay off in current dollars. Either those debts will have to be defaulted upon, or they will have to be inflated away.
Even more important than the question of which one it will be is the question of when. That’s what we will explore here.
by
Chris Martenson
In justifying the massive money printing operations of the Fed, Bernanke used inflation data to bolster his case that the Fed’s actions are both prudent and worth continuing.
Here’s what he said:
Recent data show consumer price inflation continuing to trend downward. For the 12 months ending in November, prices for personal consumption expenditures rose 1.0 percent, and inflation excluding the relatively volatile food and energy components–which tends to be a better gauge of underlying inflation trends–was only 0.8 percent, down from 1.7 percent a year earlier and from about 2-1/2 percent in 2007, the year before the recession began.
(Source)
Why I Don’t Trust the Official Inflation Numbers (and Neither Should You)
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonIn justifying the massive money printing operations of the Fed, Bernanke used inflation data to bolster his case that the Fed’s actions are both prudent and worth continuing.
Here’s what he said:
Recent data show consumer price inflation continuing to trend downward. For the 12 months ending in November, prices for personal consumption expenditures rose 1.0 percent, and inflation excluding the relatively volatile food and energy components–which tends to be a better gauge of underlying inflation trends–was only 0.8 percent, down from 1.7 percent a year earlier and from about 2-1/2 percent in 2007, the year before the recession began.
(Source)
by
Chris Martenson
The US federal government is barreling towards a certain fiscal train wreck. While there is much being gleefully reported about the return of the shoppers…er, consumers…uh, patriotic citizens…spending more than they have, there is almost no hope of growth returning fast enough to offset the amount of budgetary deterioration that now seems to be baked into the cake.
As always, one component of the problem is that the US political leadership has absolutely zero experience with controlling spending, let alone cutting spending. Where austerity is being attempted in Europe (at great pain, too…if you have not seen this video of the recent Greek riots, it is both remarkable and disturbing) the current civil unrest shows that citizens don’t necessarily dutifully accept their politicians’ belt-tightening policies.
The plan, such as it is, for the US fiscal and monetary authorities seems to be to keep up the government spending (including the Fed’s QE efforts) for as long as necessary until self-sustaining growth returns.
The Federal Budget Deficit and the Looming Crisis
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonThe US federal government is barreling towards a certain fiscal train wreck. While there is much being gleefully reported about the return of the shoppers…er, consumers…uh, patriotic citizens…spending more than they have, there is almost no hope of growth returning fast enough to offset the amount of budgetary deterioration that now seems to be baked into the cake.
As always, one component of the problem is that the US political leadership has absolutely zero experience with controlling spending, let alone cutting spending. Where austerity is being attempted in Europe (at great pain, too…if you have not seen this video of the recent Greek riots, it is both remarkable and disturbing) the current civil unrest shows that citizens don’t necessarily dutifully accept their politicians’ belt-tightening policies.
The plan, such as it is, for the US fiscal and monetary authorities seems to be to keep up the government spending (including the Fed’s QE efforts) for as long as necessary until self-sustaining growth returns.
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