page-loading-spinner

Premium Archives

Image | Don’t Be Fooled: Inflation Has The Upper Hand
Don’t Be Fooled: Inflation Has The Upper Hand
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Don’t Be Fooled: Inflation Has The Upper Hand

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Money supply (M2) has been steadily growing for a decade, and banks hold an unprecedented amount of excess reserves that could enter the market at any time.
  • Credit growth is flatlining.
  • Debt in the household & financial sectors (the big enchilada) exhibits the deflationary trends that are pre-occupying the Fed.
  • Federal government credit is exploding upwards as a result.
  • Corporate and state debt are increasing, but at more moderate rates.
  • Energy costs are high and getting higher = inflationary.
  • Confidence in paper currencies is plummeting = potentially hyperinflationary.
  • Forecast for the future…

Part I

If you have not yet read Part I of this report, please click here to read it first.

Part II 

In Part I, we stepped through prices as useful indicators of whether we are in a period of inflation or deflation.  Because there’s no more important determination to make than to get an early read on whether we are facing a future of inflation or deflation, we are going to dive a bit more deeply into the evidence here to round out the story.

Let’s begin with….

Money

The classic definition of inflation or deflation is a “relative change in the amount of money compared to goods and services.”  Too much money and you have inflation; too little and you have deflation.

Don’t Be Fooled: Inflation Has The Upper Hand
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Don’t Be Fooled: Inflation Has The Upper Hand

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Money supply (M2) has been steadily growing for a decade, and banks hold an unprecedented amount of excess reserves that could enter the market at any time.
  • Credit growth is flatlining.
  • Debt in the household & financial sectors (the big enchilada) exhibits the deflationary trends that are pre-occupying the Fed.
  • Federal government credit is exploding upwards as a result.
  • Corporate and state debt are increasing, but at more moderate rates.
  • Energy costs are high and getting higher = inflationary.
  • Confidence in paper currencies is plummeting = potentially hyperinflationary.
  • Forecast for the future…

Part I

If you have not yet read Part I of this report, please click here to read it first.

Part II 

In Part I, we stepped through prices as useful indicators of whether we are in a period of inflation or deflation.  Because there’s no more important determination to make than to get an early read on whether we are facing a future of inflation or deflation, we are going to dive a bit more deeply into the evidence here to round out the story.

Let’s begin with….

Money

The classic definition of inflation or deflation is a “relative change in the amount of money compared to goods and services.”  Too much money and you have inflation; too little and you have deflation.

Image | Budget Wars
Budget Wars
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

All the world was waiting to see what form of budgetary punishment would be visited upon the Irish people as a consequence of banking mistakes and the perceived “need” by the European political class to assure that no bank investors shouldered any of the losses.


While the proposed budget may not be capital punishment, it is not far off.
Budget Wars
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

All the world was waiting to see what form of budgetary punishment would be visited upon the Irish people as a consequence of banking mistakes and the perceived “need” by the European political class to assure that no bank investors shouldered any of the losses.


While the proposed budget may not be capital punishment, it is not far off.
Image | It’s Coming…From The Outside In
It’s Coming…From The Outside In
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

What Europe fears, and the reason that the EU members on the Ireland negotiating team “went berserk” when Ireland raised the prospect of a haircut (losses) for the failed bank’s bondholders, is that the contagion will spread from the periphery to the core.

That is, that the disease will progress from the outside in.

The strange market counter currents that we began tracking a couple of weeks ago are still with us and getting stranger by the day.

At this point I am quite concerned about another major banking crisis, quite similar to the one that nearly took down the system in October of 2008.  The evidence is mounting.

Here are the similarities:

It’s Coming…From The Outside In
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

What Europe fears, and the reason that the EU members on the Ireland negotiating team “went berserk” when Ireland raised the prospect of a haircut (losses) for the failed bank’s bondholders, is that the contagion will spread from the periphery to the core.

That is, that the disease will progress from the outside in.

The strange market counter currents that we began tracking a couple of weeks ago are still with us and getting stranger by the day.

At this point I am quite concerned about another major banking crisis, quite similar to the one that nearly took down the system in October of 2008.  The evidence is mounting.

Here are the similarities:

Image | It’s Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve
It’s Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

It’s Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Executive Summary

  • The age of conventional oil is over, but energy demand will continue to climb.
  • Natural gas is the “silver” of energy plays.
  • The inexorable onset of Peak Oil will drive natural gas much, much higher.
  • A tipping point of awareness approaches.
  • Prepare for extreme market volatility.

Part I

It’s the End of the Oil As We Know It…

Please click here to read Part I of this report.

Part II

Scouring the Globe for Fuel

Please click here to read Part II of this report.

Part III

Okay, so we’ve come to the conclusion that by the time the IEA, which has every incentive to underplay the timing and impact of Peak Oil, has publicly done everything but hand the world an engraved invitation on a silver platter that reads You are cordially invited to accept the reality of Peak Oil, it’s already past time to begin making whatever adjustments you are going to make.

Remember, it is my view that when the changes finally arrive in full force, their speed will overtake most people’s, countries’, and companies’ ability to react gracefully. (Click here for a recent report on this subject). Which means that the time to begin these efforts, if you have not already started, is now.

But we’ve gone over this in quite a bit of detail recently, and so I will not rehash those thoughts here and now. This report begins with the assumption that you have taken care of the basics: food, water, energy, and shelter. Further, you have gold and silver. You’ve got enough spare goods, parts, and necessities to take care of yourself, your family, and a few others besides. You’ve safely removed a comfortable portion of your wealth from the paper-based banking and financial systems. You are diligently working on building your local community.

Okay, so you’ve done all of that.  Now what?

It’s Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

It’s Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Executive Summary

  • The age of conventional oil is over, but energy demand will continue to climb.
  • Natural gas is the “silver” of energy plays.
  • The inexorable onset of Peak Oil will drive natural gas much, much higher.
  • A tipping point of awareness approaches.
  • Prepare for extreme market volatility.

Part I

It’s the End of the Oil As We Know It…

Please click here to read Part I of this report.

Part II

Scouring the Globe for Fuel

Please click here to read Part II of this report.

Part III

Okay, so we’ve come to the conclusion that by the time the IEA, which has every incentive to underplay the timing and impact of Peak Oil, has publicly done everything but hand the world an engraved invitation on a silver platter that reads You are cordially invited to accept the reality of Peak Oil, it’s already past time to begin making whatever adjustments you are going to make.

Remember, it is my view that when the changes finally arrive in full force, their speed will overtake most people’s, countries’, and companies’ ability to react gracefully. (Click here for a recent report on this subject). Which means that the time to begin these efforts, if you have not already started, is now.

But we’ve gone over this in quite a bit of detail recently, and so I will not rehash those thoughts here and now. This report begins with the assumption that you have taken care of the basics: food, water, energy, and shelter. Further, you have gold and silver. You’ve got enough spare goods, parts, and necessities to take care of yourself, your family, and a few others besides. You’ve safely removed a comfortable portion of your wealth from the paper-based banking and financial systems. You are diligently working on building your local community.

Okay, so you’ve done all of that.  Now what?

Image | Chris Interviews Ted Butler: The End of Silver Price Manipulation – Part 2
Chris Interviews Ted Butler: The End of Silver Price Manipulation – Part 2
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

The second part of Chris’ interview with Ted Butler, noted commentator on the silver market, is reserved below for you, our enrolled members.

If you’ve not yet listened to Part 1, click here to do so.

Part 2 of the interview takes a deep dive into the mechanics of how the alleged manipulation of the silver price has been conducted, as well as Ted’s outlook on the future price for the metal.

Simply put, this interview (Parts 1 & 2) is a ‘must listen’ for anyone currently invested in silver or thinking about doing so.

Chris Interviews Ted Butler: The End of Silver Price Manipulation – Part 2
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

The second part of Chris’ interview with Ted Butler, noted commentator on the silver market, is reserved below for you, our enrolled members.

If you’ve not yet listened to Part 1, click here to do so.

Part 2 of the interview takes a deep dive into the mechanics of how the alleged manipulation of the silver price has been conducted, as well as Ted’s outlook on the future price for the metal.

Simply put, this interview (Parts 1 & 2) is a ‘must listen’ for anyone currently invested in silver or thinking about doing so.

Image | Silver, Indecisive Markets, and You
Silver, Indecisive Markets, and You
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

I recently conducted an interview with Ted Butler, the silver champion and analyst, and he got me really excited about what silver may do over the next few years. The podcast of that interview will have both a public portion and a private portion for enrolled members. In the exclusive part, you will learn about some of the reasons that silver may perform really, really well over the coming years.

I said I would be keeping any eye on the silver markets to see if/when the next buy point might come. While I was expecting a bounce, today’s actions caught me off-guard.

Silver, Indecisive Markets, and You
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

I recently conducted an interview with Ted Butler, the silver champion and analyst, and he got me really excited about what silver may do over the next few years. The podcast of that interview will have both a public portion and a private portion for enrolled members. In the exclusive part, you will learn about some of the reasons that silver may perform really, really well over the coming years.

I said I would be keeping any eye on the silver markets to see if/when the next buy point might come. While I was expecting a bounce, today’s actions caught me off-guard.

Image | Bond Market Rebels, QE II Under Attack?
Bond Market Rebels, QE II Under Attack?
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Oh my. What is the world coming to?

The bond market seems to have gone “off script” and is defying the Fed’s recent announcement of $600 billion in new Treasury purchases.

This would be a rather stunning rebuke of the Fed’s supposed omnipotence and leadership.  If it gets out of hand, it could be a real game-changer.

Yes, we had the international community condemn QEII as little more than banana-republic-style money printing, but for the domestic bond market to join into the fray seems rather ominous:

Bond Market Rebels, QE II Under Attack?
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Oh my. What is the world coming to?

The bond market seems to have gone “off script” and is defying the Fed’s recent announcement of $600 billion in new Treasury purchases.

This would be a rather stunning rebuke of the Fed’s supposed omnipotence and leadership.  If it gets out of hand, it could be a real game-changer.

Yes, we had the international community condemn QEII as little more than banana-republic-style money printing, but for the domestic bond market to join into the fray seems rather ominous:

Image | Commodities, Stocks, and Bonds (?!) Slammed
Commodities, Stocks, and Bonds (?!) Slammed
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Well, it’s an interesting day on the markets; one that could signal an important change in trend.

The 10-year bond is down (and the 7-year and 5-year down even more, in terms of basis points), stocks are down, and commodities are down hard. And the dollar is down, too. Not by much, but it’s down. This breaks the inverse dollar correlation that’s been dominating the landscape for a while and has me wondering if a change in trend is not upon us.

Certainly this could all be part of the normal correction process for markets that have all been on fire (to the upside) for the past three months. But it’s also quite a departure from recent action, and it has my attention.

Before I go any further, let me reiterate my position on silver, gold, and the commodities.

Commodities, Stocks, and Bonds (?!) Slammed
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Well, it’s an interesting day on the markets; one that could signal an important change in trend.

The 10-year bond is down (and the 7-year and 5-year down even more, in terms of basis points), stocks are down, and commodities are down hard. And the dollar is down, too. Not by much, but it’s down. This breaks the inverse dollar correlation that’s been dominating the landscape for a while and has me wondering if a change in trend is not upon us.

Certainly this could all be part of the normal correction process for markets that have all been on fire (to the upside) for the past three months. But it’s also quite a departure from recent action, and it has my attention.

Before I go any further, let me reiterate my position on silver, gold, and the commodities.

Image | Germany Attacks US Economic Policy
Germany Attacks US Economic Policy
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

The title of this piece comes straight from a Financial Times article posted this morning. The German finance minister leveled the cannons and blasted away at US policy, daring to point out that emperor has no clothes.

In a vigorous and unflinching attack, he described US economic policies as “clueless” and pointed out that the US stance towards China’s exchange rate policy is hypocritical.

In several of the scenarios that I have written, I have used ‘words’ from a German official as the trigger for massive, disruptive change. So perhaps I am overly sensitized to this particular development, but I am convinced that this is exactly how the ball gets rolling; someone in a position of authority speaks the truth.

Germany Attacks US Economic Policy
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

The title of this piece comes straight from a Financial Times article posted this morning. The German finance minister leveled the cannons and blasted away at US policy, daring to point out that emperor has no clothes.

In a vigorous and unflinching attack, he described US economic policies as “clueless” and pointed out that the US stance towards China’s exchange rate policy is hypocritical.

In several of the scenarios that I have written, I have used ‘words’ from a German official as the trigger for massive, disruptive change. So perhaps I am overly sensitized to this particular development, but I am convinced that this is exactly how the ball gets rolling; someone in a position of authority speaks the truth.

Image | The Slippery Slope
The Slippery Slope
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

QE II is now out of the bag, ready to alter the course of history.

There are several assessments that I’ve held over the years that have never wavered:

  • Thin-air money printing. U.S. monetary and fiscal authorities (the Fed and Congress, respectively) will make every attempt to print and spend their way out of this financial predicament and will not take the path of austerity until forced to by external circumstances.
  • Gold and silver are an excellent way to protect your wealth from the form of confiscation that thin-air money printing represents.
  • Over the next 20 years, resource issues, especially in energy, specifically in petroleum, are going to fundamentally reshape the economic landscape. And maybe the political and social landscapes to boot.

More than two years ago now, reacting to an increase in the levels of government and Federal Reserve bailouts (The Day Everything Changed), I opined that a course had been set and that we were in all new territory that would lead to a dollar crisis someday.

This was my conclusion on September 19, 2008:

The Slippery Slope
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

QE II is now out of the bag, ready to alter the course of history.

There are several assessments that I’ve held over the years that have never wavered:

  • Thin-air money printing. U.S. monetary and fiscal authorities (the Fed and Congress, respectively) will make every attempt to print and spend their way out of this financial predicament and will not take the path of austerity until forced to by external circumstances.
  • Gold and silver are an excellent way to protect your wealth from the form of confiscation that thin-air money printing represents.
  • Over the next 20 years, resource issues, especially in energy, specifically in petroleum, are going to fundamentally reshape the economic landscape. And maybe the political and social landscapes to boot.

More than two years ago now, reacting to an increase in the levels of government and Federal Reserve bailouts (The Day Everything Changed), I opined that a course had been set and that we were in all new territory that would lead to a dollar crisis someday.

This was my conclusion on September 19, 2008:

Total 1184 items

Community

Top Conversation

 Prep Now for the Coming Winter Challenges
I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about the needs and sustainability of our family. We have six young children, our oldest just turned 12 and our youngest just turned 3 months old. I love the considerations that the article had above and thought I would add a few things that I have considered for our situation. My...
Image | hgrootveldgmail-com by hgrootveldgmail-com
36 95
View the conversation
Image | Above Phone

Above Phone

Learn more
Image | Harvest Right

Harvest Right

Learn more