Recession Indicators; General Winter Arrives PREVIEW There were three big economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +1.26% m/m Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.11% m/m Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.3% m/m Mostly, producer prices = energy, which is down from peak. Retail sales were strong, except for clothing which was flat. Industrial production was basically flat also. I have a pair of models… Recession Indicators; General Winter Arrives PREVIEW There were three big economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +1.26% m/m Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.11% m/m Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.3% m/m Mostly, producer prices = energy, which is down from peak. Retail sales were strong, except for clothing which was flat. Industrial production was basically flat also. I have a pair of models…
Dollar Crushed; Apology for America PREVIEW The buck was crushed this week, plunging -4.61% to 106.16, moving lower four days out of five. The bulk of the losses came after the Consumer Price Index release around 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday, which showed a slightly lower rate (+0.44% m/m) than expected, and then on Friday, there were hints from the Chines… Dollar Crushed; Apology for America PREVIEW The buck was crushed this week, plunging -4.61% to 106.16, moving lower four days out of five. The bulk of the losses came after the Consumer Price Index release around 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday, which showed a slightly lower rate (+0.44% m/m) than expected, and then on Friday, there were hints from the Chines…
Higher for Longer; Hints of Panic PREVIEW The Elite’s narrative is breaking on many fronts Higher for Longer; Hints of Panic PREVIEW The Elite’s narrative is breaking on many fronts
Tech Issues; Fourth Turning Cycle Timing PREVIEW This week, it was the European Central Bank’s turn to raise rates, this time by 75 basis points to yield a massive 1.5% for deposits. Just kidding about the massive part. The ECB has a lot of rate-increasing to do to catch up with the Fed, but the currency moves this week seemed to hint… Tech Issues; Fourth Turning Cycle Timing PREVIEW This week, it was the European Central Bank’s turn to raise rates, this time by 75 basis points to yield a massive 1.5% for deposits. Just kidding about the massive part. The ECB has a lot of rate-increasing to do to catch up with the Fed, but the currency moves this week seemed to hint…
Back to the 1970s; Victory Disease PREVIEW The buck fell this week, dropping 1.22 [-1.08%] to 111.98. Most of the damage happened on Friday. The candle print was bearish, and the buck closed back below its 9 MA – although it remains above the 50, which is where it has spent most of its time during 2022. Buck remains in an uptrend,… Back to the 1970s; Victory Disease PREVIEW The buck fell this week, dropping 1.22 [-1.08%] to 111.98. Most of the damage happened on Friday. The candle print was bearish, and the buck closed back below its 9 MA – although it remains above the 50, which is where it has spent most of its time during 2022. Buck remains in an uptrend,…
Services Inflation; The Speed of Science PREVIEW This week, it was hard to sort out the events that caused the various market moves. Here were the U.S. data releases this week: Retail Sales: headline unchanged, expected +0.2% [Fri] Consumer Price Index: headline +0.38% m/m, expected +0.2% [Thu] Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.29% m/m, “final demand” PPI +0.4% m/m, expected +0.2% [Wed] From… Services Inflation; The Speed of Science PREVIEW This week, it was hard to sort out the events that caused the various market moves. Here were the U.S. data releases this week: Retail Sales: headline unchanged, expected +0.2% [Fri] Consumer Price Index: headline +0.38% m/m, expected +0.2% [Thu] Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.29% m/m, “final demand” PPI +0.4% m/m, expected +0.2% [Wed] From…
Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK PREVIEW Payrolls looked “surprisingly strong” on Friday, with the headline number at +263,000, with +250,000 expected. That wasn’t a big difference, but markets sold off hard immediately following this release – except for oil and gasoline, which had great days, apparently unaffected by payrolls one way or the other. Wolf Richter, who is usually on top… Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK PREVIEW Payrolls looked “surprisingly strong” on Friday, with the headline number at +263,000, with +250,000 expected. That wasn’t a big difference, but markets sold off hard immediately following this release – except for oil and gasoline, which had great days, apparently unaffected by payrolls one way or the other. Wolf Richter, who is usually on top…
65 Billion Pound Solvency Problem and The Hybrid War Explained PREVIEW The big market-moving news this week – as you probably know by now – was the solvency problem in the leveraged UK pension funds. (Leveraged? Pension funds???) The UK pension funds were holding UK sovereign debt, the price of which has been plunging (due to rising rates), which wouldn’t normally matter (just hold until maturity,… 65 Billion Pound Solvency Problem and The Hybrid War Explained PREVIEW The big market-moving news this week – as you probably know by now – was the solvency problem in the leveraged UK pension funds. (Leveraged? Pension funds???) The UK pension funds were holding UK sovereign debt, the price of which has been plunging (due to rising rates), which wouldn’t normally matter (just hold until maturity,…
A Huge Dollar Rally, and A Tipping Point PREVIEW The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday; looking forward, Powell is hawkish, and talks about maintaining a “restrictive policy for some time.” For those who want to get it from the horses mouth, and have a lot of time to kill, you can listen here (Source – FOMC/YouTube). Wolf Richter’s take on… A Huge Dollar Rally, and A Tipping Point PREVIEW The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday; looking forward, Powell is hawkish, and talks about maintaining a “restrictive policy for some time.” For those who want to get it from the horses mouth, and have a lot of time to kill, you can listen here (Source – FOMC/YouTube). Wolf Richter’s take on…
FedEx Projects Global Recession; Spike-Induced Pellagra? PREVIEW The Consumer Price Index release on Tuesday (expected: -0.1% m/m, actual: +0.12% m/m) had the strongest impact on prices this week; equities sold off hard (more than 2% in five minutes). The S&P 500 Index (SPX) eventually closed the day at the dead lows, which is never a good sign, since it means “there was… FedEx Projects Global Recession; Spike-Induced Pellagra? PREVIEW The Consumer Price Index release on Tuesday (expected: -0.1% m/m, actual: +0.12% m/m) had the strongest impact on prices this week; equities sold off hard (more than 2% in five minutes). The S&P 500 Index (SPX) eventually closed the day at the dead lows, which is never a good sign, since it means “there was…
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