A Slowing Economy; We Are Past Peak WEF PREVIEW Signs and symptoms of recession this week: Retail Sales (RSAFS): -1.16% month over month (m/m), motor vehicles -1.62% m/m, food and beverage +0.03%. Bearish. Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.73% m/m, manufacturing -1.32% m/m. Bearish Producer Prices (PPIACO): -2.00% m/m. Bearish. Baltic Exchange Dry Index (trading economics): new 3-year low. None of this looks good. Note that… A Slowing Economy; We Are Past Peak WEF PREVIEW Signs and symptoms of recession this week: Retail Sales (RSAFS): -1.16% month over month (m/m), motor vehicles -1.62% m/m, food and beverage +0.03%. Bearish. Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.73% m/m, manufacturing -1.32% m/m. Bearish Producer Prices (PPIACO): -2.00% m/m. Bearish. Baltic Exchange Dry Index (trading economics): new 3-year low. None of this looks good. Note that…
More Services Inflation; Plebe Lives Matter PREVIEW The Consumer Price Index (CPI) news was the primary economic release this week; allegedly, inflation dropped -0.08% month over month (m/m), and rose +6.42% year over year (y/y). But, while aggregate CPI (black line) fell fairly briskly, services inflation (red line) ticked higher. Services inflation continues to rise. What categories are pushing services inflation higher?… More Services Inflation; Plebe Lives Matter PREVIEW The Consumer Price Index (CPI) news was the primary economic release this week; allegedly, inflation dropped -0.08% month over month (m/m), and rose +6.42% year over year (y/y). But, while aggregate CPI (black line) fell fairly briskly, services inflation (red line) ticked higher. Services inflation continues to rise. What categories are pushing services inflation higher?…
Mixed Data; These Are Our Stories PREVIEW There were two economic reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: +223k month over month (m/m) [prior +256k] (bullish) Durable Goods: New Orders -2.13% m/m, Shipments +0.19% m/m (bearish) My favorite section of payrolls that I use for detecting recession isn’t showing a clear signal of recession just yet; the FRED Series (LNS12032196) titled “working part-time for… Mixed Data; These Are Our Stories PREVIEW There were two economic reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: +223k month over month (m/m) [prior +256k] (bullish) Durable Goods: New Orders -2.13% m/m, Shipments +0.19% m/m (bearish) My favorite section of payrolls that I use for detecting recession isn’t showing a clear signal of recession just yet; the FRED Series (LNS12032196) titled “working part-time for…
Long-Term Market View; Turbulence and Disclosure Ahead PREVIEW Equities fell 19.44% this year, and -5.90% in December. The December drop (and the “bearish belt hold” candle print) looks quite bearish, but my forecast model isn’t yet convinced. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) margin debt has fallen some 28% from peak, and shows no signs of recovering. Margin debt and the S&P 500… Long-Term Market View; Turbulence and Disclosure Ahead PREVIEW Equities fell 19.44% this year, and -5.90% in December. The December drop (and the “bearish belt hold” candle print) looks quite bearish, but my forecast model isn’t yet convinced. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) margin debt has fallen some 28% from peak, and shows no signs of recovering. Margin debt and the S&P 500…
Long-Term Perspective, Crude and the 10-Year Yield PREVIEW This week, I will use monthly charts because they provide a more long-term perspective on what has happened, and may provide clues where things might be headed. A teacher of mine once said, to see the trend better, pull back on the timeframe. In that spirit, this New Year post will try to focus on… Long-Term Perspective, Crude and the 10-Year Yield PREVIEW This week, I will use monthly charts because they provide a more long-term perspective on what has happened, and may provide clues where things might be headed. A teacher of mine once said, to see the trend better, pull back on the timeframe. In that spirit, this New Year post will try to focus on…
Mining, Crude and The Vaccine Bubble PREVIEW In contrast to gold’s mostly-sideways move, the miners rallied strongly on the week, up 3.67%. Silver also did well, climbing +2.67%, making a new closing high. Ratios: GDX:gold +0.72% (bullish), GDXJ:GDX +1.54% (bullish), Gold:Silver ratio -2.64% (bullish). Even though gold barely moved, this was a bullish week overall for PM. I especially like how the… Mining, Crude and The Vaccine Bubble PREVIEW In contrast to gold’s mostly-sideways move, the miners rallied strongly on the week, up 3.67%. Silver also did well, climbing +2.67%, making a new closing high. Ratios: GDX:gold +0.72% (bullish), GDXJ:GDX +1.54% (bullish), Gold:Silver ratio -2.64% (bullish). Even though gold barely moved, this was a bullish week overall for PM. I especially like how the…
Mixed Macro Data and The Dollar PREVIEW There were a number of economic reports this week: Personal Income: +0.36% month over month (m/m), prior +0.68% m/m. Still positive, but slowing. Durable Goods: new orders -2.13% m/m, prior +0.735 m/m; topping out. Bearish Median New Home Sales: +7.57 m/m, prior +3.14% m/m. New all time high. Personal Income: +1.3% quarter over quarter (q/q),… Mixed Macro Data and The Dollar PREVIEW There were a number of economic reports this week: Personal Income: +0.36% month over month (m/m), prior +0.68% m/m. Still positive, but slowing. Durable Goods: new orders -2.13% m/m, prior +0.735 m/m; topping out. Bearish Median New Home Sales: +7.57 m/m, prior +3.14% m/m. New all time high. Personal Income: +1.3% quarter over quarter (q/q),…
Fed Rates, Dollar Reacts PREVIEW There were three important economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): -0.59% month over month, prior +1.29% m/m. Negative, especially the month before Commercialized Christmas. Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.22% m/m, prior +2.45%. Negative. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL); +0.10% m/m, prior +0.44%. Falling energy prices are mostly responsible for the decline. Unlike last week, this picture… Fed Rates, Dollar Reacts PREVIEW There were three important economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): -0.59% month over month, prior +1.29% m/m. Negative, especially the month before Commercialized Christmas. Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.22% m/m, prior +2.45%. Negative. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL); +0.10% m/m, prior +0.44%. Falling energy prices are mostly responsible for the decline. Unlike last week, this picture…
Gold, Labor Shortages, Rate Increases; Musk: A Case Study PREVIEW On the week, gold fell 10.50 [-0.58%] to 1800.20. All of the losses happened on Thursday. The candle print was mildly bearish, but gold remains above the MA50 and the MA200. Gold does appear to have run into a little bit of trouble. Perhaps this is hinting about a potential low in the buck? Open… Gold, Labor Shortages, Rate Increases; Musk: A Case Study PREVIEW On the week, gold fell 10.50 [-0.58%] to 1800.20. All of the losses happened on Thursday. The candle print was mildly bearish, but gold remains above the MA50 and the MA200. Gold does appear to have run into a little bit of trouble. Perhaps this is hinting about a potential low in the buck? Open…
Oil Makes a 12-Month Low; Guidance from Col. Hackworth PREVIEW There were a pair of economic reports this week: The Producer Price Index by Commodity (PPIACO): -0.72% month over month (m/m), +9.07% year over year (y/y). Producer price inflation is falling – it is less than half of what it was at the peak (23%) in October, 2021. Durable Goods: Orders +1.06% m/m, New Orders:… Oil Makes a 12-Month Low; Guidance from Col. Hackworth PREVIEW There were a pair of economic reports this week: The Producer Price Index by Commodity (PPIACO): -0.72% month over month (m/m), +9.07% year over year (y/y). Producer price inflation is falling – it is less than half of what it was at the peak (23%) in October, 2021. Durable Goods: Orders +1.06% m/m, New Orders:…
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