davefairtex

Five reports and the balance sheet this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +0.34% m/m, prior +0.37% m/m.  Mildly recessionary (1y horizon). Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.16% m/m, prior +0.51% m/m.  Mildly recessionary (1y horizon). Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.12% m/m, prior +0.37% m/m.  Inflation (1y horizon). Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.24% m/m, prior +0.01% m/m.  Deflation (1m and…

While there was a ton of “polycrisis” news this week, there were just two reports: Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): +3.4B w/w.  Mostly unchanged. ISM Services: actual 50.3, expected 52.2.  Flat. Rates appear to be lining up for a 25 bp rate increase ahead of the Fed meeting coming up on Wednesday, June 14th.  The odds…

Four reports this week – payrolls, ISM, the Fed balance sheet, and total bank credit Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS): +339k, expected +190k, prior +294k.  Expansion. Unemployment (UNRATE) 3.7%, prior 3.4%, expected 3.5%.   Low, Sideways Trend. Employed Part-Time – Could Only Find Part-Time Work (LNS12032196): +7k, but in a downtrend.  Expansion. CLF 16-64, With a Disability, Men+Women…

Two reports and a balance sheet: Payrolls: headline +253k, expected +178k; avg hourly earnings +0.5%, expected +0.3%.  Expansionary. PMI Manufacturing: 50.2, expected 50.4; weak – contractionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -58.7B w/w, previous -30.5B.  Deflationary. The Fed raised rates at this week’s meeting by 25 bp to 5.08%.  Is Powell going to raise rates again?  CME…

There were a bunch of reports this week: Q1 2023 GDP: 0.26% q/q, expected 2.0%, +1.25% y/y.  Recessionary.  Allegedly adjusted for inflation. Durable Goods: New orders: +3.2% m/m, expected 0.9%, previous -1.2%.  Expansionary. Dallas Fed Mfg: Actual: -23.4, expected -11.5, prior -15.7.  Recessionary. New Home Sales: Actual: 683k, expected 634k, prior 640k. Consumer Sentiment: Actual:…