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Image | Fed Raises +25 bp, Happy Payrolls, and Be Like Djokovic
Fed Raises +25 bp, Happy Payrolls, and Be Like Djokovic
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Two reports and a balance sheet: Payrolls: headline +253k, expected +178k; avg hourly earnings +0.5%, expected +0.3%.  Expansionary. PMI Manufacturing: 50.2, expected 50.4; weak – contractionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -58.7B w/w, previous -30.5B.  Deflationary. The Fed raised rates at this week’s meeting by 25 bp to 5.08%.  Is Powell going to raise rates again?  CME…
Fed Raises +25 bp, Happy Payrolls, and Be Like Djokovic
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Two reports and a balance sheet: Payrolls: headline +253k, expected +178k; avg hourly earnings +0.5%, expected +0.3%.  Expansionary. PMI Manufacturing: 50.2, expected 50.4; weak – contractionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -58.7B w/w, previous -30.5B.  Deflationary. The Fed raised rates at this week’s meeting by 25 bp to 5.08%.  Is Powell going to raise rates again?  CME…
Image | Recession probably here; Fed meeting next week
Recession probably here; Fed meeting next week
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There were a bunch of reports this week: Q1 2023 GDP: 0.26% q/q, expected 2.0%, +1.25% y/y.  Recessionary.  Allegedly adjusted for inflation. Durable Goods: New orders: +3.2% m/m, expected 0.9%, previous -1.2%.  Expansionary. Dallas Fed Mfg: Actual: -23.4, expected -11.5, prior -15.7.  Recessionary. New Home Sales: Actual: 683k, expected 634k, prior 640k. Consumer Sentiment: Actual:…
Recession probably here; Fed meeting next week
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There were a bunch of reports this week: Q1 2023 GDP: 0.26% q/q, expected 2.0%, +1.25% y/y.  Recessionary.  Allegedly adjusted for inflation. Durable Goods: New orders: +3.2% m/m, expected 0.9%, previous -1.2%.  Expansionary. Dallas Fed Mfg: Actual: -23.4, expected -11.5, prior -15.7.  Recessionary. New Home Sales: Actual: 683k, expected 634k, prior 640k. Consumer Sentiment: Actual:…
Image | Big drop in 1-month treasury yields; Telegraphing the crash
Big drop in 1-month treasury yields; Telegraphing the crash
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Three reports: Existing Home Sales (EXHOSLUSM495S): -2.42% m/m, but +10% y/y. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: expected -19.4, actual -31.3.  Recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -21B w/w [-0.25% w/w]. Rates this week were mostly unchanged – except for that red-circled 1-month treasury yield which plunged an incredible 95 basis points in just one week!  Money continues…
Big drop in 1-month treasury yields; Telegraphing the crash
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Three reports: Existing Home Sales (EXHOSLUSM495S): -2.42% m/m, but +10% y/y. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: expected -19.4, actual -31.3.  Recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -21B w/w [-0.25% w/w]. Rates this week were mostly unchanged – except for that red-circled 1-month treasury yield which plunged an incredible 95 basis points in just one week!  Money continues…
Image | SPR drained again; crisis = opportunity
SPR drained again; crisis = opportunity
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This week, there were five Economic Reports, plus the Fed balance sheet: Industrial Production (INDPRO): +0.38% m/m [0.3% expected], manufacturing -0.53% m/m [-0.1% expected]. Mixed. Retail Sales (RSAFS): -0.99% m/m [-0.4% expected]; recessionary. Producer Prices (PPIACO); -0.65% m/m, deflationary.  Mostly due to energy. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.1% m/m [+0.3% expected]; non-inflationary. Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT):…
SPR drained again; crisis = opportunity
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This week, there were five Economic Reports, plus the Fed balance sheet: Industrial Production (INDPRO): +0.38% m/m [0.3% expected], manufacturing -0.53% m/m [-0.1% expected]. Mixed. Retail Sales (RSAFS): -0.99% m/m [-0.4% expected]; recessionary. Producer Prices (PPIACO); -0.65% m/m, deflationary.  Mostly due to energy. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.1% m/m [+0.3% expected]; non-inflationary. Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT):…
Image | Overnight trading as an indicator; Eat your vaccines
Overnight trading as an indicator; Eat your vaccines
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Reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: headline +236k [+0.15%] m/m; avg hourly earnings +0.3% m/m.  Expansionary.  Also true for my payrolls “recession detector” sub-index: “working part time/slack work” (LNS12032195): +33k, which is still at expansionary levels. ISM Manufacturing: 46.3 (expected 47.5); contractionary. ISM Services: 51.2 (expected 54.4); weakly expansionary. Factory Orders: -0.7% m/m (expected -0.4%); contractionary….
Overnight trading as an indicator; Eat your vaccines
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Reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: headline +236k [+0.15%] m/m; avg hourly earnings +0.3% m/m.  Expansionary.  Also true for my payrolls “recession detector” sub-index: “working part time/slack work” (LNS12032195): +33k, which is still at expansionary levels. ISM Manufacturing: 46.3 (expected 47.5); contractionary. ISM Services: 51.2 (expected 54.4); weakly expansionary. Factory Orders: -0.7% m/m (expected -0.4%); contractionary….
Image | banksters seem short-silver hesitant; vaccine is the mechanism
banksters seem short-silver hesitant; vaccine is the mechanism
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Five economic reports this week: Industrial Production: -0.02% m/m [prior +0.4% m/m]; topping out, recessionary Personal Income: +0.32% m/m [prior +0.55% m/m]; steady uptrend, increasingly inflationary Auto/Light Truck Sales: -6.57% m/m [prior +18.7% m/m]; medium-term expansionary GDP: +1.61% q/q [prior +1.88% q/q]; adjusted for (CPI) inflation: slowing-to-recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -0.32% m/m (-87 billion) [prior…
banksters seem short-silver hesitant; vaccine is the mechanism
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Five economic reports this week: Industrial Production: -0.02% m/m [prior +0.4% m/m]; topping out, recessionary Personal Income: +0.32% m/m [prior +0.55% m/m]; steady uptrend, increasingly inflationary Auto/Light Truck Sales: -6.57% m/m [prior +18.7% m/m]; medium-term expansionary GDP: +1.61% q/q [prior +1.88% q/q]; adjusted for (CPI) inflation: slowing-to-recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -0.32% m/m (-87 billion) [prior…
Image | Fed Bank Loss Coverup; Still Early Innings
Fed Bank Loss Coverup; Still Early Innings
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Two economic reports and Fed Activity: Durable Goods:  New Orders -1.0% m/m [prior -5.0% m/m]; topping process (month #2) Median New Home Sales: Price +2.7% m/m [prior -9.2% m/m]; slight rebound in a sharp downturn (month #5) Fed Rate Increase: +25 bp Fed Balance Sheet: +94b [+1.1% m/m, prior +3.6% m/m], to 8.73 Trillion. In…
Fed Bank Loss Coverup; Still Early Innings
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Two economic reports and Fed Activity: Durable Goods:  New Orders -1.0% m/m [prior -5.0% m/m]; topping process (month #2) Median New Home Sales: Price +2.7% m/m [prior -9.2% m/m]; slight rebound in a sharp downturn (month #5) Fed Rate Increase: +25 bp Fed Balance Sheet: +94b [+1.1% m/m, prior +3.6% m/m], to 8.73 Trillion. In…
Image | Short Rates Plunge, Fourth Turning, Meet the Djinn
Short Rates Plunge, Fourth Turning, Meet the Djinn
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Economic Reports: Retail Sales: -0.4% m/m [prior +3.1% m/m], contraction. Industrial Production: +0.0% m/m [prior +0.27% m/m], contraction CPI-Urban: +0.37% m/m [prior +0.51% m/m], inflation Producer Prices (Input): -0.47% m/m [prior +0.71% m/m], deflation. In addition, Fed balance sheet climbed this week by $297 billion [+3.44% w/w].  “Money printing” is back.  Except: Wolf provides some…
Short Rates Plunge, Fourth Turning, Meet the Djinn
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Economic Reports: Retail Sales: -0.4% m/m [prior +3.1% m/m], contraction. Industrial Production: +0.0% m/m [prior +0.27% m/m], contraction CPI-Urban: +0.37% m/m [prior +0.51% m/m], inflation Producer Prices (Input): -0.47% m/m [prior +0.71% m/m], deflation. In addition, Fed balance sheet climbed this week by $297 billion [+3.44% w/w].  “Money printing” is back.  Except: Wolf provides some…
Image | Banksters, bonds, and failure; the next pandemic dead ahead
Banksters, bonds, and failure; the next pandemic dead ahead
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I’m going to leave “economic reports” for later – why bury the lead (lede)? Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) collapsed on Friday.  Excuse me, what I meant to say was: US regulators have shut down Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and taken control of its customer deposits in the largest failure of a US bank since 2008…
Banksters, bonds, and failure; the next pandemic dead ahead
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I’m going to leave “economic reports” for later – why bury the lead (lede)? Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) collapsed on Friday.  Excuse me, what I meant to say was: US regulators have shut down Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and taken control of its customer deposits in the largest failure of a US bank since 2008…
Image | heavy trucks, silver, and endorphins
heavy trucks, silver, and endorphins
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Four economic reports this week: Auto/Light Truck Sales: -6.2% m/m, heavy truck sales: -11.9% m/m. Durable Goods: new orders -4.5 m/m, prior +5.1% m/m, shipments -0.1% m/m. ISM Services Index: 55.1 (flat = 50.0). PMI Manufacturing Index: 47.3 (flat = 50.0). So ISM Services remains hot, there’s a contraction in manufacturing, durable goods could be…
heavy trucks, silver, and endorphins
 PREVIEW

Four economic reports this week: Auto/Light Truck Sales: -6.2% m/m, heavy truck sales: -11.9% m/m. Durable Goods: new orders -4.5 m/m, prior +5.1% m/m, shipments -0.1% m/m. ISM Services Index: 55.1 (flat = 50.0). PMI Manufacturing Index: 47.3 (flat = 50.0). So ISM Services remains hot, there’s a contraction in manufacturing, durable goods could be…
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 Fauci's Private Diary Exposes Stark Contradictions on Lab Leak, Lethality, Lockdowns & Vaccines
Once again I am so grateful and appreciative to Chris (@cmartenson) for sorting through this horrendous Covid deception early on.
This allowed me to avoid the shot myself, self treat with ivermectin, zinc, vitamin-D and quercetin, stop wearing a mask when faced with a COVID positive patient, as well as making post on my facebook ER doctors groups that...
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