Fed Raises Rates +25 bp; The Safety System Works PREVIEW We had a market two-fer this week: first, Powell Press Conference Wednesday, followed two days later by Payrolls Friday. First, Powell Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by the expected 25 basis points (bp) (+0.25%). I reduce an hour of press conference down to five bullet points: We need substantially more evidence that inflation is on… Fed Raises Rates +25 bp; The Safety System Works PREVIEW We had a market two-fer this week: first, Powell Press Conference Wednesday, followed two days later by Payrolls Friday. First, Powell Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by the expected 25 basis points (bp) (+0.25%). I reduce an hour of press conference down to five bullet points: We need substantially more evidence that inflation is on…
A Gold Divergence; Post Vaccine-War Impact Incoming PREVIEW We had four economic reports this week: Personal Income (PI): +0.22% month over month (m/m) [+0.26% month over m/m prior]; Slowing, negative. Durable goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +5.33% m/m, Shipments +0.50% m/m. Positive. Median New Home Sales Prices (MSPNHSUS): -16.9k m/m, New Home Supply: -0.2 [to 9 months]. Negative (for housing). GDP: +1.56% quarter over… A Gold Divergence; Post Vaccine-War Impact Incoming PREVIEW We had four economic reports this week: Personal Income (PI): +0.22% month over month (m/m) [+0.26% month over m/m prior]; Slowing, negative. Durable goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +5.33% m/m, Shipments +0.50% m/m. Positive. Median New Home Sales Prices (MSPNHSUS): -16.9k m/m, New Home Supply: -0.2 [to 9 months]. Negative (for housing). GDP: +1.56% quarter over…
A Slowing Economy; We Are Past Peak WEF PREVIEW Signs and symptoms of recession this week: Retail Sales (RSAFS): -1.16% month over month (m/m), motor vehicles -1.62% m/m, food and beverage +0.03%. Bearish. Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.73% m/m, manufacturing -1.32% m/m. Bearish Producer Prices (PPIACO): -2.00% m/m. Bearish. Baltic Exchange Dry Index (trading economics): new 3-year low. None of this looks good. Note that… A Slowing Economy; We Are Past Peak WEF PREVIEW Signs and symptoms of recession this week: Retail Sales (RSAFS): -1.16% month over month (m/m), motor vehicles -1.62% m/m, food and beverage +0.03%. Bearish. Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.73% m/m, manufacturing -1.32% m/m. Bearish Producer Prices (PPIACO): -2.00% m/m. Bearish. Baltic Exchange Dry Index (trading economics): new 3-year low. None of this looks good. Note that…
More Services Inflation; Plebe Lives Matter PREVIEW The Consumer Price Index (CPI) news was the primary economic release this week; allegedly, inflation dropped -0.08% month over month (m/m), and rose +6.42% year over year (y/y). But, while aggregate CPI (black line) fell fairly briskly, services inflation (red line) ticked higher. Services inflation continues to rise. What categories are pushing services inflation higher?… More Services Inflation; Plebe Lives Matter PREVIEW The Consumer Price Index (CPI) news was the primary economic release this week; allegedly, inflation dropped -0.08% month over month (m/m), and rose +6.42% year over year (y/y). But, while aggregate CPI (black line) fell fairly briskly, services inflation (red line) ticked higher. Services inflation continues to rise. What categories are pushing services inflation higher?…
Mixed Data; These Are Our Stories PREVIEW There were two economic reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: +223k month over month (m/m) [prior +256k] (bullish) Durable Goods: New Orders -2.13% m/m, Shipments +0.19% m/m (bearish) My favorite section of payrolls that I use for detecting recession isn’t showing a clear signal of recession just yet; the FRED Series (LNS12032196) titled “working part-time for… Mixed Data; These Are Our Stories PREVIEW There were two economic reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: +223k month over month (m/m) [prior +256k] (bullish) Durable Goods: New Orders -2.13% m/m, Shipments +0.19% m/m (bearish) My favorite section of payrolls that I use for detecting recession isn’t showing a clear signal of recession just yet; the FRED Series (LNS12032196) titled “working part-time for…
Long-Term Market View; Turbulence and Disclosure Ahead PREVIEW Equities fell 19.44% this year, and -5.90% in December. The December drop (and the “bearish belt hold” candle print) looks quite bearish, but my forecast model isn’t yet convinced. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) margin debt has fallen some 28% from peak, and shows no signs of recovering. Margin debt and the S&P 500… Long-Term Market View; Turbulence and Disclosure Ahead PREVIEW Equities fell 19.44% this year, and -5.90% in December. The December drop (and the “bearish belt hold” candle print) looks quite bearish, but my forecast model isn’t yet convinced. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) margin debt has fallen some 28% from peak, and shows no signs of recovering. Margin debt and the S&P 500…
Long-Term Perspective, Crude and the 10-Year Yield This week, I will use monthly charts because they provide a more long-term perspective on what has happened, and may provide clues where things might be headed. A teacher of mine once said, to see the trend better, pull back on the timeframe. In that spirit, this New Year post will try to focus on… Long-Term Perspective, Crude and the 10-Year Yield This week, I will use monthly charts because they provide a more long-term perspective on what has happened, and may provide clues where things might be headed. A teacher of mine once said, to see the trend better, pull back on the timeframe. In that spirit, this New Year post will try to focus on…
Mining, Crude and The Vaccine Bubble PREVIEW In contrast to gold’s mostly-sideways move, the miners rallied strongly on the week, up 3.67%. Silver also did well, climbing +2.67%, making a new closing high. Ratios: GDX:gold +0.72% (bullish), GDXJ:GDX +1.54% (bullish), Gold:Silver ratio -2.64% (bullish). Even though gold barely moved, this was a bullish week overall for PM. I especially like how the… Mining, Crude and The Vaccine Bubble PREVIEW In contrast to gold’s mostly-sideways move, the miners rallied strongly on the week, up 3.67%. Silver also did well, climbing +2.67%, making a new closing high. Ratios: GDX:gold +0.72% (bullish), GDXJ:GDX +1.54% (bullish), Gold:Silver ratio -2.64% (bullish). Even though gold barely moved, this was a bullish week overall for PM. I especially like how the…
Mixed Macro Data and The Dollar There were a number of economic reports this week: Personal Income: +0.36% month over month (m/m), prior +0.68% m/m. Still positive, but slowing. Durable Goods: new orders -2.13% m/m, prior +0.735 m/m; topping out. Bearish Median New Home Sales: +7.57 m/m, prior +3.14% m/m. New all time high. Personal Income: +1.3% quarter over quarter (q/q),… Mixed Macro Data and The Dollar There were a number of economic reports this week: Personal Income: +0.36% month over month (m/m), prior +0.68% m/m. Still positive, but slowing. Durable Goods: new orders -2.13% m/m, prior +0.735 m/m; topping out. Bearish Median New Home Sales: +7.57 m/m, prior +3.14% m/m. New all time high. Personal Income: +1.3% quarter over quarter (q/q),…
Fed Rates, Dollar Reacts There were three important economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): -0.59% month over month, prior +1.29% m/m. Negative, especially the month before Commercialized Christmas. Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.22% m/m, prior +2.45%. Negative. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL); +0.10% m/m, prior +0.44%. Falling energy prices are mostly responsible for the decline. Unlike last week, this picture… Fed Rates, Dollar Reacts There were three important economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): -0.59% month over month, prior +1.29% m/m. Negative, especially the month before Commercialized Christmas. Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.22% m/m, prior +2.45%. Negative. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL); +0.10% m/m, prior +0.44%. Falling energy prices are mostly responsible for the decline. Unlike last week, this picture…
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