I think we are probably in a recession right now. That’s what my model is suggesting. Of course, it suggested this back in 2023 too, so it is not always correct – and/or the bureaucrats didn’t want to notice the recession back then. Interestingly, Ed Dowd’s people saw the same thing. Today: bad manufacturing, likely job shrinkage (once the “revisions” appear – “oopsie”), damage from two Election Hurricanes, more vax-injured leaving the workforce, long rates continuing to jump higher – it feels like the recession-inflation outcome. (My hypothesis: national Zients-mandated vax-injury caused a lot of this recession-inflation; less ability to produce, the injured continue to consume, and they spend their savings or take on debt to do so. Meanwhile they’re being gaslit and ignored by “the system.”). And the Fed looks as though it’s gonna cut rates perhaps one or two more times. That’ll spike inflation for the upcoming administration.
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by jim-h-2 
