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Peak Insiders
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- Sustaining through a prolonged currency decline is challenging. How to best invest your capital through the speculative whipsaws that will buffet asset prices.
- Why important-dependent countries (like the US) are particularly vulnerable.
- What the stages of a US currency crisis will be.
- What the lessons from the currency destruction in the Weimar Republic and modern Iran have to teach us about wealth preservation.
If you have not yet read Part I: Our Money Is Dying, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
A Process, Not an Event
An important observation is that even the most destructive of these episodes are multi-year processes and are not events that transpire over a matter of days. This means that you will most likely have to plan on navigating the waters for at least several years, possibly as many as ten, which raises issues around the depth of your mental and emotional resilience, and the durability of your physical and financial preparations.
Sure, nearly everybody can coast through the first few weeks and months of a monetary crisis. But very few will truly thrive through the entire process until a final capitulation is reached from which a new beginning can emerge.
Is such resilience even a reasonable goal, or something that can be consciously manifested?
Yes, of course it is. That's why we at Peak Prosperity are here doing what we do…
Positioning Yourself for When Our Money Dies
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- Sustaining through a prolonged currency decline is challenging. How to best invest your capital through the speculative whipsaws that will buffet asset prices.
- Why important-dependent countries (like the US) are particularly vulnerable.
- What the stages of a US currency crisis will be.
- What the lessons from the currency destruction in the Weimar Republic and modern Iran have to teach us about wealth preservation.
If you have not yet read Part I: Our Money Is Dying, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
A Process, Not an Event
An important observation is that even the most destructive of these episodes are multi-year processes and are not events that transpire over a matter of days. This means that you will most likely have to plan on navigating the waters for at least several years, possibly as many as ten, which raises issues around the depth of your mental and emotional resilience, and the durability of your physical and financial preparations.
Sure, nearly everybody can coast through the first few weeks and months of a monetary crisis. But very few will truly thrive through the entire process until a final capitulation is reached from which a new beginning can emerge.
Is such resilience even a reasonable goal, or something that can be consciously manifested?
Yes, of course it is. That's why we at Peak Prosperity are here doing what we do…
by
charleshughsmith
Executive Summary
- Technical analysis offers methods for identifying long-term trend changes
- Introducing the Coppock Curve
- Why the Coppock Curve indicates a coming decline in the equities markets
- If correct, it may take 8-15 months to hit the bottom of the decline before a recovery begins
- Global markets are likely to all go down together, making finding "safe havens" more challenging
If you have not yet read Part I: When Will Reality Intrude and the Stock Market Hit Bottom?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we explored the correlation between the stock market and the real economy (tenuous in times of massive intervention) and the probability that the economy’s next trough lies between 10 and 30 weeks in the future. We then looked to Japan’s Nikkei stock market index as a guide to equities’ performance in eras dominated by debt and deleveraging, and found that the Nikkei’s history suggests a bottom in U.S. stocks could be as far as a year away, in mid-2013. This aligns with the possibility that the real economy hits a recessionary bottom in late 2012 and the stock market finally reflects that weakness six months later in mid-2013.
As we look at other evidence supporting a significant decline in stocks, we must keep Part I’s caveats firmly in mind:
- It’s possible that equities could rise to previous highs or even reach new highs in the near term, despite the recessionary stagnation of real incomes and growth, as stocks tend to be “lagging indicators” of recession.
- Massive monetary easing and fiscal stimulus could push “risk-on” assets (such as stocks) higher, even as the real economy weakens.
- Global Corporate America could continue generating profits that would support stock market valuations even as the bottom 80% of U.S. households sees further deterioration in their real incomes and balance sheets.
These three factors could support a decoupling of the stock market from the “main street” economy as measured by real (inflation adjusted) incomes and household balance sheets.
Predicting the ‘When?’ & ‘How Far?’ of the Next Market Decline
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- Technical analysis offers methods for identifying long-term trend changes
- Introducing the Coppock Curve
- Why the Coppock Curve indicates a coming decline in the equities markets
- If correct, it may take 8-15 months to hit the bottom of the decline before a recovery begins
- Global markets are likely to all go down together, making finding "safe havens" more challenging
If you have not yet read Part I: When Will Reality Intrude and the Stock Market Hit Bottom?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we explored the correlation between the stock market and the real economy (tenuous in times of massive intervention) and the probability that the economy’s next trough lies between 10 and 30 weeks in the future. We then looked to Japan’s Nikkei stock market index as a guide to equities’ performance in eras dominated by debt and deleveraging, and found that the Nikkei’s history suggests a bottom in U.S. stocks could be as far as a year away, in mid-2013. This aligns with the possibility that the real economy hits a recessionary bottom in late 2012 and the stock market finally reflects that weakness six months later in mid-2013.
As we look at other evidence supporting a significant decline in stocks, we must keep Part I’s caveats firmly in mind:
- It’s possible that equities could rise to previous highs or even reach new highs in the near term, despite the recessionary stagnation of real incomes and growth, as stocks tend to be “lagging indicators” of recession.
- Massive monetary easing and fiscal stimulus could push “risk-on” assets (such as stocks) higher, even as the real economy weakens.
- Global Corporate America could continue generating profits that would support stock market valuations even as the bottom 80% of U.S. households sees further deterioration in their real incomes and balance sheets.
These three factors could support a decoupling of the stock market from the “main street” economy as measured by real (inflation adjusted) incomes and household balance sheets.
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