The persistent drought coupled with a record heatwave is seriously denting farm harvest forecasts across the US and grain futures have already been sent soaring.
In some cases, the prices are approaching the old 2008 highs, which saw food riots spring up around the globe and contribute to several rather dramatic regime changes.
It looks like the same dynamic is in play again.
The Heatwave
The current US heatwave has broken so many records, 4,500 for the year of 2012 and counting, that a map displaying each new record set in the month of June looks like a really, really bad case of poison ivy has struck the country.
If you mentally overlay the grain-producing regions of the country on the map above, you will find a very good match. We’ll get to that in a minute.
These are records that have been set are exactly that — records — encompassing data that goes back, in some cases, more than 150 years. So this heatwave really was one for the record books and has been quite extraordinary….and summer has just gotten started.
While the heatwave has moderated somewhat in the Midwest and the East, rainfall is still in very short supply.
The Drought
A heatwave can merely be unpleasant, but it turns damaging if there’s a rain shortfall. To accompany the record-smashing heatwave, the US is also experiencing a drought so severe and persistent it may rival the very destructive one of 1988.
Currently 76% of the US (including where I live) is experiencing moderate or worse drought conditions. In a number of places, especially in Indiana and Illinois, the drought is severe.
In many locations, even if the rains were to return in abundance right now, this year’s harvest can no longer turn in an excellent or bumper crop.