I am hoping for a quiet summer so that all of us north of the equator can enjoy the warm, lazy months of July and August in peace and quiet. But I am concerned that this may not come to pass.
The daily drumbeat of bad news from Europe covers all fronts and is relentless. Rumors abound, confusion reigns, downgrades happen weekly and sometimes daily, unemployment is up, the economy is slipping, and it is entirely unclear if anybody there knows what to do.
Even as the stock markets somehow magically find their footing on each new rumor turning back at each critical zone of support, while gold continues to languish, I find myself increasingly bearish as all the new data comes in on both the unfolding European credit crisis and the slowing global economy.
Here's the troubling information out of Europe:
Spain Poised for a Cut to Junk as Default Swaps Near Records
June 26 (Bloomberg) — Spain is poised for a downgrade to junk by Moody’s Investors Service, according to investors who sent the cost of default insurance for the nation’s biggest banks and companies close to record highs.
Credit-default swaps on Banco Santander SA, the country’s biggest bank, jumped 23 percent this quarter to 454 basis points, compared with an all-time high of 474 in November. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA rose 26 percent to 477, approaching May’s record 516, while phone company Telefonica SA surged 70 percent to a record 540 basis points.
Moody’s downgraded 28 Spanish banks yesterday including a two-step cut for Banco Santander and a three-level reduction for BBVA, a week after it lowered Spain’s rating to Baa3, on the cusp of junk. The country remains on review for another cut by New York-based Moody’s after it sought a 100 billion-euro ($125 billion) international bailout for its banks and on speculation losses from its real estate industry will worsen.
“There’s more to come if Moody’s downgrades the sovereign as we expect in the next few weeks,” said Suki Mann, a credit analyst at Societe Generale SA in London. “A one-notch move to Ba1 will likely see all the country’s banking system in junk territory, with the possible exception of Santander.”
(Source)
Surging credit default rates and widening spreads were the exact early warning indicators that most clued me in to the imminent crisis back in early October 2008.
by dickd 
