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Image | Tech Issues; Fourth Turning Cycle Timing
Tech Issues; Fourth Turning Cycle Timing
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

This week, it was the European Central Bank’s turn to raise rates, this time by 75 basis points to yield a massive 1.5% for deposits.  Just kidding about the massive part. The ECB has a lot of rate-increasing to do to catch up with the Fed, but the currency moves this week seemed to hint…
Tech Issues; Fourth Turning Cycle Timing
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

This week, it was the European Central Bank’s turn to raise rates, this time by 75 basis points to yield a massive 1.5% for deposits.  Just kidding about the massive part. The ECB has a lot of rate-increasing to do to catch up with the Fed, but the currency moves this week seemed to hint…
Image | Back to the 1970s; Victory Disease
Back to the 1970s; Victory Disease
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The buck fell this week, dropping 1.22 [-1.08%] to 111.98. Most of the damage happened on Friday. The candle print was bearish, and the buck closed back below its 9 MA – although it remains above the 50, which is where it has spent most of its time during 2022.   Buck remains in an uptrend,…
Back to the 1970s; Victory Disease
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The buck fell this week, dropping 1.22 [-1.08%] to 111.98. Most of the damage happened on Friday. The candle print was bearish, and the buck closed back below its 9 MA – although it remains above the 50, which is where it has spent most of its time during 2022.   Buck remains in an uptrend,…
Image | Services Inflation; The Speed of Science
Services Inflation; The Speed of Science
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

This week, it was hard to sort out the events that caused the various market moves. Here were the U.S. data releases this week: Retail Sales: headline unchanged, expected +0.2% [Fri] Consumer Price Index: headline +0.38% m/m, expected +0.2% [Thu] Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.29% m/m, “final demand” PPI +0.4% m/m, expected +0.2% [Wed] From…
Services Inflation; The Speed of Science
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

This week, it was hard to sort out the events that caused the various market moves. Here were the U.S. data releases this week: Retail Sales: headline unchanged, expected +0.2% [Fri] Consumer Price Index: headline +0.38% m/m, expected +0.2% [Thu] Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.29% m/m, “final demand” PPI +0.4% m/m, expected +0.2% [Wed] From…
Image | Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK
Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Payrolls looked “surprisingly strong” on Friday, with the headline number at +263,000, with +250,000 expected. That wasn’t a big difference, but markets sold off hard immediately following this release – except for oil and gasoline, which had great days, apparently unaffected by payrolls one way or the other. Wolf Richter, who is usually on top…
Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Payrolls looked “surprisingly strong” on Friday, with the headline number at +263,000, with +250,000 expected. That wasn’t a big difference, but markets sold off hard immediately following this release – except for oil and gasoline, which had great days, apparently unaffected by payrolls one way or the other. Wolf Richter, who is usually on top…
Image | 65 Billion Pound Solvency Problem and The Hybrid War Explained
65 Billion Pound Solvency Problem and The Hybrid War Explained
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The big market-moving news this week – as you probably know by now – was the solvency problem in the leveraged UK pension funds. (Leveraged? Pension funds???) The UK pension funds were holding UK sovereign debt, the price of which has been plunging (due to rising rates), which wouldn’t normally matter (just hold until maturity,…
65 Billion Pound Solvency Problem and The Hybrid War Explained
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The big market-moving news this week – as you probably know by now – was the solvency problem in the leveraged UK pension funds. (Leveraged? Pension funds???) The UK pension funds were holding UK sovereign debt, the price of which has been plunging (due to rising rates), which wouldn’t normally matter (just hold until maturity,…
Image | A Huge Dollar Rally, and A Tipping Point
A Huge Dollar Rally, and A Tipping Point
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday; looking forward, Powell is hawkish, and talks about maintaining a “restrictive policy for some time.” For those who want to get it from the horses mouth, and have a lot of time to kill, you can listen here (Source – FOMC/YouTube). Wolf Richter’s take on…
A Huge Dollar Rally, and A Tipping Point
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday; looking forward, Powell is hawkish, and talks about maintaining a “restrictive policy for some time.” For those who want to get it from the horses mouth, and have a lot of time to kill, you can listen here (Source – FOMC/YouTube). Wolf Richter’s take on…
Image | FedEx Projects Global Recession; Spike-Induced Pellagra?
FedEx Projects Global Recession; Spike-Induced Pellagra?
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The Consumer Price Index release on Tuesday (expected: -0.1% m/m, actual: +0.12% m/m) had the strongest impact on prices this week; equities sold off hard (more than 2% in five minutes). The S&P 500 Index (SPX) eventually closed the day at the dead lows, which is never a good sign, since it means “there was…
FedEx Projects Global Recession; Spike-Induced Pellagra?
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The Consumer Price Index release on Tuesday (expected: -0.1% m/m, actual: +0.12% m/m) had the strongest impact on prices this week; equities sold off hard (more than 2% in five minutes). The S&P 500 Index (SPX) eventually closed the day at the dead lows, which is never a good sign, since it means “there was…
Image | ECB Raises Rates; The Golden Ruble
ECB Raises Rates; The Golden Ruble
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The market-moving event this week: the European Central Bank decided to raise rates by 75 bp, so now deposits are yielding (are you ready?): a grand total of 0.75%.  Back up the truck! Note: the ECB previously had negative rates from 2016-2022. Wolf has the charts: ECB Shocked, Shocked, to Find that Inflation is Going…
ECB Raises Rates; The Golden Ruble
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The market-moving event this week: the European Central Bank decided to raise rates by 75 bp, so now deposits are yielding (are you ready?): a grand total of 0.75%.  Back up the truck! Note: the ECB previously had negative rates from 2016-2022. Wolf has the charts: ECB Shocked, Shocked, to Find that Inflation is Going…
Image | Be Careful Out There; Technocracy in a Nutshell
Be Careful Out There; Technocracy in a Nutshell
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Payrolls came in reasonably strong on Friday; the headline number was +315,000, with the labor force growing by 786,000, a fairly brisk increase, marking a new high for the labor force. That means a lot more people started actually looking for work. (Series: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) – CLF16OV, civilian labor force 16 years…
Be Careful Out There; Technocracy in a Nutshell
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Payrolls came in reasonably strong on Friday; the headline number was +315,000, with the labor force growing by 786,000, a fairly brisk increase, marking a new high for the labor force. That means a lot more people started actually looking for work. (Series: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) – CLF16OV, civilian labor force 16 years…
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