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Image | China Follow-Up, Energy, and the Future
China Follow-Up, Energy, and the Future
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

In the most recent Martenson Report, I laid the foundation for understanding that China may be on an aggressive policy of resource acquisition tuned to the reality of depletion.

Here are a couple of very interesting ideas and news items that have come out.  The first is that the US government is now publicly concerned that China may be trying to “lock up” oil reserves.  I find this somewhat humorous because this message is conveyed without the slightest trace of irony.  This, of course, has been the US’s own policy for a very long time.

China Follow-Up, Energy, and the Future
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In the most recent Martenson Report, I laid the foundation for understanding that China may be on an aggressive policy of resource acquisition tuned to the reality of depletion.

Here are a couple of very interesting ideas and news items that have come out.  The first is that the US government is now publicly concerned that China may be trying to “lock up” oil reserves.  I find this somewhat humorous because this message is conveyed without the slightest trace of irony.  This, of course, has been the US’s own policy for a very long time.

Image | “It’s Really Bad” – Oil Supplies Intentionally Overstated
“It’s Really Bad” – Oil Supplies Intentionally Overstated
by Chris Martenson

The Guardian published an explosive article today.  If true, it means that governments have been intentionally overstating the amount of oil that we have and could pump out of the ground. The implications are enormous.

This confirms the evidence that I saw at ASPO that had been painstakingly developed by independent researchers.  So we might want to incorporate this news into our personal and financial frameworks.

First, a snippet:
“It’s Really Bad” – Oil Supplies Intentionally Overstated
 by Chris Martenson

The Guardian published an explosive article today.  If true, it means that governments have been intentionally overstating the amount of oil that we have and could pump out of the ground. The implications are enormous.

This confirms the evidence that I saw at ASPO that had been painstakingly developed by independent researchers.  So we might want to incorporate this news into our personal and financial frameworks.

First, a snippet:
Image | The Energy-Less Recovery
The Energy-Less Recovery
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

There is such a tight correlation between energy use (specifically petroleum demand) and economic growth that it is almost unthinkable to suggest that one could actually have a recovery in the economy absent a recovery in petroleum demand.

But that’s what we are being asked to believe, if we put the results of two separate government reports together that both happened to come out today.  The first says that the US economy shrank by only 0.18% percent in the second quarter, or at an annualized rate of 0.7%.  The second says that oil demand in July retreated to a level last seen 13 years ago.

These do not make sense in the least, and one of them has it dead wrong.  You know where I am going with this already, don’t you?

Here’s the first:
The Energy-Less Recovery
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

There is such a tight correlation between energy use (specifically petroleum demand) and economic growth that it is almost unthinkable to suggest that one could actually have a recovery in the economy absent a recovery in petroleum demand.

But that’s what we are being asked to believe, if we put the results of two separate government reports together that both happened to come out today.  The first says that the US economy shrank by only 0.18% percent in the second quarter, or at an annualized rate of 0.7%.  The second says that oil demand in July retreated to a level last seen 13 years ago.

These do not make sense in the least, and one of them has it dead wrong.  You know where I am going with this already, don’t you?

Here’s the first:
Image | Saving Oil in a Hurry
Saving Oil in a Hurry
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

What would happen if there was some sort of an oil emergency that required countries to rapidly cut down on their fuel use?  Clearly there would have to be some sort of a triage plan to allocate what oil was available.

There are a number of possible scenarios that could lead to a cessation of oil imports and/or distribution, ranging from hurricanes to wars in the mid-east.

This is worth thinking about, because the impact to your lifestyle could be large, depending on your circumstances.

Luckily, we have a pretty good ‘lens’ into the mindset of the official planners, because in 2005 the IEA completed a study where they assessed the types of policy responses that would save the most oil and at what cost (to implement; not to lower the impact on the economy or your lifestyle, obviously).
Saving Oil in a Hurry
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

What would happen if there was some sort of an oil emergency that required countries to rapidly cut down on their fuel use?  Clearly there would have to be some sort of a triage plan to allocate what oil was available.

There are a number of possible scenarios that could lead to a cessation of oil imports and/or distribution, ranging from hurricanes to wars in the mid-east.

This is worth thinking about, because the impact to your lifestyle could be large, depending on your circumstances.

Luckily, we have a pretty good ‘lens’ into the mindset of the official planners, because in 2005 the IEA completed a study where they assessed the types of policy responses that would save the most oil and at what cost (to implement; not to lower the impact on the economy or your lifestyle, obviously).
Image | Natural Gas Prices in Free-Fall
Natural Gas Prices in Free-Fall
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

As you know from the oil reports I put out a while back, I am concerned that our broken paper markets are having real-world impacts that might prove to be regrettable.  One of those areas is in the realm of NG pricing and production.

I am convinced that we are in the midst of a price/supply/demand whipsaw that will leave us poorly prepared for a resurgence in energy demand that is sure to come.

Gas Reserves Hit New High, Forcing Prices Downhill

Natural Gas Prices in Free-Fall
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

As you know from the oil reports I put out a while back, I am concerned that our broken paper markets are having real-world impacts that might prove to be regrettable.  One of those areas is in the realm of NG pricing and production.

I am convinced that we are in the midst of a price/supply/demand whipsaw that will leave us poorly prepared for a resurgence in energy demand that is sure to come.

Gas Reserves Hit New High, Forcing Prices Downhill

Image | Chart of the Day – US Oil Imports
Chart of the Day – US Oil Imports
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

This is your chart of the day.  If anything can explain exactly the sort of difficulties our economy is facing, this is it.

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All economic growth requires energy.  This decline in energy use is the first such decline in the entire history of our energy records.  Sure, there have been a couple of minor dips (back in the 1970’s), but nothing quite like this.

Chart of the Day – US Oil Imports
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

This is your chart of the day.  If anything can explain exactly the sort of difficulties our economy is facing, this is it.

/></p> <p>(<a href=Source)

All economic growth requires energy.  This decline in energy use is the first such decline in the entire history of our energy records.  Sure, there have been a couple of minor dips (back in the 1970’s), but nothing quite like this.

Image | Resource Wars
Resource Wars
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

This is a must-read article.  It shows that the big money, and what I consider to be the long-term smart money, is moving aggressively towards locking up the last remaining critical resources on the planet. This article centers on crop land, but it could just as easily center on critical mineral resources. Or oil.

Wish you weren’t here: The devastating effects of the new colonialists

Resource Wars
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

This is a must-read article.  It shows that the big money, and what I consider to be the long-term smart money, is moving aggressively towards locking up the last remaining critical resources on the planet. This article centers on crop land, but it could just as easily center on critical mineral resources. Or oil.

Wish you weren’t here: The devastating effects of the new colonialists

Image | Oil, More and Less
Oil, More and Less
by Chris Martenson

Another post of interest from the In Session archives:

Oil is a tale of more and less.

Here’s the more:

Saudi Arabia has started production from its giant Khurais oilfield, the largest ever single addition to global oil supplies, Saudi Aramco’s top executive said in remarks broadcast on Wednesday. 

Oil, More and Less
 by Chris Martenson

Another post of interest from the In Session archives:

Oil is a tale of more and less.

Here’s the more:

Saudi Arabia has started production from its giant Khurais oilfield, the largest ever single addition to global oil supplies, Saudi Aramco’s top executive said in remarks broadcast on Wednesday. 

Image | New Martenson Report: Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)
New Martenson Report: Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)
by Chris Martenson

In this Martenson Report for subscribers, I continue with Part II of our discussion on what the next oil supply crunch will mean and steps you might take today to lessen the impact.

Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)

Here’s a snippet:

Executive Summary

  • Explaining Oil Pricing – oil prices are "set at the margin"
  • Oil Storage – When it’s pumped out of the ground it has to go somewhere
  • Oil Price Behavior – slight supply and demand imbalances drive prices
  • The Total Shortfall – too little oil to support a robust recovery
  • Nothing Fails Like Success – the worst thing would be a rapid economic recovery
  • Timing – when will Oil Shock III arrive?
  • What should you do?
  • Investments, food, selecting a community, and an abbreviated buy list

In Part I of this report, I laid out the case that the
combination of declines in the production output of existing oilfields and a
lack of investment in new oil fields would lay the foundation for Oil Shock
III.

This report will examine Oil Shock III by painting a number
of possible scenarios, and then discuss steps you might take to weather the
storm, when it arrives. I will help you
translate current news and future projections into actionable information. My goal is to help you better understand what
is going on and what you can personally do about it.

New Martenson Report: Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)
 by Chris Martenson

In this Martenson Report for subscribers, I continue with Part II of our discussion on what the next oil supply crunch will mean and steps you might take today to lessen the impact.

Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)

Here’s a snippet:

Executive Summary

  • Explaining Oil Pricing – oil prices are "set at the margin"
  • Oil Storage – When it’s pumped out of the ground it has to go somewhere
  • Oil Price Behavior – slight supply and demand imbalances drive prices
  • The Total Shortfall – too little oil to support a robust recovery
  • Nothing Fails Like Success – the worst thing would be a rapid economic recovery
  • Timing – when will Oil Shock III arrive?
  • What should you do?
  • Investments, food, selecting a community, and an abbreviated buy list

In Part I of this report, I laid out the case that the
combination of declines in the production output of existing oilfields and a
lack of investment in new oil fields would lay the foundation for Oil Shock
III.

This report will examine Oil Shock III by painting a number
of possible scenarios, and then discuss steps you might take to weather the
storm, when it arrives. I will help you
translate current news and future projections into actionable information. My goal is to help you better understand what
is going on and what you can personally do about it.

Image | Martenson Report Ready – Oil Shock III
Martenson Report Ready – Oil Shock III
by Chris Martenson

A new Martenson Report is ready for subscribers.


Link: Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part I)

A snippet from the opening:

This is one of the most important Martenson Reports I will write this
year. In this report, I explain
why the global stimulus plan will not succeed at returning the global economy
to a path of sustainable growth or even to its former heights, seen in
2006/2007.

A snippet from the conclusion: 


The assumption by the G20 that money printed out of thin air is both necessary and sufficient to return us to a renewed path of global economic growth is deeply flawed. Trillions of dollars in new stimulus money will soon “find their mark” and stampede off looking for something to do. The energy to support all this money does not exist, at least if the independent efforts of three diverse institutions that have studied the data are to be trusted (and I do because their conclusions are so similar).


The combination of rapid declines in existing fields and a collapse in oil field investment means that it is extremely unlikely that we’ll have enough oil to return the globe to robust growth.


While it is possible that we’ll close some of the energy gap with efficiency measures, a decade or more of lead-time sits between the development of more efficient technologies and their full market penetration, which means that efficiency is unlikely to play anything other than a bit part in this developing drama.


Any plan to stimulate growth that does not take this energy reality into account is highly suspect and is probably flawed. Why this most obvious of all connections is not being openly discussed will be for future historians to dissect. For now, it is up to each of us to define for ourselves how much importance we place in this line of thinking.

Martenson Report Ready – Oil Shock III
 by Chris Martenson

A new Martenson Report is ready for subscribers.


Link: Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part I)

A snippet from the opening:

This is one of the most important Martenson Reports I will write this
year. In this report, I explain
why the global stimulus plan will not succeed at returning the global economy
to a path of sustainable growth or even to its former heights, seen in
2006/2007.

A snippet from the conclusion: 


The assumption by the G20 that money printed out of thin air is both necessary and sufficient to return us to a renewed path of global economic growth is deeply flawed. Trillions of dollars in new stimulus money will soon “find their mark” and stampede off looking for something to do. The energy to support all this money does not exist, at least if the independent efforts of three diverse institutions that have studied the data are to be trusted (and I do because their conclusions are so similar).


The combination of rapid declines in existing fields and a collapse in oil field investment means that it is extremely unlikely that we’ll have enough oil to return the globe to robust growth.


While it is possible that we’ll close some of the energy gap with efficiency measures, a decade or more of lead-time sits between the development of more efficient technologies and their full market penetration, which means that efficiency is unlikely to play anything other than a bit part in this developing drama.


Any plan to stimulate growth that does not take this energy reality into account is highly suspect and is probably flawed. Why this most obvious of all connections is not being openly discussed will be for future historians to dissect. For now, it is up to each of us to define for ourselves how much importance we place in this line of thinking.

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