page-loading-spinner
Home Economy

Economy

by Brian Pretti

Executive Summary

  • What the NACM Index and the Atlanta GDPNow are telling us about the odds of returning to recession
  • Bond market volatility is picking up
  • Are central banks are losing their control?
  • Why monitoring credit markets will be our best indicator of the next downturn

If you have not yet read Part 1: As Goes The Credit Market, So Goes The World available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

That indicator is the current level of the National Association of Credit Managers Index.  Although not wildly well known, the National Association of Credit Managers Index is an indicator deserving of attention and monitoring immediately ahead.

As per the National Association of Credit Management (NACM), the Credit Managers Index is a monthly survey of responses from US credit and collections professionals rating factors such as sales, credit availability, new credit applications, accounts placed on collection, etc.  The NACM tells us that numeric response levels above 50 represent an economy in expansionary mode, which means readings below 50 connote economic contraction.  For now, the index rests in territory connoting economic expansion, but the index is also sitting quite near a 6 year low.  We’ve been here before in the current cycle as the economy has moved in fits and starts in terms of the character of growth:

 

In a prior discussion, I mentioned the slowing in the US economy in the first quarter of 2015.  I highlighted the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model that turned out to be very correct in its assessment of Q1 US GDP.  While the Atlanta Fed was predicting a 0.1% Q1 GDP growth rate number, the Blue Chip Economists were expecting 1.4% growth.  When the 0.2% number was reported, it turns out the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model was virtually right on the mark.  As of now, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is predicting a…

The Central Banks Are Losing Control Of The System
PREVIEW by Brian Pretti

Executive Summary

  • What the NACM Index and the Atlanta GDPNow are telling us about the odds of returning to recession
  • Bond market volatility is picking up
  • Are central banks are losing their control?
  • Why monitoring credit markets will be our best indicator of the next downturn

If you have not yet read Part 1: As Goes The Credit Market, So Goes The World available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

That indicator is the current level of the National Association of Credit Managers Index.  Although not wildly well known, the National Association of Credit Managers Index is an indicator deserving of attention and monitoring immediately ahead.

As per the National Association of Credit Management (NACM), the Credit Managers Index is a monthly survey of responses from US credit and collections professionals rating factors such as sales, credit availability, new credit applications, accounts placed on collection, etc.  The NACM tells us that numeric response levels above 50 represent an economy in expansionary mode, which means readings below 50 connote economic contraction.  For now, the index rests in territory connoting economic expansion, but the index is also sitting quite near a 6 year low.  We’ve been here before in the current cycle as the economy has moved in fits and starts in terms of the character of growth:

 

In a prior discussion, I mentioned the slowing in the US economy in the first quarter of 2015.  I highlighted the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model that turned out to be very correct in its assessment of Q1 US GDP.  While the Atlanta Fed was predicting a 0.1% Q1 GDP growth rate number, the Blue Chip Economists were expecting 1.4% growth.  When the 0.2% number was reported, it turns out the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model was virtually right on the mark.  As of now, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is predicting a…

by Nomi Prins

Executive Summary

  • Central planners are showing increasing signs of insecurity in their ability to maintain control
  • Credit default risk is on the rise
  • So are geo-political and economic risks
  • Manipulation continues to muddy price discovery
  • Crime & fraud have rotted the core our financial system
  • How to tread carefully in these markets

If you have not yet read Part 1: 4 Factors Signaling Volatility Will Return With A Vengeance available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

When stock markets keep racking up records, it’s hard to imagine steep downturns.  Yet that’s precisely when caution is required, particularly when volatility is rising and risk factors are not subsiding.  What I’m about to say is not to scare, but to help prepare, you.

Recall that two years after achieving a then historic high on October 9, 2007 of 14,164.53, the Dow plunged by more than half to a March 2009 12-year low of 6,547. The value of US stocks dropped from $22 trillion to $9 trillion. Why? Because of a confluence of risk-laden events pelting people and markets. From the housing market drop, to the failure of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, to the unraveling of CDOs, to the obscene amounts of leverage and fraud everywhere, volatility escalated and liquidity and confidence dove. Banks entered self-defense mode, turning to governments and central banks for lifelines.

The fix of subsidized private banking was in. It still is – seven years later. There’s nothing comforting about that. It took another five years, until March 5, 2013 for the Dow to top 2007 levels. If you’re an individual, say with a pension or college tuition to pay, you’ve got to have an iron stomach to deal with that kind of chaos. You’re going to want to protect your money from the possibility of a next time. Now is a good time to start.

Today’s markets have not bubbled on organic or sustainable growth, they have been propped up by unprecedented, globally coordinated central bank policies that flooded the financial system with cheap money and like a giant financial vacuum cleaner hoovered up debt securities from big banks through massive (QE) easing programs.

Market volatility, though low compared to 2008 days, has nonetheless been inching up. It will continue increasing due to…

Navigating Safely In The Coming Era Of Volatility
PREVIEW by Nomi Prins

Executive Summary

  • Central planners are showing increasing signs of insecurity in their ability to maintain control
  • Credit default risk is on the rise
  • So are geo-political and economic risks
  • Manipulation continues to muddy price discovery
  • Crime & fraud have rotted the core our financial system
  • How to tread carefully in these markets

If you have not yet read Part 1: 4 Factors Signaling Volatility Will Return With A Vengeance available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

When stock markets keep racking up records, it’s hard to imagine steep downturns.  Yet that’s precisely when caution is required, particularly when volatility is rising and risk factors are not subsiding.  What I’m about to say is not to scare, but to help prepare, you.

Recall that two years after achieving a then historic high on October 9, 2007 of 14,164.53, the Dow plunged by more than half to a March 2009 12-year low of 6,547. The value of US stocks dropped from $22 trillion to $9 trillion. Why? Because of a confluence of risk-laden events pelting people and markets. From the housing market drop, to the failure of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, to the unraveling of CDOs, to the obscene amounts of leverage and fraud everywhere, volatility escalated and liquidity and confidence dove. Banks entered self-defense mode, turning to governments and central banks for lifelines.

The fix of subsidized private banking was in. It still is – seven years later. There’s nothing comforting about that. It took another five years, until March 5, 2013 for the Dow to top 2007 levels. If you’re an individual, say with a pension or college tuition to pay, you’ve got to have an iron stomach to deal with that kind of chaos. You’re going to want to protect your money from the possibility of a next time. Now is a good time to start.

Today’s markets have not bubbled on organic or sustainable growth, they have been propped up by unprecedented, globally coordinated central bank policies that flooded the financial system with cheap money and like a giant financial vacuum cleaner hoovered up debt securities from big banks through massive (QE) easing programs.

Market volatility, though low compared to 2008 days, has nonetheless been inching up. It will continue increasing due to…

Total 3393 items