page-loading-spinner

Nomi Prins

Executive Summary

  • The biggest Mexico risk factors investors need to watch
    • Remittance risk
    • Currency risk
    • Capital flight risk
    • Oil price risk
    • Debt risk
  • What Mexico must prioritize going forward to secure its future

If you have not yet read Part 1: Trouble South Of The Border available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump has nabbed many a headline with his disparaging remarks on how Mexico is sending ‘bad’ Mexicans over the border to ostensibly steal US jobs and sell drugs. He has called US leaders ‘stupid’ for letting this happen. The truth of the US-Mexico economic relationship is entirely different.

According to Pew Research, between 2005 and 2010, 1.4 million immigrants moved back to Mexico from the US, 90 percent of them voluntarily.  The total amount of 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants to the US has remained stable, not increased, over the past five years, having risen from about 3.5 million in 1990 to a peak of 12.2 million in 2007. The figure dropped between 2007-09, mainly due to a decrease in immigration from Mexico. Since 2009, an average of about 350,000 new unauthorized immigrants have entered the US annually, of which less than a third are from Mexico, compared to one half before the financial crisis of 2008. (Source)

There are other misunderstandings about the economic and financial relationship between the US and Mexico that transcend raising constituent anger about faux population movements. There is the matter of…

Is Mexico The Next Greece?
PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • The biggest Mexico risk factors investors need to watch
    • Remittance risk
    • Currency risk
    • Capital flight risk
    • Oil price risk
    • Debt risk
  • What Mexico must prioritize going forward to secure its future

If you have not yet read Part 1: Trouble South Of The Border available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump has nabbed many a headline with his disparaging remarks on how Mexico is sending ‘bad’ Mexicans over the border to ostensibly steal US jobs and sell drugs. He has called US leaders ‘stupid’ for letting this happen. The truth of the US-Mexico economic relationship is entirely different.

According to Pew Research, between 2005 and 2010, 1.4 million immigrants moved back to Mexico from the US, 90 percent of them voluntarily.  The total amount of 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants to the US has remained stable, not increased, over the past five years, having risen from about 3.5 million in 1990 to a peak of 12.2 million in 2007. The figure dropped between 2007-09, mainly due to a decrease in immigration from Mexico. Since 2009, an average of about 350,000 new unauthorized immigrants have entered the US annually, of which less than a third are from Mexico, compared to one half before the financial crisis of 2008. (Source)

There are other misunderstandings about the economic and financial relationship between the US and Mexico that transcend raising constituent anger about faux population movements. There is the matter of…

Executive Summary

  • The banking system runs on liquidity
  • Banks will do anything to keep it flowing — including raiding their depositors
  • The risks of a global liquidity crunch are dangerously high today
  • Why extracting physical cash from the system is highly advised

If you have not yet read Part 1: In A World Of Artificial Liquidity – Cash Is King available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

It's All About Liquidity For The Banks

Liquidity is the buzz-word that central banks used to justify their policies of keeping short term rates at zero (give or take) percent and buying bonds from banks in return for giving them more of it. Central banks say their primary responsibility is to balance full employment with low inflation, but that’s just code for being able to keep the largest banks solvent in times of emergency by all means possible. This current emergency has lasted nearly seven years and counting.  

Here are my laws of liquidity behavior:

The first law of liquidity – when it is most needed, it will be least available.

The second law of liquidity – the easier it is to get, the less value it holds for the recipient.

The third law of liquidity – the harder it is to find, the greater its systemic cost.

Banks gain on multiple fronts from “accommodative” monetary policy with respect to their liquidity needs. First, they can borrow money at next to nothing. Second, they can hoard that extra cash under the guise of complying with capital reserve requirements and get brownie points for passing stress tests because they are holding the cash or high quality assets bought with the cash, that central banks provided them to begin with. Third, they can sell bonds they don’t want or need at full value to central banks, and afterwards mark similar bonds at higher levels than the market would otherwise value them.

This is all shell-game finance. It is why people should be diligent about…

They’re Coming For Your Cash
PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • The banking system runs on liquidity
  • Banks will do anything to keep it flowing — including raiding their depositors
  • The risks of a global liquidity crunch are dangerously high today
  • Why extracting physical cash from the system is highly advised

If you have not yet read Part 1: In A World Of Artificial Liquidity – Cash Is King available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

It's All About Liquidity For The Banks

Liquidity is the buzz-word that central banks used to justify their policies of keeping short term rates at zero (give or take) percent and buying bonds from banks in return for giving them more of it. Central banks say their primary responsibility is to balance full employment with low inflation, but that’s just code for being able to keep the largest banks solvent in times of emergency by all means possible. This current emergency has lasted nearly seven years and counting.  

Here are my laws of liquidity behavior:

The first law of liquidity – when it is most needed, it will be least available.

The second law of liquidity – the easier it is to get, the less value it holds for the recipient.

The third law of liquidity – the harder it is to find, the greater its systemic cost.

Banks gain on multiple fronts from “accommodative” monetary policy with respect to their liquidity needs. First, they can borrow money at next to nothing. Second, they can hoard that extra cash under the guise of complying with capital reserve requirements and get brownie points for passing stress tests because they are holding the cash or high quality assets bought with the cash, that central banks provided them to begin with. Third, they can sell bonds they don’t want or need at full value to central banks, and afterwards mark similar bonds at higher levels than the market would otherwise value them.

This is all shell-game finance. It is why people should be diligent about…

Executive Summary

  • Central planners are showing increasing signs of insecurity in their ability to maintain control
  • Credit default risk is on the rise
  • So are geo-political and economic risks
  • Manipulation continues to muddy price discovery
  • Crime & fraud have rotted the core our financial system
  • How to tread carefully in these markets

If you have not yet read Part 1: 4 Factors Signaling Volatility Will Return With A Vengeance available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

When stock markets keep racking up records, it’s hard to imagine steep downturns.  Yet that’s precisely when caution is required, particularly when volatility is rising and risk factors are not subsiding.  What I’m about to say is not to scare, but to help prepare, you.

Recall that two years after achieving a then historic high on October 9, 2007 of 14,164.53, the Dow plunged by more than half to a March 2009 12-year low of 6,547. The value of US stocks dropped from $22 trillion to $9 trillion. Why? Because of a confluence of risk-laden events pelting people and markets. From the housing market drop, to the failure of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, to the unraveling of CDOs, to the obscene amounts of leverage and fraud everywhere, volatility escalated and liquidity and confidence dove. Banks entered self-defense mode, turning to governments and central banks for lifelines.

The fix of subsidized private banking was in. It still is – seven years later. There’s nothing comforting about that. It took another five years, until March 5, 2013 for the Dow to top 2007 levels. If you’re an individual, say with a pension or college tuition to pay, you’ve got to have an iron stomach to deal with that kind of chaos. You’re going to want to protect your money from the possibility of a next time. Now is a good time to start.

Today’s markets have not bubbled on organic or sustainable growth, they have been propped up by unprecedented, globally coordinated central bank policies that flooded the financial system with cheap money and like a giant financial vacuum cleaner hoovered up debt securities from big banks through massive (QE) easing programs.

Market volatility, though low compared to 2008 days, has nonetheless been inching up. It will continue increasing due to…

Navigating Safely In The Coming Era Of Volatility
PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Central planners are showing increasing signs of insecurity in their ability to maintain control
  • Credit default risk is on the rise
  • So are geo-political and economic risks
  • Manipulation continues to muddy price discovery
  • Crime & fraud have rotted the core our financial system
  • How to tread carefully in these markets

If you have not yet read Part 1: 4 Factors Signaling Volatility Will Return With A Vengeance available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

When stock markets keep racking up records, it’s hard to imagine steep downturns.  Yet that’s precisely when caution is required, particularly when volatility is rising and risk factors are not subsiding.  What I’m about to say is not to scare, but to help prepare, you.

Recall that two years after achieving a then historic high on October 9, 2007 of 14,164.53, the Dow plunged by more than half to a March 2009 12-year low of 6,547. The value of US stocks dropped from $22 trillion to $9 trillion. Why? Because of a confluence of risk-laden events pelting people and markets. From the housing market drop, to the failure of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, to the unraveling of CDOs, to the obscene amounts of leverage and fraud everywhere, volatility escalated and liquidity and confidence dove. Banks entered self-defense mode, turning to governments and central banks for lifelines.

The fix of subsidized private banking was in. It still is – seven years later. There’s nothing comforting about that. It took another five years, until March 5, 2013 for the Dow to top 2007 levels. If you’re an individual, say with a pension or college tuition to pay, you’ve got to have an iron stomach to deal with that kind of chaos. You’re going to want to protect your money from the possibility of a next time. Now is a good time to start.

Today’s markets have not bubbled on organic or sustainable growth, they have been propped up by unprecedented, globally coordinated central bank policies that flooded the financial system with cheap money and like a giant financial vacuum cleaner hoovered up debt securities from big banks through massive (QE) easing programs.

Market volatility, though low compared to 2008 days, has nonetheless been inching up. It will continue increasing due to…

Total 6 items