Retail Sales Winner, SPR Refilled, and an Ebola Lab Leak??

There were just 2 reports this week, alongside the things I usually track:

• Retail Sales (RSAFS): +0.19% m/m, prior +0.51%m/m, +1.49% y/y. Recessionary.
• Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.54% m/m, prior -0.46% m/m, -0.45% y/y. Recessionary.
• Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -22B (-0.27%) w/w, prior -0.02% w/w. Deflationary.
• Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): +7.7B (+0.05%) m/m, +0.1% y/y. Deflationary.

This week we saw a barely-above-zero retail sales number, falling industrial production (which topped out back in 2022), and a slight rise in bank credit which did not rescue the series from its 1-year deflationary track. Meanwhile, the Fed is continuing QT, mostly by dumping its Treasury bonds.  Overall, it doesn’t look great.

One interesting detail from Retail Sales: one of the big positive categories this month was “Nonstore Retailers” which rose 2.2B (+1.94%) m/m – a big gain, given the entire retail category rose just 1.34B (+0.19%). A chart below lays out the huge Retail Sales Lockdown Winner – the wealth-transfer from Mom & Pop to Oligarch Bezos.  We knew this, but I thought it was a nifty receipt to provide.  FRED: RSNSR.

I am also tracking the UPS strike, which is coming up at the end of July. For “some reason”, it isn’t getting the same treatment as the rail strike last December.

Then: Biden Signs Bill Blocking US Railroad Strike (Source – Pfizer/Reuters)

Now: UPS workers poised for biggest U.S. strike in 60 years. (Source – CBS);

Perhaps the Biden-Handlers want this one to happen?

Reading the CBS article, it sure sounds like the UPS workers need to be physically fit to work the job; how many UPS workers have become seriously disabled by Climate Change over the past 2.5 years? If only there were a group of unemployed military-aged men standing by to jump in and help out…

The buck recovered somewhat from last week’s big breakdown; it rose 1.19 (+1.20%) to 100.80, rising 4 out of 5 days, with the largest rally on Thursday. Is everything all better? Technically, no. The buck needs a close above 103 (the previous lower-high) to signal any sort of longer-term recovery.