Consumer Economy
- Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER) 323.8B +16.2B (+5.27% m/m) (prior -2.09% m/m)
- Producer Prices (PPIACO) 260.7 -0.67 (-0.26% m/m) (prior +0.24% m/m)
- University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT) 52.9 +1.90 (+3.73%)
PPI has been moving slowly lower for the past 4 months. Not inflationary.
Durable Goods (New Orders) rose fairly strongly; this suggests positive economic results ahead. AI data center buildout, perhaps?
Consumer Sentiment (at 52.9) rose, but is still just slightly above all-time lows. The little people think they’re in a bad recession already.
Credit & Rates
- Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR) 19.12T +73.5B (+0.39% w/w) (prior +0.29% w/w)
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) 6.59T +3.0B (+0.05% w/w) (prior +0.04% w/w)
- US 30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US) 6.10% +1 bp
- 3-Month Treasury (DGS3MO) 3.66% -4 bp
- 1-Year Treasury (DGS1) 3.48% -5 bp
- 10-Year Treasury (DGS10) 4.26% +2 bp
- 20+ Treasury ETF (TLT.N) -0.91% w/w (prior +0.15% w/w)
Bank credit expanded strongly again this week (+0.39% = 20% annualized). No recession – that’s inflationary. Year over year, bank credit is now above 6%. Chris’s new Renaissance Report on banking and money creation helps explain why I watch bank credit every single week – it doesn’t pinpoint who is borrowing, it is a system-level diagnostic.
No material money printing by the Fed this week (+3B = 2.6% annualized).
Mostly, short-term rates fell [hints of a rate cut next month?], while longer-term rates increased. The 30-year took the biggest hit – it saw a 7 bp increase. That rate increase caused TLT to drop.
No rate increase at the Fed meeting. Powell had his press conference on Wednesday, in which he told everyone just how amazing the Fed staff were. Powell’s term expires in May. There were also lots of questions that he refused to answer. One, right at the end, talked about gold. I’ve never heard anyone [dare to] ask Powell about gold until this week.
by scohodatt-net