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by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The critical value of scarcity
  • Understanding the utility of the blockchain
  • Will (can?) governments ban cryptocurrencies?
  • A coming geometric explosion in the price of cryptocurrency?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Understanding The Cryptocurrency Boom available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we surveyed the exciting but confusing speculative boom phase of cryptocurrencies. Here in Part 2, we will contextualize this mad swirl by running it through two filters: scarcity and utility.

What’s Scarce? Scarcity Creates Value

Regardless of one’s economic ideology or system, scarcity creates value and abundance destroys value.  When we say supply and demand, we’re really talking about scarcity and abundance and the rise or fall of demand for the commodity, good or service.

In classical economic theory, scarcity is met with substitution: ground beef too expensive due to relative scarcity? Buy ground turkey instead.

But this model has weaknesses.  There aren’t always substitutes, or the substitutes are more expensive or problematic than what is now scarce.

As a general rule, profits flow to any scarcity of goods and services with high utility value.  We value what’s scarce and useful, and place little value on what’s abundant and of limited utility.

Currency has three basic functions: a store of value (it will retain its purchasing power over time), means of exchange (we can use it to trade goods and services, pay debts, etc.) and as an accounting mechanism to track assets, debts, income, expenses and exchanges/trades.

We assume all currency has this function, but only currency that is easily divisible and easily tradable enables easy accounting.  If a notched stick is a unit of currency, and one stick buys a pig, what do I use for purchases smaller than a pig?

In today’s world, a currency must be….

The Value Drivers Of Cryptocurrency
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The critical value of scarcity
  • Understanding the utility of the blockchain
  • Will (can?) governments ban cryptocurrencies?
  • A coming geometric explosion in the price of cryptocurrency?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Understanding The Cryptocurrency Boom available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we surveyed the exciting but confusing speculative boom phase of cryptocurrencies. Here in Part 2, we will contextualize this mad swirl by running it through two filters: scarcity and utility.

What’s Scarce? Scarcity Creates Value

Regardless of one’s economic ideology or system, scarcity creates value and abundance destroys value.  When we say supply and demand, we’re really talking about scarcity and abundance and the rise or fall of demand for the commodity, good or service.

In classical economic theory, scarcity is met with substitution: ground beef too expensive due to relative scarcity? Buy ground turkey instead.

But this model has weaknesses.  There aren’t always substitutes, or the substitutes are more expensive or problematic than what is now scarce.

As a general rule, profits flow to any scarcity of goods and services with high utility value.  We value what’s scarce and useful, and place little value on what’s abundant and of limited utility.

Currency has three basic functions: a store of value (it will retain its purchasing power over time), means of exchange (we can use it to trade goods and services, pay debts, etc.) and as an accounting mechanism to track assets, debts, income, expenses and exchanges/trades.

We assume all currency has this function, but only currency that is easily divisible and easily tradable enables easy accounting.  If a notched stick is a unit of currency, and one stick buys a pig, what do I use for purchases smaller than a pig?

In today’s world, a currency must be….

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • The case of the missing credit impulse
  • The credit impulse is the worst its been in recent history
  • How the situation is deteriorating fast
  • Why a credit impulse-driven recession is nigh

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The Case Of The Missing Credit Impulse

An enormous oversight of nearly every major economist is the role of debt in both fostering current growth but also stealing from future growth. 

It seems like such a simple concept, and it’s one I covered in great detail back in 2008 in the original Crash Course, but it remains a mysterious oversight of most here in 2017.  The concept is easy enough; if I borrow money to increase my spending here today, it probably makes sense to take note of that if you're an economist responsible for tracking spending.

My debt-funded spending today is my lack of spending in the future when I pay down the debt. 

Professor Steve Keen has this topic nailed beautifully. In it, he explains how even simply keeping a massive pile of previously accumulated debt at the same level as last year is a net negative on economic growth. A very simple and a very profound concept that still is not a part of conventional thinking.

Now here where things get interesting. And frightening. If we look at…

Everything You Need To Know About The Credit Impulse
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • The case of the missing credit impulse
  • The credit impulse is the worst its been in recent history
  • How the situation is deteriorating fast
  • Why a credit impulse-driven recession is nigh

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The Case Of The Missing Credit Impulse

An enormous oversight of nearly every major economist is the role of debt in both fostering current growth but also stealing from future growth. 

It seems like such a simple concept, and it’s one I covered in great detail back in 2008 in the original Crash Course, but it remains a mysterious oversight of most here in 2017.  The concept is easy enough; if I borrow money to increase my spending here today, it probably makes sense to take note of that if you're an economist responsible for tracking spending.

My debt-funded spending today is my lack of spending in the future when I pay down the debt. 

Professor Steve Keen has this topic nailed beautifully. In it, he explains how even simply keeping a massive pile of previously accumulated debt at the same level as last year is a net negative on economic growth. A very simple and a very profound concept that still is not a part of conventional thinking.

Now here where things get interesting. And frightening. If we look at…

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • The economic data is getting darker fast
  • The over-indebtedness of the economy is the worst it's ever been
  • Predicting the timing of the next major market correction
  • As the risks mount, what should the concerned investor do?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The Data Says…Another Downturn Is Upon Us

Our view is that a massive market correction is coming, one that may well rip the financial markets apart, and cause very long-term and long lasting damage, possibly to the point of taking generations to repair in any meaningful sense.

In fact things may never actually recover to the current heights because recovery requires energy and there simply isn’t the net energy per capita that existed in the past.

For now, we see plenty of signs of fundamental economic weakness, and this is not surprising at this stage of the so-called economic expansion.  The truth is this expansion has been phony to a large degree, and quite probably should have broken down many times in the past, most recently in early 2016.

But the central banks prevented that and we can all feel thankful at the extra time that has provided us to become more resilient under reasonably calm circumstances.

And yet, the one thing that central banks have never been able to do is…

 

Get Ready For The Coming Massive Correction
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • The economic data is getting darker fast
  • The over-indebtedness of the economy is the worst it's ever been
  • Predicting the timing of the next major market correction
  • As the risks mount, what should the concerned investor do?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The Data Says…Another Downturn Is Upon Us

Our view is that a massive market correction is coming, one that may well rip the financial markets apart, and cause very long-term and long lasting damage, possibly to the point of taking generations to repair in any meaningful sense.

In fact things may never actually recover to the current heights because recovery requires energy and there simply isn’t the net energy per capita that existed in the past.

For now, we see plenty of signs of fundamental economic weakness, and this is not surprising at this stage of the so-called economic expansion.  The truth is this expansion has been phony to a large degree, and quite probably should have broken down many times in the past, most recently in early 2016.

But the central banks prevented that and we can all feel thankful at the extra time that has provided us to become more resilient under reasonably calm circumstances.

And yet, the one thing that central banks have never been able to do is…

 

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Why the Fed’s rate hikes are not actual “hikes”
  • The new debt issuance directly or indirectly enabled by the Fed is staggeringly large
  • Why the Fed’s intervention in the financial markets is creating worrisome instability
  • As the risks mount, what should the concerned investor do?

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Federal Reserve Is Destroying America available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

When Is A Rate Hike Not A Rate Hike?

The Fed keeps talking about raising interest rates, but they really aren’t doing any such thing.  In fact they are doing the opposite.

I know that’s a controversial statement, so let me explain.  The point of a ‘rate hike’ is not to make the cost of money (interest rates) go up, but to drain excess money from the system.  That’s why a rate hike cycle is called a ‘tightening’ cycle; because it is making the amount of money available for lending to shrink, or for conditions to become tighter.  The same as if you don’t have quite enough money at the end of the month, things are tight.

This means that the interest rate is the derivative, and the amount of money is the main driver.  You don’t set interest rates, you control the amount of money in the system, and the interest rates follow along.  They are the result, not the cause.

Or at least that’s how it used to be.  But not any longer.

In the past, when the Fed ‘hiked rates’ what it actually did was drain money from the system.   Money out = interest rates up.

Now when the Fed hikes rates it removes zero money in the system, and this is why a rate hike is not actually a rate hike at all, but the opposite because it leaves 100% of the money in the system but raises the amount that banks and other financial institutions can charge you for new loans and outstanding credit.

How did we get to this ‘upside down world’ where a rate hike increases money?

To understand let’s be sure we are clear on…

Understanding The Fed’s Endgame Is Key To Protecting Your Wealth
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Why the Fed’s rate hikes are not actual “hikes”
  • The new debt issuance directly or indirectly enabled by the Fed is staggeringly large
  • Why the Fed’s intervention in the financial markets is creating worrisome instability
  • As the risks mount, what should the concerned investor do?

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Federal Reserve Is Destroying America available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

When Is A Rate Hike Not A Rate Hike?

The Fed keeps talking about raising interest rates, but they really aren’t doing any such thing.  In fact they are doing the opposite.

I know that’s a controversial statement, so let me explain.  The point of a ‘rate hike’ is not to make the cost of money (interest rates) go up, but to drain excess money from the system.  That’s why a rate hike cycle is called a ‘tightening’ cycle; because it is making the amount of money available for lending to shrink, or for conditions to become tighter.  The same as if you don’t have quite enough money at the end of the month, things are tight.

This means that the interest rate is the derivative, and the amount of money is the main driver.  You don’t set interest rates, you control the amount of money in the system, and the interest rates follow along.  They are the result, not the cause.

Or at least that’s how it used to be.  But not any longer.

In the past, when the Fed ‘hiked rates’ what it actually did was drain money from the system.   Money out = interest rates up.

Now when the Fed hikes rates it removes zero money in the system, and this is why a rate hike is not actually a rate hike at all, but the opposite because it leaves 100% of the money in the system but raises the amount that banks and other financial institutions can charge you for new loans and outstanding credit.

How did we get to this ‘upside down world’ where a rate hike increases money?

To understand let’s be sure we are clear on…

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The repercussions of the Fed's Free Money Machine
  • Why debt-funded state control stagnates productivity
  • The importance of the 8-year cycle
  • What should guide investors' focus and decisions

If you have not yet read Part 1: How Long Can The Great Global Reflation Continue? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we asked these questions: can we just keep doubling and tripling the economy’s debt load every few years? What if household incomes continue declining? Are these trends sustainable?

In the near-term, we asked: is this Great Reflation running out of steam, or is it poised for yet another leg higher? Which is more likely?

Let’s start by looking at the mechanism that funds the government’s deficit spending, i.e. its ability to borrow and spend enormous sums of money year after year.

The Free Money Machine

The state can afford to continue or increase fiscal stimulus (deficit spending) because the central bank (the Federal Reserve) has created what amounts to a free money machine. Here’s how the machine works.

The federal government issues $1 trillion in new bonds to fund another $1 trillion in deficit spending. The central bank (Federal Reserve) creates $1 trillion with a few keystrokes, and buys the $1 trillion in bonds with newly created money.

The Federal Reserve earns interest on the $1 trillion in bonds it now owns, but it returns this income to the Treasury, minus the Federal Reserve’s relatively modest expenses of operation. Let’s say the bonds carry an interest rate of 2.5%.  The government pays the Federal Reserve $25 billion in annual interest, and the Federal Reserve returns $20 billion annually, so the net cost of borrowing and spending $1 trillion is an insignificant $5 billion.

If this isn’t entirely free money, it’s extremely close to free money.

So in ten years, the Federal Reserve owns $10 trillion more in federal bonds (assuming the bonds are long-term and didn’t mature).

It's no wonder that some economist propose…

Prepare For The Great Global Contraction
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The repercussions of the Fed's Free Money Machine
  • Why debt-funded state control stagnates productivity
  • The importance of the 8-year cycle
  • What should guide investors' focus and decisions

If you have not yet read Part 1: How Long Can The Great Global Reflation Continue? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we asked these questions: can we just keep doubling and tripling the economy’s debt load every few years? What if household incomes continue declining? Are these trends sustainable?

In the near-term, we asked: is this Great Reflation running out of steam, or is it poised for yet another leg higher? Which is more likely?

Let’s start by looking at the mechanism that funds the government’s deficit spending, i.e. its ability to borrow and spend enormous sums of money year after year.

The Free Money Machine

The state can afford to continue or increase fiscal stimulus (deficit spending) because the central bank (the Federal Reserve) has created what amounts to a free money machine. Here’s how the machine works.

The federal government issues $1 trillion in new bonds to fund another $1 trillion in deficit spending. The central bank (Federal Reserve) creates $1 trillion with a few keystrokes, and buys the $1 trillion in bonds with newly created money.

The Federal Reserve earns interest on the $1 trillion in bonds it now owns, but it returns this income to the Treasury, minus the Federal Reserve’s relatively modest expenses of operation. Let’s say the bonds carry an interest rate of 2.5%.  The government pays the Federal Reserve $25 billion in annual interest, and the Federal Reserve returns $20 billion annually, so the net cost of borrowing and spending $1 trillion is an insignificant $5 billion.

If this isn’t entirely free money, it’s extremely close to free money.

So in ten years, the Federal Reserve owns $10 trillion more in federal bonds (assuming the bonds are long-term and didn’t mature).

It's no wonder that some economist propose…

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Understanding The Ego & How It Can Be Manipulated
  • Shifting Our Own Minds
  • Creating A World Worth Inheriting
  • Becoming The Change We Wish To See

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Way To Save Ourselves available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In beginning to tackle this big topic, first, let's take a closer look at the ego.

The Ego

Humans are indeed set apart from the other sentient species on the planet such as dogs, elephants, whales, and dolphins. But what makes us 'special’ is not the use of language or tools. Plenty of other animals make use of both.  Humans seem to be unique in having an ego. 

The ego is the part of the mind we interact with (almost) entirely each day. It mediates between the conscious and unconscious parts of ourselves, and is how we interact with the world. It forms our sense of personal identity.  For most people it's a fair statement to say they are their ego.  They identify with it fully, just as I did with mine until not that long ago.

The ego thinks, assumes, that it is everything about you

One feature of the ego is that it is always, and forever, in a state of wanting.  It needs more and more and MORE all the time.  The ego sets goals and attains them, but is rarely if ever satisfied by reaching a goal.  If it obtains one, it immediately sets a new one. Therefore it remains in a perpetual state of wanting as it strives towards each new goal.

Ekhart Tolle, who has had a huge impact on my thinking, puts it this way…

How To Be
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Understanding The Ego & How It Can Be Manipulated
  • Shifting Our Own Minds
  • Creating A World Worth Inheriting
  • Becoming The Change We Wish To See

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Way To Save Ourselves available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In beginning to tackle this big topic, first, let's take a closer look at the ego.

The Ego

Humans are indeed set apart from the other sentient species on the planet such as dogs, elephants, whales, and dolphins. But what makes us 'special’ is not the use of language or tools. Plenty of other animals make use of both.  Humans seem to be unique in having an ego. 

The ego is the part of the mind we interact with (almost) entirely each day. It mediates between the conscious and unconscious parts of ourselves, and is how we interact with the world. It forms our sense of personal identity.  For most people it's a fair statement to say they are their ego.  They identify with it fully, just as I did with mine until not that long ago.

The ego thinks, assumes, that it is everything about you

One feature of the ego is that it is always, and forever, in a state of wanting.  It needs more and more and MORE all the time.  The ego sets goals and attains them, but is rarely if ever satisfied by reaching a goal.  If it obtains one, it immediately sets a new one. Therefore it remains in a perpetual state of wanting as it strives towards each new goal.

Ekhart Tolle, who has had a huge impact on my thinking, puts it this way…

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Have overt central bank propping efforts created a bubble in asset prices?
  • Will these overinflated markets EVER collapse?
  • What to expect when today's smoke turns into tomorrow's conflagration
  • Which assets are most sensitive to a price correction if the central banks' efforts fail?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Where there’s smoke… available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Question #2: How much does overt central bank propping have to do with their elevated prices?

Overt propping of the stock and bond markets also happens with some regularity.  First, at the macro level, dumping hundreds of billions of freshly printed currency units into the financial markets each month without any question whatsoever, plays a huge role in keeping them elevated.

One the one hand you have the central banks talking at every turn about how they are confident in the economy, that they feel the data is good, if not solid, and yet you have them dumping money into the financial “”markets”” (double quote marks because one is no longer sufficient to convey how unreal they’ve become) at the fastest pace in all of recorded history through the first 4 months of 2017; $1 trillion dollars(!!).

 height=(Source)

If you were wondering why these markets are having such a difficult time going down, $250 billion a month goes a long way towards helping you appreciate why that’s the case.

It’s an astonishing number, and I want you to appreciate the fact that central banks would not be dumping record amounts of thin-air money into the ““markets””

The next point is that…

The Coming Conflagration
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Have overt central bank propping efforts created a bubble in asset prices?
  • Will these overinflated markets EVER collapse?
  • What to expect when today's smoke turns into tomorrow's conflagration
  • Which assets are most sensitive to a price correction if the central banks' efforts fail?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Where there’s smoke… available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Question #2: How much does overt central bank propping have to do with their elevated prices?

Overt propping of the stock and bond markets also happens with some regularity.  First, at the macro level, dumping hundreds of billions of freshly printed currency units into the financial markets each month without any question whatsoever, plays a huge role in keeping them elevated.

One the one hand you have the central banks talking at every turn about how they are confident in the economy, that they feel the data is good, if not solid, and yet you have them dumping money into the financial “”markets”” (double quote marks because one is no longer sufficient to convey how unreal they’ve become) at the fastest pace in all of recorded history through the first 4 months of 2017; $1 trillion dollars(!!).

 height=(Source)

If you were wondering why these markets are having such a difficult time going down, $250 billion a month goes a long way towards helping you appreciate why that’s the case.

It’s an astonishing number, and I want you to appreciate the fact that central banks would not be dumping record amounts of thin-air money into the ““markets””

The next point is that…

by Adam Taggart

For the next few days (until we fly back for this year's Peak Prosperity seminar), Chris and I will be attending the Summit At Sea, an exclusive investment conference produced by Robert Helms and Russell Grey, aka. The Real Estate Guys.

Wi-fi and power access depending, we are live blogging here the insights we're learning from our fellow speakers over the next few days.

Summit At Sea: Liveblog
PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

For the next few days (until we fly back for this year's Peak Prosperity seminar), Chris and I will be attending the Summit At Sea, an exclusive investment conference produced by Robert Helms and Russell Grey, aka. The Real Estate Guys.

Wi-fi and power access depending, we are live blogging here the insights we're learning from our fellow speakers over the next few days.

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Why economic growth is not going to ride to the rescue
  • The alarming warning signs the auto, fine art, retail & housing industries are flashing now
  • The actions you should be taking now to protect yourself from (and position for) the coming crash

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why This Market Needs To Crash  available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Sometimes I wonder if I'm ever going to run out of new things to say about the state of the world, especially economics.  The more obvious our predicaments become to me, the less appetite there seems to be ‘out there’ to discuss them.

What more can be said about a system that is so obviously corrupt and destined to fail, and piles up more and more evidence that this is the case, and yet refuses to engage in the most minimal of introspection? 

Well, lots as it turns out. 

You see, we're finally getting to beginning of the end.  Our long national — and global — experiment with using flawed economic models is now running smack dab into reality.

The edifice of central planning omnipotence is crumbling and when it finally breaks down in earnest, the financial markets will implode, the central banks will be overrun and discredited, and investors will discover that overly-long parties come with massive hangovers.

There will be hell to pay.

For reasons we have discussed previously, and extensively,  GDP growth has not been a feature of the world stage for over a decade, and is unlikely to return both because of debt levels that are far too high to support rapid growth and because any return of rapid growth will run smack into higher oil prices.

So…how’s that story working out?  Not so hot.  It’s been sub-par on a global scale for more than a decade. And the same is true for the US.

And here’s where we are today…

 

Positioning Yourself For The Crash
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Why economic growth is not going to ride to the rescue
  • The alarming warning signs the auto, fine art, retail & housing industries are flashing now
  • The actions you should be taking now to protect yourself from (and position for) the coming crash

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why This Market Needs To Crash  available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Sometimes I wonder if I'm ever going to run out of new things to say about the state of the world, especially economics.  The more obvious our predicaments become to me, the less appetite there seems to be ‘out there’ to discuss them.

What more can be said about a system that is so obviously corrupt and destined to fail, and piles up more and more evidence that this is the case, and yet refuses to engage in the most minimal of introspection? 

Well, lots as it turns out. 

You see, we're finally getting to beginning of the end.  Our long national — and global — experiment with using flawed economic models is now running smack dab into reality.

The edifice of central planning omnipotence is crumbling and when it finally breaks down in earnest, the financial markets will implode, the central banks will be overrun and discredited, and investors will discover that overly-long parties come with massive hangovers.

There will be hell to pay.

For reasons we have discussed previously, and extensively,  GDP growth has not been a feature of the world stage for over a decade, and is unlikely to return both because of debt levels that are far too high to support rapid growth and because any return of rapid growth will run smack into higher oil prices.

So…how’s that story working out?  Not so hot.  It’s been sub-par on a global scale for more than a decade. And the same is true for the US.

And here’s where we are today…

 

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