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by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Understanding the details of the Ka-POOM! theory
  • The end game: hyperinflation
  • Transitioning to tangible (vs paper) assets
  • The critical importance of timing as things switch from deflation to runaway inflation

If you have not yet read Part 1: When This All Blows Up,  available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Ka-POOM!

Now it’s time to revisit the Ka-POOM theory which posits that bubbles will be blown, then they will deflate (or threaten to, more precisely), and that will then be met with more money printing.  Our view is that this cycle will continue until the entire system is utterly ruined, the underlying currencies destroyed.

What the 2008 financial crisis made clear is that when natural market forces work to purge the oversupply of poor-quality debt from the system. The bad mortgages (think subprime), the bad sovereign debts (think Greece), and the loan portfolios of over-extended financial institutions (think Citibank) represented ‘poor quality debt.’  When the market (finally) figured out that those debts would never be repaid at face value, or perhaps at all, turmoil erupted.

During times like these a vicious sequence begins: the market demands higher interest rates for the increased risks it sees. This makes debts harder to service, ultimately triggering defaults, which only compounds the difficulties as interest costs and defaults spiral ever upwards until the system is purged.  Think of it as nature’s way of removing bad credit from the world, the way a lion chases the lamest antelope first.

Because in our fiat currency system ‘all money is loaned into existence’ (see chapters 7 and 8 of The Crash Course on-line video series), during periods of high debt default, the money supply shrinks. Money is created when a loan is made and, conversely, money disappears when a debt defaults (or is paid back). This is the textbook definition of deflation—a common symptom of which is falling prices the cause of which is that there’s just less money (and/or credit) available to chase goods and services.

As a reminder, money is a claim on real wealth and debt is a claim on future money.  All that happens when we borrow more and more is that we push our problems of paying for what we want out into the future.  Which means that…

The Ka-POOM! Survival Guide
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Understanding the details of the Ka-POOM! theory
  • The end game: hyperinflation
  • Transitioning to tangible (vs paper) assets
  • The critical importance of timing as things switch from deflation to runaway inflation

If you have not yet read Part 1: When This All Blows Up,  available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Ka-POOM!

Now it’s time to revisit the Ka-POOM theory which posits that bubbles will be blown, then they will deflate (or threaten to, more precisely), and that will then be met with more money printing.  Our view is that this cycle will continue until the entire system is utterly ruined, the underlying currencies destroyed.

What the 2008 financial crisis made clear is that when natural market forces work to purge the oversupply of poor-quality debt from the system. The bad mortgages (think subprime), the bad sovereign debts (think Greece), and the loan portfolios of over-extended financial institutions (think Citibank) represented ‘poor quality debt.’  When the market (finally) figured out that those debts would never be repaid at face value, or perhaps at all, turmoil erupted.

During times like these a vicious sequence begins: the market demands higher interest rates for the increased risks it sees. This makes debts harder to service, ultimately triggering defaults, which only compounds the difficulties as interest costs and defaults spiral ever upwards until the system is purged.  Think of it as nature’s way of removing bad credit from the world, the way a lion chases the lamest antelope first.

Because in our fiat currency system ‘all money is loaned into existence’ (see chapters 7 and 8 of The Crash Course on-line video series), during periods of high debt default, the money supply shrinks. Money is created when a loan is made and, conversely, money disappears when a debt defaults (or is paid back). This is the textbook definition of deflation—a common symptom of which is falling prices the cause of which is that there’s just less money (and/or credit) available to chase goods and services.

As a reminder, money is a claim on real wealth and debt is a claim on future money.  All that happens when we borrow more and more is that we push our problems of paying for what we want out into the future.  Which means that…

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • There are too many claims on real wealth
  • Our currency has a destiny with the dustbin
  • When money dies, real wealth remains
  • How to ensure you're on the winning side of the Great Wealth Transfer

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Coming Great Wealth Transfer, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Financial Repression is really just a stalling tactic designed to slowly take your purchasing power and help bail out an over-indebted system.  It works best when there’s wage inflation to help soften the blows; but there hasn’t been any of that in a long time, so the average household is just being crushed — a situation easily confirmed in the observed elevated suicide rates, record opioid addiction levels and overdose rates, and ultra-low levels of job satisfaction. 

The main driver of the coming Wealth Transfer is rooted in the concept of too much money. And debt. They’re the same thing, as we have a debt-based money system. That is, our money is created through the issuance of debt.  One begets the other.  So we can track either (preferably both) to understand what’s really happening.

We do this here at Peak Prosperity because we very much want you to be on the right side of the Wealth Transfer.  Our goal is to educate, so that you can make informed decisions about how to best position yourself.  [Fun Fact: the root of ‘educate’ is the word ‘educe’ which means ‘to bring out.’  So for us, ‘educate’ does not mean to hand facts over for later recall, but rather it is a two-way process by which we can together bring out something that was hidden before and share that in common].

So, as we being to dig into the details here, take a moment to revisit our short Crash Course video chapters on money and money creation (at banks and The Fed). With that grounding, we can dive right into the role of money in an economy.

Remember, money and debt have no intrinsic value.  They only have value because we all agree that they do.  Money (and debt) has no intrinsic value beyond what we humans agree it has.  Money is a social agreement. 

A $20 bill has value because you and I agree that it does. Why we agree is because a $20 bill can do something for us. We can walk into a store and buy real things we need with it, therefore it has utility. If we couldn’t walk into a store and do anything with the money, then it would have no value at all.

For example, what do you think would happen if…

Winning The Great Wealth Transfer
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • There are too many claims on real wealth
  • Our currency has a destiny with the dustbin
  • When money dies, real wealth remains
  • How to ensure you're on the winning side of the Great Wealth Transfer

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Coming Great Wealth Transfer, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Financial Repression is really just a stalling tactic designed to slowly take your purchasing power and help bail out an over-indebted system.  It works best when there’s wage inflation to help soften the blows; but there hasn’t been any of that in a long time, so the average household is just being crushed — a situation easily confirmed in the observed elevated suicide rates, record opioid addiction levels and overdose rates, and ultra-low levels of job satisfaction. 

The main driver of the coming Wealth Transfer is rooted in the concept of too much money. And debt. They’re the same thing, as we have a debt-based money system. That is, our money is created through the issuance of debt.  One begets the other.  So we can track either (preferably both) to understand what’s really happening.

We do this here at Peak Prosperity because we very much want you to be on the right side of the Wealth Transfer.  Our goal is to educate, so that you can make informed decisions about how to best position yourself.  [Fun Fact: the root of ‘educate’ is the word ‘educe’ which means ‘to bring out.’  So for us, ‘educate’ does not mean to hand facts over for later recall, but rather it is a two-way process by which we can together bring out something that was hidden before and share that in common].

So, as we being to dig into the details here, take a moment to revisit our short Crash Course video chapters on money and money creation (at banks and The Fed). With that grounding, we can dive right into the role of money in an economy.

Remember, money and debt have no intrinsic value.  They only have value because we all agree that they do.  Money (and debt) has no intrinsic value beyond what we humans agree it has.  Money is a social agreement. 

A $20 bill has value because you and I agree that it does. Why we agree is because a $20 bill can do something for us. We can walk into a store and buy real things we need with it, therefore it has utility. If we couldn’t walk into a store and do anything with the money, then it would have no value at all.

For example, what do you think would happen if…

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • How overvalued is the system?
  • The biggest errors that got us to this point
  • What to expect during the big reset
  • Taking necessary action

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles, It's Time To Worryavailable free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

What will the coming reset look like when it finally arrives?

This is the operative question everybody should be asking themselves because, believe me, the bankers and politicians are already frantically at work on the only question they care about: Who, instead of us, is going to eat the losses?

Let me be clear. The coming reset is going to be very, very painful. Part of me just wants to rip the proverbial Band-Aid off and get on with it, yet part of me dreads what’s coming and is in no hurry to see it arrive. Talk about being ambivalent!

The big picture looks like this: Ray Dialo’s firm Bridgewater Associates, a mega-money management firm, put together the below chart of the IOUs of the US (most other countries look the same, so feel free to extrapolate for Japan, or most of the EU, or the UK).

 

There are, simply, too many promises that cannot be kept. At a recent ICV wealth conference (just this week) one of the speakers was a man named Bradley Belt, former executive director of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC).

I asked him if there were any possible solutions to the staggering risks posed by the data in this chart. And who, if anyone, is working on them?

He answered that…

How Bad Will It Get?
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • How overvalued is the system?
  • The biggest errors that got us to this point
  • What to expect during the big reset
  • Taking necessary action

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles, It's Time To Worryavailable free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

What will the coming reset look like when it finally arrives?

This is the operative question everybody should be asking themselves because, believe me, the bankers and politicians are already frantically at work on the only question they care about: Who, instead of us, is going to eat the losses?

Let me be clear. The coming reset is going to be very, very painful. Part of me just wants to rip the proverbial Band-Aid off and get on with it, yet part of me dreads what’s coming and is in no hurry to see it arrive. Talk about being ambivalent!

The big picture looks like this: Ray Dialo’s firm Bridgewater Associates, a mega-money management firm, put together the below chart of the IOUs of the US (most other countries look the same, so feel free to extrapolate for Japan, or most of the EU, or the UK).

 

There are, simply, too many promises that cannot be kept. At a recent ICV wealth conference (just this week) one of the speakers was a man named Bradley Belt, former executive director of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC).

I asked him if there were any possible solutions to the staggering risks posed by the data in this chart. And who, if anyone, is working on them?

He answered that…

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Why the woes of the middle class will worsen from here
  • The tax-burdened middle class vs the "dependent" class that pays no taxes
  • The pinched middle class vs the gluttonous plutocrats
  • How the many ensuing class wars will end

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Coming Class Wars, It's Time To Worry available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we briefly surveyed the nature of class war in advanced capitalism, starting with the Marxist analysis that such conflict was inevitable. We then moved to the present: the Grand Truce that produced the middle class is eroding, social mobility is declining, and a sharp economic and cultural chasm has opened between the unprotected working class and the protected upper-middle class.

Why Is the Middle Class Eroding?

The big question is: why is the middle class eroding? Why is the longstanding accord between labor and capital breaking down? 

Peter Turchin’s recent book Ages of Discord sheds light on the historical context.  History’s economic and social cycles can be divided into two fundamental phases: integrative eras in which cooperation between competing forces is rewarded and disintegrative eras in which cooperation dissolves into conflict and discord.

Turchin’s analysis identifies three key drivers of social and economic disintegration:

1. An over-supply of labor that suppresses real (inflation-adjusted) wages

2. An overproduction of parasitic (unproductive) Elites

3. A deterioration in central state finances (over-indebtedness, declining tax revenues, increase in state dependents, fiscal burdens of war, etc.)

 

It’s clear that globalization, open immigration and automation are generating an oversupply of labor that is suppressing wages, especially for the lower-skilled work force (the working class).

The entitled upper-middle class that expects…

The Class War Playbook
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Why the woes of the middle class will worsen from here
  • The tax-burdened middle class vs the "dependent" class that pays no taxes
  • The pinched middle class vs the gluttonous plutocrats
  • How the many ensuing class wars will end

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Coming Class Wars, It's Time To Worry available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we briefly surveyed the nature of class war in advanced capitalism, starting with the Marxist analysis that such conflict was inevitable. We then moved to the present: the Grand Truce that produced the middle class is eroding, social mobility is declining, and a sharp economic and cultural chasm has opened between the unprotected working class and the protected upper-middle class.

Why Is the Middle Class Eroding?

The big question is: why is the middle class eroding? Why is the longstanding accord between labor and capital breaking down? 

Peter Turchin’s recent book Ages of Discord sheds light on the historical context.  History’s economic and social cycles can be divided into two fundamental phases: integrative eras in which cooperation between competing forces is rewarded and disintegrative eras in which cooperation dissolves into conflict and discord.

Turchin’s analysis identifies three key drivers of social and economic disintegration:

1. An over-supply of labor that suppresses real (inflation-adjusted) wages

2. An overproduction of parasitic (unproductive) Elites

3. A deterioration in central state finances (over-indebtedness, declining tax revenues, increase in state dependents, fiscal burdens of war, etc.)

 

It’s clear that globalization, open immigration and automation are generating an oversupply of labor that is suppressing wages, especially for the lower-skilled work force (the working class).

The entitled upper-middle class that expects…

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Why most of those around you will not prepare, despite the obvious risks
  • Why the risks are bigger now than most realize
  • Positioning yourself ahead of the trend
  • The steps for prudent preparation

If you have not yet read Part 1: When The Rich Become Preppers, It’s Time To Worry available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

People Aren’t Rational

Unfortunately, very few people make decision based on logic and/or rational calculations.  Most go by emotion.   If their pre-existing belief system is confirmed by something they will do it (or buy it, or learn it) but if not, then forget it.  Data doesn’t matter.

I am sure you’ve all encountered this in your own lives, perhaps by trying to spread the warnings of The Crash Course to otherwise intelligent, thoughtful people who somehow just cannot even bring themselves to confront the troubling data.

Not because they are unable intellectually, or even that the data is all that troubling, but usually because their belief system cannot digest the information contained therein.  One of the more dominant belief systems out there is that “the government will take care of me/us.”

This is not at all surprising given that we are raised in a very structured and authoritarian educational system.  Most of us that is.  The repetition of believing that a right answer always exists at the front of the room subtly reinforces the idea that you can trust in the hierarchies present in your culture.

And so it’s not much of a stretch to then invest that same comfort of knowing in the hierarchy of the political structure, or government, too.  To attack or undermine the idea that there is a large, benevolent set of public institutions out there is to undermine the very basis of faith in authority.

That’s a biggie for most people, and not easily dislodged.  This is why it can be so difficult to get someone to even consider storing an extra months’ worth of food in their otherwise barren pantry.  It has nothing to do with cost or space…it has to do with the new belief system that  would have to be installed first which is something along the lines of “maybe the system I trust so completely is slightly untrustworthy, and the people operating are not really as in control of it as I like to think.”

And even then, it’s not that simple.  Dislodging a belief system and installing a new one is not an intellectual process, but an emotional one.  Those are expensive for people under even the best of circumstances but really quite difficult if one lives in a country where emotions are clamped down, not permitted, drugged away, or otherwise subjugated and not allow to flow freely.

The point of all this is to be able to rotate the cube a bit and ask what happens when a mass of people suddenly all decide that their existing belief system isn’t working out anymore?

The herd is now skittish as a result of the tensions which are, in my experience, as high as they have ever been across the social fabric.

Rich people are feeling nervous because…

Preparing Prudently
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Why most of those around you will not prepare, despite the obvious risks
  • Why the risks are bigger now than most realize
  • Positioning yourself ahead of the trend
  • The steps for prudent preparation

If you have not yet read Part 1: When The Rich Become Preppers, It’s Time To Worry available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

People Aren’t Rational

Unfortunately, very few people make decision based on logic and/or rational calculations.  Most go by emotion.   If their pre-existing belief system is confirmed by something they will do it (or buy it, or learn it) but if not, then forget it.  Data doesn’t matter.

I am sure you’ve all encountered this in your own lives, perhaps by trying to spread the warnings of The Crash Course to otherwise intelligent, thoughtful people who somehow just cannot even bring themselves to confront the troubling data.

Not because they are unable intellectually, or even that the data is all that troubling, but usually because their belief system cannot digest the information contained therein.  One of the more dominant belief systems out there is that “the government will take care of me/us.”

This is not at all surprising given that we are raised in a very structured and authoritarian educational system.  Most of us that is.  The repetition of believing that a right answer always exists at the front of the room subtly reinforces the idea that you can trust in the hierarchies present in your culture.

And so it’s not much of a stretch to then invest that same comfort of knowing in the hierarchy of the political structure, or government, too.  To attack or undermine the idea that there is a large, benevolent set of public institutions out there is to undermine the very basis of faith in authority.

That’s a biggie for most people, and not easily dislodged.  This is why it can be so difficult to get someone to even consider storing an extra months’ worth of food in their otherwise barren pantry.  It has nothing to do with cost or space…it has to do with the new belief system that  would have to be installed first which is something along the lines of “maybe the system I trust so completely is slightly untrustworthy, and the people operating are not really as in control of it as I like to think.”

And even then, it’s not that simple.  Dislodging a belief system and installing a new one is not an intellectual process, but an emotional one.  Those are expensive for people under even the best of circumstances but really quite difficult if one lives in a country where emotions are clamped down, not permitted, drugged away, or otherwise subjugated and not allow to flow freely.

The point of all this is to be able to rotate the cube a bit and ask what happens when a mass of people suddenly all decide that their existing belief system isn’t working out anymore?

The herd is now skittish as a result of the tensions which are, in my experience, as high as they have ever been across the social fabric.

Rich people are feeling nervous because…

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • The gigantic predicament we all face
  • What you should do, as a concerned individual
  • What WE should do, as a society
  • Contributing to the new narrative

If you have not yet read Part 1: Mad As Hell available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

It simply has to be said; there appears to be little to no public appetite for facing reality. 

At least not without some sort of a calamity or forcing function to press the issue that will wake up enough people and call out what leadership actually exists to finally step up and begin to deliver.

The many predicaments and extreme complexity require astonishingly great leadership to address and there’s really none of that to be found anywhere at the moment.

So we must adopt a two prong approach in our lives to both deal with the coming calamities and lay the groundwork for the next stage of things.

As it stands right now, the central banks are mainly interested in propping up the asset markets which is only serving to enrich the already stupendously rich with a few minor scraps for enough upper and middle class people to keep them content to play along.  While this is being done, enormous imbalances are being created even as the underlying structural issues remain unaddressed.

Some of these are even dead simple, single factor financial issues, which should be among the easiest to detect and address yet these to remain unexamined and unaddressed.  Examples include exponentially increasing debt-per-capita in Japan (goosed by demographics) and pensions being utterly gutted by too-low interest rates.

If the simple math of these situations is still too difficult and complex to allow for any sort of proper response, we have to then conclude that the more subtle and intractable and larger issues we face are even further out of reach.

Here I am talking about needing to…

Fixing The Future
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • The gigantic predicament we all face
  • What you should do, as a concerned individual
  • What WE should do, as a society
  • Contributing to the new narrative

If you have not yet read Part 1: Mad As Hell available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

It simply has to be said; there appears to be little to no public appetite for facing reality. 

At least not without some sort of a calamity or forcing function to press the issue that will wake up enough people and call out what leadership actually exists to finally step up and begin to deliver.

The many predicaments and extreme complexity require astonishingly great leadership to address and there’s really none of that to be found anywhere at the moment.

So we must adopt a two prong approach in our lives to both deal with the coming calamities and lay the groundwork for the next stage of things.

As it stands right now, the central banks are mainly interested in propping up the asset markets which is only serving to enrich the already stupendously rich with a few minor scraps for enough upper and middle class people to keep them content to play along.  While this is being done, enormous imbalances are being created even as the underlying structural issues remain unaddressed.

Some of these are even dead simple, single factor financial issues, which should be among the easiest to detect and address yet these to remain unexamined and unaddressed.  Examples include exponentially increasing debt-per-capita in Japan (goosed by demographics) and pensions being utterly gutted by too-low interest rates.

If the simple math of these situations is still too difficult and complex to allow for any sort of proper response, we have to then conclude that the more subtle and intractable and larger issues we face are even further out of reach.

Here I am talking about needing to…

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Why No Nation Truly Has Full Control Over Its Currency
  • Why Sovereign Efforts To Control Currencies Is Driving Capital Into Digital Currencies
  • The Driver's Of Digital Currency & Value
  • Calculating Bitcoin's Fair Value

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The U.S. Dollar And Bitcoin Keep Rising available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed the dynamics of demand and utility that drive the valuation of any tradeable good, service, commodity and currency.  We established that it’s impossible to understand how a fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar can retain a value above its tangible value of zero unless we accept its utility value and its non-tangible sources of value, i.e. the wealth and wealth generation of the issuing nation and state.

We now turn to the second half of the question posed in Part 1: Why isn’t the market value of a digital currency such as bitcoin zero?

Or perhaps more interestingly: How high might the price of bitcoin go?

To answer this question, we must investigate another question: Can any state control the value of its currency and its place in the global economy? I suggest the answer is no. Beneath a surface veneer of status quo continuity, nations and states are losing the ability to control their role in the global economy and thus the utility of their currency.

To understand why, we turn to socio-historian Immanuel Wallerstein.

Who Controls a Rapidly Changing World-System?

Wallerstein is recognized for advancing the concept of world-system, his term for what I call a global Mode of Production, i.e., the political, social, financial and economic system that governs the relations of power, labor, capital, trade and resources (broadly speaking, our understanding of Nature and the extraction of its resources).  In a recent essay China is Confident: How Realistic?, he observed that "countries (have lost the ability) to control what happens to them in the ongoing life of the modern world-system."

These two paragraphs get to the essence of his analysis…

Estimating Bitcoin’s Fair Value
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Why No Nation Truly Has Full Control Over Its Currency
  • Why Sovereign Efforts To Control Currencies Is Driving Capital Into Digital Currencies
  • The Driver's Of Digital Currency & Value
  • Calculating Bitcoin's Fair Value

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The U.S. Dollar And Bitcoin Keep Rising available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed the dynamics of demand and utility that drive the valuation of any tradeable good, service, commodity and currency.  We established that it’s impossible to understand how a fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar can retain a value above its tangible value of zero unless we accept its utility value and its non-tangible sources of value, i.e. the wealth and wealth generation of the issuing nation and state.

We now turn to the second half of the question posed in Part 1: Why isn’t the market value of a digital currency such as bitcoin zero?

Or perhaps more interestingly: How high might the price of bitcoin go?

To answer this question, we must investigate another question: Can any state control the value of its currency and its place in the global economy? I suggest the answer is no. Beneath a surface veneer of status quo continuity, nations and states are losing the ability to control their role in the global economy and thus the utility of their currency.

To understand why, we turn to socio-historian Immanuel Wallerstein.

Who Controls a Rapidly Changing World-System?

Wallerstein is recognized for advancing the concept of world-system, his term for what I call a global Mode of Production, i.e., the political, social, financial and economic system that governs the relations of power, labor, capital, trade and resources (broadly speaking, our understanding of Nature and the extraction of its resources).  In a recent essay China is Confident: How Realistic?, he observed that "countries (have lost the ability) to control what happens to them in the ongoing life of the modern world-system."

These two paragraphs get to the essence of his analysis…

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