Summit At Sea: Liveblog

For the next few days (until we fly back for this year's Peak Prosperity seminar in Rowe, MA), Chris and I will be attending the Summit At Sea, an exclusive investment conference produced by Robert Helms and Russell Grey, aka. The Real Estate Guys.

We'll be delivering the messages of The Crash Course and Prosper! later today to the two hundred attendees here. Other notable speakers at the event include folks like G. Edward Griffin (author of The Creature From Jekyll Island), Peter Schiff, Doug Duncan (chief economist of Fannie Mae), Simon Black (Sovereign Man), Robert Kiyosaki, and, little surprise, a number of well-respected real estate investors.

Wi-fi and power access depending, we plan to live blog the insights we learn from our fellow speakers over the next few days.

Our notes appear below. We'll update them throughout the day as the presentations are given (and the wi-fi holds out!).

Dr. Doug Duncan: Will Policy Change Extend The Expansion?

• He's responsible for all forecasts & analysis on the economy, housing and mortgage markets for Fannie Mae
• Our current economic expansion is the 3rd longest ever (if it goes 2 years longer, it will be the longest in US history)
• His key focus: Will policy changes extend the expansion from here? (tax cuts, deregulation, trade reforms, defense spending, etc)
• What's going to matter is the nature, magnitude & sequencing of future policy changes
• Immigration matters a lot in real estate as there's already a construction labor shortage. 15% of current construction workers are illegal. If we start placing more focus on deportation, workers shortages will likely worsen.
• Fannie Mae notices that there is big disconnect between the length of this expansion and consumer attitudes. The majority of consumers feel the economy is "headed in the wrong direction". Despite the length of this expansion, it's been the weakest in terms of GDP and consumer income growth. 
• Fannie Mae is skeptical that Trump will be able to get the Republican politicians to act in unison. "Even though there's an R in the White House, an R-controlled Senate, and an R-controlled House — don't think they're all from the same alphabet"
• Fannie Mae predicts Q1 2017 GDP growth will be ~1%, a big slowdown from Q4 2016.